I'm pretty sure you need at least a .500 record to make the NT. It's still early, but it looks like your non-con schedule is fairly easy and your conference schedule, with a bunch of ranked teams, will be tougher, so your sos should be ok. But again, it's too early to really tell.
I've never done the mentoring thing before, but I've had some success at the D3 level and I'll gladly answer any questions you have. Send me a sitemail with your questions and I'll do my best to give you accurate info.