FB is said to rely heavily on IQ, so with a C- DII program at Tarleton State (in a conference with Tark wins leader dcy and with daveredden and notchflaw's powerhouses) I have put together, through recruiting, redshirting, and the occasional JuCo, twelve mediocre players.  Six freshmen, four sophomores, two redshirt sophomores.

So I've got here three years of using the exact same roster.  These guys are not world-beaters and I'm not expecting toooo much, but two years from now, I'll have the most experienced roster possible (I suppose I could have one or two more RS sophs) for a team with twelve human-recruited players, playing FB/zone.  I'll be in a strong conference and I'm a solid coach.  Sooooo it's prediction time.

1) Will T State make the NT, PIT, or neither when the players are sophomores and juniors?
2) How deep in the NT will they go as juniors and seniors?
3a) How much money will I have to recruit my next class of 6?
3b) and what prestige will I have to recruit it?
4) How many games against human coaches will I win this year?
5) Given that I have one under-.500 year at DIII and two roughly-.500 years at DII going into this three-year experiment, what will it take to make it to DI after the current freshmen graduate (that is, after the So-Fr, Ju-So, Sr-Jr, and Sr-Frosh years)?



I'll be trying to prove some of you wrong and live up to some of your expectations - I know I'm gaming the system here, but I'm wondering how much it can even be gamed.  I've got twelve players here with significant room for growth, but I want to see what a good-but-not-great coach can do with twelve C- or worse prestige players given three years to work with them.

Also, yes, that is a DII team with an overall under 500.

I hope those guy are going to improve in speed because other wise your fastbreak wont be very fast.

Still I think you will at least make the NT. Its too hard to predict how much farther you will go without seeing how much your guys improve.

Posted by blackdog3377 on 11/22/2011 11:52:00 AM (view original):
I hope those guy are going to improve in speed because other wise your fastbreak wont be very fast.

most of them are high or high-high, yeah.  but worst-case scenario, it's a slowbreak.  That's totally a thing, right?

check out this D2 team recruited by sims and taken over by a great human coach: Tiffin (http://whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=13368) 

...You realize that I've played this game before, right?

You asked, people answered in good faith.  If all you wish to do is play see-I told you so, respondents are wasting their time.   In general, as Yogi said, predicting is really difficult, especially if its's about the future. 

I predict I will kick your *** with my DIII team this afternoon.....


Seriously, I have had a fair amount of fast break success in DII.   I would recommend going up tempo as soon as you get a STAMINA  advantage.  

Success in the NT all boils down to your advantage in ATH and SPD.    If you have a real 7-8 advantage in both categories you'll win, pretty much regardless of what the other team does.  When it gets down to 2-3, the rebounding starts to really hurt.   

I would think you'll get to the Sweet 16 the last two years if they develop enough, winning past that all depends on how good they are and who you draw.

Posted by tedlukacs on 11/23/2011 9:29:00 AM (view original):
You asked, people answered in good faith.  If all you wish to do is play see-I told you so, respondents are wasting their time.   In general, as Yogi said, predicting is really difficult, especially if its's about the future. 

Most people answered in good faith, but you said one thing that was obvious and one thing that both obvious and completely unrelated to anything.

So I feel like some snark in your direction is warranted.

And Joe, if you don't beat my *** this afternoon, we'll have to see if we can institute firings at the DIII level.

to quote my mom, " I have been fired by nicer places than this!"