This game is crazy.

Twice I've drafted Coveleski 1917, and both times he's been awful.

The last time I gave up on him when he was 5-13 with a 1.47 WHIP.

I replaced him with Mathewson 1911 who so far is 12-7 with a 1.34 WHIP.

Here's the thing: Coveleski '17 has an ERC# of 1.98 and WHIP# of 1.05, whereas Matty '11 is only 2.65 and 1.12, respectively.

Small samples or not, that's a huge discrepancy.

These small samples add up to big samples. We've all had these experiences. My latest bomb is Babe Adams 1920 and 1921. He has terrific stats both seasons but when I used him in a progressive, he was awful. Both seasons. I'm convinced that there are MANY players with data entry errors so that we see a .228 OAV but in the database he has a .328 or .288 or something. Which may explain why guys like Addie Joss 1908 are so outstanding. He's good but not THAT good. The data entry error in Joss' case must work in his favor. In the end, you have to try them several times to reach your own conclusions. Performance History helps, too.

It seems to me that it's all about matchup's.
I've had pitchers who have been outstanding in one league, while being an epic failure in another. The only difference would be that the pitcher is facing entirely different batters from one league to another. 

Posted by CarlosVal on 2/20/2012 2:22:00 PM (view original):
These small samples add up to big samples. We've all had these experiences. My latest bomb is Babe Adams 1920 and 1921. He has terrific stats both seasons but when I used him in a progressive, he was awful. Both seasons. I'm convinced that there are MANY players with data entry errors so that we see a .228 OAV but in the database he has a .328 or .288 or something. Which may explain why guys like Addie Joss 1908 are so outstanding. He's good but not THAT good. The data entry error in Joss' case must work in his favor. In the end, you have to try them several times to reach your own conclusions. Performance History helps, too.

I believe this also applies to 1915 Dave Davenport.  The guy has great normalized numbers ( 196 ERC+, 1.95 ERC#), but not only has he been a dud for me, I've also seen him in OLs where he was slapped around like a redhaired stepchild. 

matchups, ballparks, and luck

While doing a search for a stud pitcher in the draft center I came up with 1969 Marichal but after seeing him play in an open league with another squad, he stunk it up

I've never used him, but I'm gonna try him on my next OL team.

A couple of things I don't like about him is his IP/G of 6.63, He does not normalize well in that his ERC#, OAV#, WHIP#, BB/9#, ERA# are all higher than his RL stats, and I don't believe 1917 AL was a big triples year so he probably does not normalize there well either. I don't know what park you used before but he should do well in Yankee III with its -3 3B rating. Park, usage, and competition seem to be determining his fate in these leagues.

I had a similar experience with him, in the Astrodome?......of all places.

Definitely worth a try.  His value is that he like 10 Russ Ford are two of the few 300+ ip deadball pitchers with OAVs (performance history and actual) that are actually lower than 08 Joss.  The difference is the walks.  Finding teams(low walking) and stadiums (pitchers parks where less hits means less walks turning into runs) where walks don't hurt you as much on the schedule could turn him into a super value.