got a question in a world from somebody that frequently asks questions to get a better handle on the game as he's still relatively new.  This one, however stumped me:

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3571626

In any one season of his last 5, you could argue small sample size, but add up those 5 seasons and you're a litle shy of 200 innings, with a whip somewhere around .110, and a low 3.00s era (I didn't bother to do the math, just guessing based upon the numbers).  Seems like he should be a setup/B guy at best, but he's producing closer type results.

Thoughts?  Just lucky and keep rolling with it until it bucks you?  Am I missing something?

"Just lucky" seems to be the right answer.  His ratings in general are mediocre for a ML short reliever, and his pitches (69/52/31) suck for an ML short reliever.

I'd call it a fluke.

... And I'd say that 200 IP is still a pretty small sample size.  I'd guess that this guy has had some pretty good fielding teams behind him for those last few seasons.

The best thing going for him seems to be that he pitches less than an inning. (He's kind of like Exhibit A for the idea that any pitcher can get a Save.) He doesn't give up a lot of HRs or walks so that limits damage... but then, his ratings don't look like he'd be great at avoiding HRs or walks. It's a pretty long run of good luck.

That was kind of my thinking as well, since his overall is pretty low, his demands are going to be low, so you can resign him w/ limited exposure and see how the course runs, just not sure if there is something I'm missing.

Well, they do have this guy http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3945307 whose career ERA is 4.30, plus the closer is assumed to be paired with late-inning defensive replacements so as long as he's not constantly giving up taters then those stats are not necessarily unreasonable.  But the home run rate is something that should be considered luck since he pitches at Miller Park and only has a GB/FB rating of 49.