We are nearing the end of the 1974 season, and we are identifying keepers for the league. The Boston Red Sox are available.
This league uses a special anti-tank formula to determine the next year's first round draft order. It essentially uses a team's overall salary relative to everyone else's to determine predictive wins. A team's performance against the prediction determines the first round draft order. The draft order is determined after game 162. Later rounds just use record (worst to first).
A snapshot of the teams salaries is taken every 20 games, and based on that, calculated how many wins a team should be expected to win. Then, from that expectation, the draft order for the first round is determined by a score based on actual wins against expected a team gets. The higher the score, or the more wins than expected, the better. And, as the season goes on and the actual wins start to add up, the numbers start to reach the positive side of the spectrum. Please note - the initial actual win scores relative to expected can vary wildly over 20 games as projections are based on smaller numbers - as the season progresses, it becomes better at estimating. As a team, you want to try to meet or beat your expected win total to be in the top 12, and beat it by 10% or more to be in the top 6.
There is also a column in the charts for Target Wins (Discussed more thoroughly below). For reference sake, I will be using a score of 20 as the target goal.
*As a reminder, the salary used in the Score formula is the league median salary from the Season Salary chart.
The formula:
TeamSal= Each team's salary averaged out over 8 snapshots across the season
LgSal= Each leagues salary averaged (median) out over same 8 snapshots across the season
OppLgSal= Opposing leagues salary averaged (median) out over the same 8 snapshots across the season
(%)= ((((LgSal*(138/162))+(OppLgSal*(24/162)))-TeamSal)/LgSal)
AcW= each team's actual wins during the season
ExpW= ((76*-(%)+76) (152 games is when the season draft order is determined)
Multiplier= (1+(%))
AdjW= (AcW*Multiplier)
TrgtW20= ((ExpW+(ExpW*0.2))/Multiplier)
TrgtW30= ((ExpW+(ExpW*0.3))/Multiplier)
Score= ((((AdjW-ExpW)/AdjW)*100))
5/8/2012 12:17 PM (edited)