As I was looking at box scores of my Nebraska Wesleyan team and I noticed my backup center having good games (7 games over 10 pts, 1 over 20) it made me think, should I be starting him? 

That gave me an idea for HD and I don't know if anyone has brought this up before... hot and cold streaks. What if your players went through hot and cold streaks and maybe you moved up a bench player because he has been on fire and one of your starters is struggling? 

I just thought about it because it seems I set my starting lineup and it doesn't really change unless someone has huge growth.

Thoughts? If this is stupid I apologize, just thinking of ways to make HD more realistic.  

No need to apologize. I personally haven't heard this idea discussed, some of the veterans may have. I like the idea but not sure how you would program it in. Would it need to be a new rating that when the player plays well it goes up, and when they have a few bad games it goes down? Like a scale thats built into their rating system.

random variation can give the appearance of this - but I think it would be hard to design a good scheme for streakiness....

My understanding is that each game is modelled separately from all others - no streaks, no fatuige etc etc

Posted by mamxet on 12/9/2011 10:46:00 AM (view original):
random variation can give the appearance of this - but I think it would be hard to design a good scheme for streakiness....

My understanding is that each game is modelled separately from all others - no streaks, no fatuige etc etc

We do have hot/cold streaks ...its called random variation.   Just use your imagination!!!!

You could do something like:

Player A has hit (by random variation) 5 consecutive shots.  For each his next 5 attempts, his probability of making will be increased by 10%, after which it will reset to 0 (or over a span of X minutes/end of a half/time out/etc).

Player B has missed 5 consecutive, so his probability of making his next 5 shots will be decreased 10% (or over a span of X minutes/end of half/time out/etc).

The hard part comes in with distribution and other game areas, as people would inevitably say they want their hot shooters to have an increased distro and their cold shooters to shoot less.  So you could add two new columns to the distro for hot and cold settings, or have a team wide setting to adjust distro by so many points for hot/cold shooters.  Also people would say they'd want their team to automatically call a time out if a shooter on the opposing team gets hot or leave a cold shooter uncovered, things like that.  Also, should it be harder for a center (shooting from 5 feet) to get hot in comparison to a SG (shooting from 20 feet)?

It's possible, just would require covering a lot of different areas and doing a lot of testing to make sure there aren't ways to game the system.

Here is a cold streak for ya, look at my last 5 games:

http://whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Schedule.aspx?tid=13759

Posted by ryrun on 12/9/2011 2:00:00 PM (view original):
You could do something like:

Player A has hit (by random variation) 5 consecutive shots.  For each his next 5 attempts, his probability of making will be increased by 10%, after which it will reset to 0 (or over a span of X minutes/end of a half/time out/etc).

Player B has missed 5 consecutive, so his probability of making his next 5 shots will be decreased 10% (or over a span of X minutes/end of half/time out/etc).

The hard part comes in with distribution and other game areas, as people would inevitably say they want their hot shooters to have an increased distro and their cold shooters to shoot less.  So you could add two new columns to the distro for hot and cold settings, or have a team wide setting to adjust distro by so many points for hot/cold shooters.  Also people would say they'd want their team to automatically call a time out if a shooter on the opposing team gets hot or leave a cold shooter uncovered, things like that.  Also, should it be harder for a center (shooting from 5 feet) to get hot in comparison to a SG (shooting from 20 feet)?

It's possible, just would require covering a lot of different areas and doing a lot of testing to make sure there aren't ways to game the system.

Might as well be playing NBA Jam.

He's ON FIRE!