Trying to understand distro better Topic

bhansalid00
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I'm curious about my shot distribution in last night's game. I'm not asking about the outcome - just trying to figure out why one player got so many more FGA than the other. Here are the two guys:

Cessna (PF): 20 distro, played 25 mins, 5 FGA
Miller (PG): 20 distro, played 31 mins, 24 FGA

As far as who defended them (my opponent played M2M):
Cessna's primary defenders averaged 65 ath, 60 def, A- def IQ (I'm giving an approximate weighted average based on mins played)
Miller's primary defenders 67 ath, 65 spd, 60 def, B+ def IQ

Opponent's positioning:
-1 in the first half - Cessna took 2 FGA, Miller took 12
+1 in 2nd half - Cessna 3 FGA, Miller 12 FGA

So if their distros are equal and their defenders are of about equal quality, and defensive positioning didn't change their relative shooting, why did Miller take almost 4 times as many FGA / min as Cessna? Are there other important factors I'm missing?
9/24/2012 9:29 AM (edited)
mullycj
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According to ADMIN.   Game to game fluctuations in distro are to be expected as real life coaches can't control how many shots their players take.

IMO a crappy answer but it has support from many vets here.
9/24/2012 9:37 AM
milwood
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I don't think that it makes too much of a difference, but 1/3 (8) of Miller's shots were taken when Cessna was on the bench.  That and the engine just favors guards.  In order to get the same amount of shots, bigs need to either rebound a ton, Cessna did not, or the distribution has to be heavily weighted towards the big.
9/24/2012 9:54 AM
bhansalid00
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Thanks guys. Makes sense that Miller being a guard probably had something to do with it - and "game to game fluctuations" as well. Just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing something.
9/24/2012 10:44 AM
mizzou77
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What you're missing is how a lowsy 25point dog can beat you by nearly 10 on your own floor.
That entire game is one of those head-scratchers that has to be chalked up to the RNG going off on you.
I wouldn't put alot of weight into anything you see in that box-score.
9/24/2012 1:05 PM
reinsel
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I find Distro is something that changes from player to player.  Some guys are teen wolf types who take every shot they can get.  Others I crank up the distro and they refuse to be the team's leading scorer most nights.  Last year my leading scorer was getting 12% of the distro and my second leading scorer got 20% and my 3rd leading scorer got 25%.....the 3rd guy just refused to shoot and the first guy would take half the team's shots if he had 20% distro.

9/24/2012 4:46 PM
reddyred
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Posted by reinsel on 9/24/2012 4:46:00 PM (view original):

I find Distro is something that changes from player to player.  Some guys are teen wolf types who take every shot they can get.  Others I crank up the distro and they refuse to be the team's leading scorer most nights.  Last year my leading scorer was getting 12% of the distro and my second leading scorer got 20% and my 3rd leading scorer got 25%.....the 3rd guy just refused to shoot and the first guy would take half the team's shots if he had 20% distro.

It's good to find someone who thinks like I do for a change. I have a similar post to this that kind of got hijacked from me so I left it alone. I'll bump it and it's called Learning your team through Distro. I feel that in some ways, even though player personalities have been pulled from the game (recruiting wise I think was the only part of the game affected), that they may still exist within the engine in how certain players are treated. This is a great example above although my percentages are inverted. 

I had a bench guy getting 14.7% distro, 2nd highest on my team with one of the lowest distro settings in my team plan. Jtay on my Marshall team. He would just take a high volume of shots in respect to the time he actually spent on the court. I would consider him a "teen wolf" type, but as I said many coaches say this has been completely removed from the game. I still disagree. It's just good to see another coach with the same opinion. 


9/24/2012 7:02 PM
artie40
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I find that my distro settings matter very little as to how much my guys shoot. My better offensive players woill invariably shoot more.
9/25/2012 11:03 PM
namshub
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always remember distro is weighted with the versus the guys he's on the floor with so bench guys and starters will have different weights due to who is on the floor with them.
9/26/2012 9:43 PM
namshub
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and its never perfect.
9/26/2012 9:44 PM
mamxet
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key things on distro

1. as said above, it is relative to others on the floor at that moment - not measured over a game - I think of it as odds that a play gets run for a guy

2. plays can lead to shots, but they also can lead to free throws and turnovers - consider how many of those the guy got when considering whether it is "right"

3.  guys will get shots in situations that have nothing to do with distro - I think that events like offensive rebounds and steals can lead to shots on paths that dont go through the part of the engine that includes distro - your big guy who is a great rebounder and very athletic but cant shoot and is at a distro of 1 will still get some offensive rebounds.  I have always assumed - cause it makes sense - that when a guy gets an offensive rebound two feet from the basket he usually tries to put it back in and the engine does not look at the distro of the players on the floor before he does that

9/27/2012 9:24 AM
Trying to understand distro better Topic
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