Phelan Early Exit... why? Topic

buddhagamer
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Using the new EE logic, my Washington State team lost my sophmore PF to EE.

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153114

While he was very good, I thought it would consider my post-season success which for the past two seasons were 2 first round NT exits (and zero CT championships).  While other teams which have higher prestige and advance farther either don't lose any or just lose a similar guy.

He better be a top 5 draft pick and get me to a A- prestige wise otherwise this is gonna suck alot.
6/27/2012 10:31 AM
professor17
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His average rating is 94 in the 5 most important categories for big men. This seems like a reasonable EE, regardless of class or post-season success. Now if there are players out there that have a similar average for the 5 most important cores, from a team that went further in the post-season, and didn't go EE, that might warrant a second look. But as an isolated case, I don't have a problem with this guy going EE as a sophomore.
6/27/2012 10:39 AM
buddhagamer
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Here's two from Duke who's already an A+ program, went to the S16 and lost zero to EE:

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152464

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152466

I'm not doubting that he wasn't EE worthy... but I pretty much had to fight for my recruits tooth and nail just to get the two studs I had while an A+ program who loses 1 can pretty much go out and get any new 5 star recruit they want.

6/27/2012 10:50 AM
professor17
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Both of those players are guards, who would have been undervalued under the old EE system and probably not gone early. I wonder if the new changes to EE don't get applied until after the rollover, so that it doesn't take effect until next season? 
6/27/2012 11:15 AM
buddhagamer
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I believe Seble said the only changes that wasn't going to take effect immediately was the increased limit to 6 players to prevent EE (and also not counting the 1 year transfer in that total).

His post in the Tarkanian Early Exit thread states:

Just to clarify:  the only rule that is put off for a season is the one related to the max players that a team can lose.  The changes to the ranking logic and the decision logic will take effect the next time early entries are decided.

HOWEVER, early entries are decided right after the National Championship game, so that would have happened under the old logic for Tark.  Naismith and Phelan ended this morning, so their early entry process did use the new logic.

I know the timing of things can be confusing, so I hope this helps.

So if we're using the new EE logic that shouldn't care about big men vs. guard I'm still unsure why I got hit with EE after a first round NT exit while others with higher prestige/deeper NT run/as good players (never mind their juniors) aren't effected.

As it is, I think I'm going to probably go backwards now with essentially only 1 good player on my roster now.


 
6/27/2012 11:33 AM
professor17
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There is a big problem then... of the 17 EE's in Phelan, ZERO were guards. The new logic does not appear to be working as intended, if it was supposed to take effect last night.
6/27/2012 11:36 AM
seble
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Posted by buddhagamer on 6/27/2012 10:50:00 AM (view original):

Here's two from Duke who's already an A+ program, went to the S16 and lost zero to EE:

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152464

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2152466

I'm not doubting that he wasn't EE worthy... but I pretty much had to fight for my recruits tooth and nail just to get the two studs I had while an A+ program who loses 1 can pretty much go out and get any new 5 star recruit they want.

McLeod would have gone early, but just decided to stay.  That is still part of the process, where a player will opt to stay.
6/27/2012 12:46 PM
seble
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Posted by buddhagamer on 6/27/2012 10:31:00 AM (view original):
Using the new EE logic, my Washington State team lost my sophmore PF to EE.

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153114

While he was very good, I thought it would consider my post-season success which for the past two seasons were 2 first round NT exits (and zero CT championships).  While other teams which have higher prestige and advance farther either don't lose any or just lose a similar guy.

He better be a top 5 draft pick and get me to a A- prestige wise otherwise this is gonna suck alot.
Your team success actually did reduce Clayton's draft stock a bit, but his ratings were still good enough to overcome that. 

It's important to keep in mind that we're really splitting hairs when comparing this caliber of player.  Often a guy will get drafted in the first round that is only marginally better than a player that doesn't make the draft.
6/27/2012 12:49 PM
zhawks
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Posted by seble on 6/27/2012 12:49:00 PM (view original):
Posted by buddhagamer on 6/27/2012 10:31:00 AM (view original):
Using the new EE logic, my Washington State team lost my sophmore PF to EE.

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153114

While he was very good, I thought it would consider my post-season success which for the past two seasons were 2 first round NT exits (and zero CT championships).  While other teams which have higher prestige and advance farther either don't lose any or just lose a similar guy.

He better be a top 5 draft pick and get me to a A- prestige wise otherwise this is gonna suck alot.
Your team success actually did reduce Clayton's draft stock a bit, but his ratings were still good enough to overcome that. 

It's important to keep in mind that we're really splitting hairs when comparing this caliber of player.  Often a guy will get drafted in the first round that is only marginally better than a player that doesn't make the draft.
I agree that it is splitting hairs sometimes, maybe we could get messages from players who 'would have left but decided to stay' saying "After a long decision and thoughts with my family I've decided to come back for my [insert class year] year at [insert school]". This could be the sign that the kid (if he isn't going to be a senior) has a higher chance to leave next year.
6/27/2012 1:30 PM
m4284850
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Posted by zhawks on 6/27/2012 1:30:00 PM (view original):
Posted by seble on 6/27/2012 12:49:00 PM (view original):
Posted by buddhagamer on 6/27/2012 10:31:00 AM (view original):
Using the new EE logic, my Washington State team lost my sophmore PF to EE.

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=2153114

While he was very good, I thought it would consider my post-season success which for the past two seasons were 2 first round NT exits (and zero CT championships).  While other teams which have higher prestige and advance farther either don't lose any or just lose a similar guy.

He better be a top 5 draft pick and get me to a A- prestige wise otherwise this is gonna suck alot.
Your team success actually did reduce Clayton's draft stock a bit, but his ratings were still good enough to overcome that. 

It's important to keep in mind that we're really splitting hairs when comparing this caliber of player.  Often a guy will get drafted in the first round that is only marginally better than a player that doesn't make the draft.
I agree that it is splitting hairs sometimes, maybe we could get messages from players who 'would have left but decided to stay' saying "After a long decision and thoughts with my family I've decided to come back for my [insert class year] year at [insert school]". This could be the sign that the kid (if he isn't going to be a senior) has a higher chance to leave next year.
+1
6/27/2012 1:59 PM
Phelan Early Exit... why? Topic
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