DI - A+ prestige vs. B+ prestige -- recruit is equidistant from both schools (under 200 miles), and his childhood favorite is neither school.  A+ school spends 71K, plus a promise of a start.  Assuming no use of booster gifts, what is the minimum that the B+ school can spend, and win the battle?  At least $100K, right?

Definitely over $100K.

John - are you finding that is not the case?  It seems like that is a number that has been getting smaller over time, at one time I thought the factor for a grade to be 2x which I know is no longer even close to true, now we are saying we think it is at least over 1.4 (which would imply over 99.4k), I am pretty sure LM once said it is 1.7 (which would imply 120k is required). 

Is the timing of the money being spent equal - i.e. is someone chasing the other, or has it been a back and forth as it seems considering credit is also a factor that maybe used to not be????

Also going to depend on how high that A+ is isn't it? Since it doesn't have a top? If the A+ just barely qualifies as an A+... or could have been an A+ baseline with a couple final-4s and a N-Title.

I'd say about $100-105k.  It could be more if the B+ isn't a super high B+ and if the A+ isn't a super low A+. 

OR -- I don't know, although I agree that the multiplier for a grade level in prestige seems to have silently shrunk over time.  I thought that the multiplier was at least 1.5, and I don't see how the B+ school had over 100K to spend on the recruit, given the number of schollys it had available.  Maybe I misjudged the bankroll.  Or maybe booster gifts were used, which of course throws everything out of whack.

I've always used the LostMyth 1.7 factor or about 23%-per-step, but I have noticed in the past few seasons on Knight and Phelan that the numbers haven't worked out and I have lost a couple of battles I should have won. I must agree with johnsensing that they have quietly reduced the prestige value in recruiting.

Posted by reinsel on 12/6/2011 10:36:00 AM (view original):
I'd say about $100-105k.  It could be more if the B+ isn't a super high B+ and if the A+ isn't a super low A+. 

reinsel, I think this is a very low estimate. That would mean a multiplier of just over 1.4x. That's not the case.

OR, etc ... I would be stunned if this has changed. They hadn't been working on the game at all, there's just no way they were playing with this at the same time they were ignoring everything. The 2x estimate that had been floating around was always high. I agree with LM's 1.7 to 1.75x for a situation like this, and it has yet to fail me. I actually had one recently that followed this almost exactly (exchanged figures afterwards).

Posted by girt25 on 12/7/2011 10:40:00 AM (view original):

Posted by reinsel on 12/6/2011 10:36:00 AM (view original):
I'd say about $100-105k.  It could be more if the B+ isn't a super high B+ and if the A+ isn't a super low A+. 

reinsel, I think this is a very low estimate. That would mean a multiplier of just over 1.4x. That's not the case.

OR, etc ... I would be stunned if this has changed. They hadn't been working on the game at all, there's just no way they were playing with this at the same time they were ignoring everything. The 2x estimate that had been floating around was always high. I agree with LM's 1.7 to 1.75x for a situation like this, and it has yet to fail me. I actually had one recently that followed this almost exactly (exchanged figures afterwards).

girt, i've followed that 1.7 number in the past, but I just don't think the math works here.  The B+ school (Ole Miss in Knight) had 5 schollys open -- at the start of recruiting I had approx $123K with 6 schollys open, and that was with approx. 4K carryover, so, before his carryover, he likely had about 104K.  He managed to sign 2 other recruits as well (I assume he spent $4K total on them, if that).  1.7x my 71K effort is about $121K .  So, one of 3 things is going on here, since I don't see how the math works otherwise: (a) Ole Miss used booster gifts; (b) the full letter grade multiplier is less than 1.7; (c) Ole Miss had an 80K nut carried over from the year before.

I'll email the Ole Miss coach, see what he says.

Could be a combination of things, too ... booster gifts (not accusing this coach, just saying), significant carryover for him, perhaps he spent the money more effectively.

Even if he just had $10K carryover and nothing else, that would bump the multiplier up to 1.55x, which is getting pretty close to LM's magical 1.7x. The only serious DI battle that I've lost that I can remember was this situation exactly, I thought I had all the angles figured out, and it turned out that the other coach had $12K in carryover. Whoops ...

this has never changed. the value has always been the same, at least since i've been here. i always tell prospect coaches, you know, the d1 value of prestige is not that big. but does it help you to know that? who knows. you have to play on perceptions. if people perceive the value is 2.0, then it is 2.0. of course, its not really 2.0. i think some of these ridiculously high numbers came out of a bad assumption that prestige scales linearly, which is not the case. its EXTREMELY difficult to value prestige when you have battles within 1 letter grade. for example, this 1 letter grade can really be 2/3rds of a grade with high b+ and low a+. or it can be 1 and 1/3rd grades with low b+ and high a+. thats a factor of two difference!

so, the best examples are those 2 prestige grade very rare ones. but if you scale linearly, you are going to be way off. lostmyth thought prestige was linear. so that should give you some insight into the accuracy of his number.

IMO, the only way to be confident in your numbers is either 1) look at a large number of cases, and 2) get lucky with your cases,which is dangerous - but if you can identify that value of prestige closer than what you know just off prestige itself - for example, if you  knew that b+ and a+ were both on the low end - then you would be able to extrapolate based on that. sometimes, what happens is you have a 1 partial grade battle, and it makes no sense. the average prestige cannot explain how the lower team won. so you sometimes find yourself in cases where you say, ok, this makes no sense at the average, this must be a close to maximum difference of 2/3rds grade, or whatever it is. then, you have a good basis to continue. you should AWLAYS calculate the range of prestiges that make sense when you consider a battle like this. over time, as you get more and more ranges, you see the answer. so when you say well this one mandates the range is 1.7 to 2.3. doesnt help. 6 months later, a battle gives you a 1.5 to 2.1 range. you get 5 more ranges, and one or two are 1.9 to 2.5. now you know its probably a value of 2. i just cant see any other way of getting there... its complicated by a number of other unknowns, 3 out of 4 times you see a battle posted on the forums, bad information goes into figuring the prestige range. so you really have to work all of the unknowns, and your values will all converge together. probably takes 10-20 battle examinations to get there.

note: if you want to leverage what other coaches post, look at their other key assumptions. lostmyth posts very interesting numbers for HV:CV as well. and, you know he is always a high prestige player. and, you know his prestige scales linearly. if you really think through what that might imply about his perception of prestige, and measure in the value of his bad assumptions, you could make a guess that is surprisingly accurate.

Posted by johnsensing on 12/6/2011 9:08:00 AM (view original):
DI - A+ prestige vs. B+ prestige -- recruit is equidistant from both schools (under 200 miles), and his childhood favorite is neither school.  A+ school spends 71K, plus a promise of a start.  Assuming no use of booster gifts, what is the minimum that the B+ school can spend, and win the battle?  At least $100K, right?

back to the original question, is it really equidistant? same distance range can be off by 5% or so, maybe as much as 10% , and with these large numbers, you generally should not ignore that.

also, you leave out an absolutely critical part of the equation. what recruiting tools were primarily used? at least, what did you use? if your play was sub optimal, say you used a 50/50mix of HV and CV, then in the best case of everything (other team was slightly closer, prestige grade is small, and the other coach played optimally), the other coach could have spent as little at 75-80k.

Posted by johnsensing on 12/7/2011 11:05:00 AM (view original):

Posted by girt25 on 12/7/2011 10:40:00 AM (view original):

Posted by reinsel on 12/6/2011 10:36:00 AM (view original):
I'd say about $100-105k.  It could be more if the B+ isn't a super high B+ and if the A+ isn't a super low A+. 

reinsel, I think this is a very low estimate. That would mean a multiplier of just over 1.4x. That's not the case.

OR, etc ... I would be stunned if this has changed. They hadn't been working on the game at all, there's just no way they were playing with this at the same time they were ignoring everything. The 2x estimate that had been floating around was always high. I agree with LM's 1.7 to 1.75x for a situation like this, and it has yet to fail me. I actually had one recently that followed this almost exactly (exchanged figures afterwards).

girt, i've followed that 1.7 number in the past, but I just don't think the math works here.  The B+ school (Ole Miss in Knight) had 5 schollys open -- at the start of recruiting I had approx $123K with 6 schollys open, and that was with approx. 4K carryover, so, before his carryover, he likely had about 104K.  He managed to sign 2 other recruits as well (I assume he spent $4K total on them, if that).  1.7x my 71K effort is about $121K .  So, one of 3 things is going on here, since I don't see how the math works otherwise: (a) Ole Miss used booster gifts; (b) the full letter grade multiplier is less than 1.7; (c) Ole Miss had an 80K nut carried over from the year before.

I'll email the Ole Miss coach, see what he says.

john, your analysis is not bad, but it is flawed. you are looking at the prestige difference as 1 grade. that could be way off (and probably is). when you have extreme situations like this, it presents an EXCELLENT opportunity for learning. i really doubt the other coach used boosters here. maybe he did. if so, you will probably know soon enough. you just have to find a way to make the numbers work. so for starters, if you use 1.7, that is 1.2 per partial grade, multiplied by number of grades. 2 partial grades is, 1.42. so 1.42 times your 71k effort is 101K.

so, you say distance is the same. is it really? 5% or 5k could be the difference here.

then, you have to look at what is always the potential for a massive factor. effectiveness of spending. in recruiting, big battles, there are a big 4 factors - any of which can be the largest factor: 1) prestige. 2) distance. 3) starting money. 4) effectiveness of spending. you looked at the other 3. so how effectively did you spend your money? dollars to donuts, thats your problem. say you spend 10% less effectively. this cuts 101k to 90k, a feasible figure.

but, say you spent all HV. then, you know you played optimally. assuming the other coach played optimally, somethings got to give. you know most of the information, what piece of information are you least sure of? well, prestige is one. the starting budget of the other coach is suspect as well. you are factoring in 0 carry over. maybe you know that figure, maybe you don't. its not unusual to have 20k rolled over, or 5k for the next year. maybe that 5k plus the other school actually being slightly closer (which may or may not be true - in fact - you are better off from an analysis purpose if YOU were closer, because then you know for sure one of your core assumptions is really off). so if thats 5k+5k or 10k, it could make up the difference - even with this 1.7 prestige grade. that prestige grade is wrong, but should you believe me? no. carry this analysis through all the way, and do 5 more like it, and you will know it yourself - which is way better.

the trick to figuring this stuff out is making sure you have all of the variables. and, that you think about all of the ranges. start with the big 4 i mentioned. what are the total possible ranges on those values? prestige is really 2 sided coin. there is the value of prestige per letter grade or partial grade, and then, the prestige difference. both are unknowns, so that is really a big 5. what you want to do is come up with all the ranges, and make sure the end result (you losing) makes sense at some point when you combine the high ends of the ranges, and the low ends. in this case, it does. if it doesn't, you have a bad assumption, and have to go back and learn more. but say you look at it and think things are feasible. well, you might figure in the end, the coach could have had to spend anywhere between 90k and 200k. but he only could have spent slightly more than 90. well, now you know thatfo almost every single one of the ranges, the true value is on the low end. that would be huge - you'd get all 5 answers close, all at once. but if not, you still want to come up with some statements in the end. you may conclude, well, if prestige is 1.7, then home visit to campus visit ratio is 2:1. if prestige is 1.5, hv:cv is 3:1. and so on. then as you get more information later, you will be able to use it to make conclusions in other areas. not sure if that makes any sense....

so, i would ask you the following: what is the maximum amount of prestige difference here? what is the minimum amount? and then, what are the maximum and minimum values on prestige grades you think are reasonable?

on distance, you should have an exact value, because in the same range of distance, you can do so. if not, that is another huge factor - same distance battles are therefore way better to consider, and they are where i figured out all the stuff i figured out.

on quality of spending you money, what is the best case? what is the worst case? could he have been more efficient than you? by how much. obviously the weights of recruiting tools are a huge factor here.

on the total budget he had - what is the best case? what is the worst case?

on other factors - what else could there be?

if you answer those questions id be more than happy to point out what you are missing. once you have the limits of the situation, if you will, and are confident in there, that is when it is time to try to draw conclusions. but until you have all the limits, you don't know if what you conclude will be worth anything anyway.

Nice to see you back Billy.

Posted by dcy0827 on 12/8/2011 11:35:00 AM (view original):
Nice to see you back Billy.

thanks :) it was time.