Non-Conference SOS fail Topic

tdiddy3
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So in Rupp, I had a very powerful Long Island U. team and I came up with an idea to schedule teams that were in a major conference but were Sim AI run and were going to be easy wins, with the idea of having those teams have a good SOS with the hope that opponents' opponents having a good RPI would help me have a good RPI and not have to play a lot of strong teams.  I mixed in a couple pretty good teams to help out as well.

As you can see, my record is 23-1 with two probable wins against Sim AI remaining.  My RPI is 72 and my SOS is 289.  I have only 1 loss but at this point, I'm projected as a 7 seed.  

The moral of the story..... schedule only 1 or 2 certain wins from weak major conference teams as it won't help you if you beat them if they only win a couple games all season.  

 
Opponent Record RPI SOS Coach Record Against Spread Result  
09/05/12 pm at S. Mississippi 14-8 66 68 Weena 0-2   75-89 l
09/06/12 pm at N. Arizona 14-8 42 24 creilmann 2-0   83-79 w
 
Non-Conference
Date Opponent Record RPI SOS Coach Record Against Spread Result  
09/07/12 am Penn St. 4-19 232 58 timmytfk 1-0 -21 73-90 w
09/08/12 am at Maine 16-6 83 146 jtvaughey 1-1 -1 89-71 w
09/09/12 am Providence 1-21 234 32 steveatdsm 1-1 -25 66-110 w
09/10/12 am Michigan 6-18 187 34 oldwarrior 2-0 -7 61-79 w
09/11/12 am Baylor 2-22 190 7 Sim AI 1-1 -29 58-110 w
09/12/12 am Kansas St. 5-17 223 54 rodgerturner 1-2 -32 65-103 w
09/13/12 am Washington St. 0-22 246 23 Sim AI 1-1 -47 55-106 w
09/14/12 am Hawaii 5-19 123 3 Sim AI 1-0 -11 74-101 w
09/15/12 am at Butler 17-7 74 117 AceCards 2-1 -2 77-64 w
09/16/12 am N. Iowa 20-2 13 38 cburton23 0-1 -1 94-90 l
09/17/12 am Off Day                
 
Conference
Date Opponent Record RPI SOS Coach Record Against Spread Result  
09/18/12 am at Sacred Heart 12-10 95 87 sac_lambs 26-80 -12 86-67 w
09/19/12 am Fairleigh Dickinson 10-14 241 283 Sim AI 26-33 -27 60-106 w
09/20/12 am at Mt. St. Mary's 12-11 201 201 Sim AI 29-32 -14 108-80 w
09/21/12 am Quinnipiac 2-20 309 214 Sim AI 37-65 -57 75-120 w
09/22/12 am Robert Morris 8-14 267 265 Sim AI 22-36 -34 67-118 w
09/23/12 am at C. Connecticut St. 10-13 166 144 robbie04 43-59 -26 73-52 w
09/24/12 am at St. Francis of NY 8-14 239 284 trink119 26-33 -22 81-58 w
09/25/12 am Monmouth 12-11 161 189 Sim AI 45-55 -21 75-105 w
09/26/12 am Sacred Heart 12-10 95 87 sac_lambs 26-80 -12 68-94 w
09/27/12 am at St. Francis 17-5 80 186 Sim AI 35-68 -7 126-77 w
09/28/12 am Wagner 3-21 307 259 Sim AI 25-33 -54 78-124 w
09/29/12 am at Quinnipiac 2-20 309 214 Sim AI 37-65 -59 117-49 w
09/30/12 am at Stony Brook 13-10 185 253 Sim AI 38-30 -20 94-59 w
10/01/12 am C. Connecticut St. 10-13 166 144 robbie04 43-59 -23 59-101 w
10/02/12 am Off Day                
10/03/12 am Off Day                
10/04/12 am at Monmouth 12-11 161 189 Sim AI 45-55      
10/05/12 am St. Francis 17-5 80 186 Sim AI 35-68    
10/1/2012 10:44 PM
tarvolon
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Seems to me like the better plan is to schedule the very best teams from bad conferences. Yeah, they don't have great RPI, but they have great W/L records, so beating them boosts your SOS. The trick, of course, is predicting who will win the conferences (well, that and beating them)
10/1/2012 11:18 PM
m4284850
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The dumbest scheduling mistake that I see is people sheduling big 6 teams, that is KILLING your RPI and NT hopes.  The key to scheduling is sheduling teams who are going to win games.
10/1/2012 11:37 PM
gvsujulius
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Like this? http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=12835 I have been pleasantly surprised to have an RPI in the 50's right now.
10/2/2012 12:10 AM
cburton23
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Those teams are still a little low on the wins side Julius.  You want to find teams that are going to win at least 15 games if not 20.  Easier said than done though.  Taking the top teams from bad conferences usually helps, as long as you win, but even that can be a challenge as often times those coaches move up and you are left with a 500 SIM AI team.  I try and find the best teams in low major conferences that I feel I can beat, and hope for the best.  This year at UNI it has worked out, but it doesn't always.  A lot of it is dumb luck.  I just happened to put tdiddy on the schedule this year, in a year he goes 23-1.  That helps me out a lot, but if he schedules harder next year all of a sudden beating him doesn't help as much.  It can be a real crap shoot.
10/2/2012 9:56 AM
udm_mike
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The easiest way is to get in a conference full of humans, then it doesn't matter nearly as much who you schedule out of conference (as long as you get wins).
10/2/2012 10:12 AM
rednu
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Scheduling 8 of the 10 non-conference games as home games didn't help either. I can't remember what the multiplier is, but 16-10 home-away split would have a significant impact here on your RPI calculation.
10/2/2012 11:46 AM
udm_mike
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Guilford is open, rednu.
10/2/2012 12:49 PM
dahsdebater
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I'm confused as to why you ever thought playing crappy teams from good conferences would provide a good SOS.  2/3 of SOS is opponents' winning percentage.  Bad teams from good conferences have terrible winning percentages.  Even if the 1/3 of SOS composed of OOW% is great, it can't outweight the crappy 2/3.
10/2/2012 6:10 PM
Non-Conference SOS fail Topic
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