Is there a list anywhere on HBD that shows ranges of what 1st Year, 2nd Year and 3rd Year Arbitration numbers could be? I know that it varies depending on performance, but is there a set range or is it completely random?

If there is no set range, can anybody please list, from experience, what they think is an accurate range of arbitration demands for Year 1, Year 2 and Year 3.  What I"m trying to do is predict future payroll based on keeping my current, very young team intact.


Thanks!

year 1 ranges from 327k to 3 mil, year 2 ranges from 1.5 to 5 mil, year 3 ranges from 3 to 12 mil

Thanks shobob. I have been looking at some of the better players in my league and most players asked between $1.3M - $1.9M the first year. However, most owners sign good players to long-term deals after Year 1 of Arbitration. Most of those long-term deals are for 5 years and between $8M-$10M.

Whether it's good practice or not (I'm not sure), I tend to sign players to long term goals only at the 3rd year of arb.  One thing that I have noticed that happens is that players' long-term annual demands rose somewhat when I waited until the 3rd year instead of the 2nd.  Since I didn't plan this as a study, I can't tell you how much, but my impression is that the same player's long-term deal will cost 10-15% more the 3rd year than it would the 2nd.  So what you save by arbing you may end up plowing back into salary the following years.

... but if the player is good enough, it's worth paying a bit more to lock him up for one more season.

I always sign the guys I'm keeping in the third arb year.  If they aren't good enough, I'll arb 'em thrice, and see if I can get them back through free agency.

Posted by shobob on 1/8/2012 11:34:00 AM (view original):
year 1 ranges from 327k to 3 mil, year 2 ranges from 1.5 to 5 mil, year 3 ranges from 3 to 12 mil

These are good guidelines, but they're not gospel.  First of all, I've seen a number of players ask for more than $5M their second season; I'd have set $8M as the cap there.  Also, any time a player is a marginal player, reliever of < 50-60 IP or position player with < 200-250 PA (both those numbers are guesses), the player will simply ask to maintain his current salary at arb regardless of season.

Posted by shobob on 1/8/2012 8:43:00 PM (view original):
I always sign the guys I'm keeping in the third arb year.  If they aren't good enough, I'll arb 'em thrice, and see if I can get them back through free agency.

+1, unless I somehow feel as though I only want the guy for five seasons more when he asks for his second year of arb, which is rare.

I've also seen guys ask for the league minimum.  I think it's a bug, though.

Posted by burnsy483 on 1/9/2012 10:10:00 AM (view original):
I've also seen guys ask for the league minimum.  I think it's a bug, though.

It's not a bug, it's a "feature." 

Seriously-- I sent a ticket about it and was told that this is intentional programming for when players play very little (see my response above).

Yeah.  I arbed Carlos Sanchez 3 times at $360k before I traded him.  Marginal player.

Gerald Sinclair  just demanded $8.8m in Arb2 in Greenberg.  Two other Arb2 guys on that team also got in excess of $5m, and a 4th guy asked for it, but lost his arb case and got $4.75m instead.  So $5m doesn't seem like a ceiling on Arb2 requests at all.

I stand corrected.

Actually, I was sitting