I have a continuing debate with myself that I thought I'd like to open up to public forum.  I'm a big fan of non-traditional lineups based on numbers analysis (such as:  Baseball Musings).  I'm susceptible to the line of thought that prefers building lineups from highest OBP in the 1st spot, to lowest OBP in the 9th, with some caveats.

But I also think OBP doesn't tell you quite everything you want to know about where to put a hitter.  A high-OBP hitter who's slow or a bad baserunner can clog up the basepaths or just miss opportunities to score from second on a single.  I currently have a perfect example on one of my teams, and I'm trying to figure out where to fit him in my lineup: Randy Waters.  .400+ cumulative OBP, but 28 speed and 49 base-running add up to a not-so-impressive run totals for his first to years.

I had him batting 2nd or 3rd for those first two seasons, but he only scored 88 and 76 runs on a top-5ish offense, while hitters with less impressive OBP (Ned Bailey, for example) scored many more runs, with comparable or better RBI numbers.

This season, I decided to bump Waters down.  But where should I put him?  He's obviously a very valuable contact hitter, and because he takes BB, also useful at keeping an inning going, even when he doesn't get a hit.  I'm thinking of putting him 6th.

Right now, my vs RHP lineup looks like this:

Bailey
Nen
Gao
Hart
Ladendorf
Waters
Rios
Pitcher
Rolle

Thoughts?  I'm not sure if I should put Waters before or after the big slugger Ladendorf.  I'm also not quite sure to do with the 3rd spot in the lineup.  I'm working off the theory that the 3rd spot sees the fewest opportunities with men-on-base, so I've only been putting my 5th or 6th best hitter there.

Well, it looks like I've stumped the chumps.

The baseball musings lineup analysis is nowhere close to accurate.

That team is 18-7 at this point. How much more optimized do you need it to be?

Personally, I would hit Gao-Hart-Ladendorff-Waters 3-4-5-6. I disagree on the #3 hitter and RBI opportunities. I am more concerned with the number of ABs through the the course of the season.

Also, I wouldn't recommend having a 0.400+ OBP hitter in the 6th slot unless u have 5 other high OBP hitters.  The worst hitter should bat 9th.  Why do u think the 3rd slot won't get many RBI opportunities?  The leadoff hitter will (most likely) have the least amount of RBI opportunities.  

I don't know how many players you have that get on base 40% of the time but it seems like you'd want to have good hitters behind them.

OK, here's what you've got.

2 guys that can run and can each kind of slap their way to a vaguely credible OPS against opposite handed pitchers
2 guys that can genuinely hit, one of whom just crushes LHP
2 solid but unspectacular hitters
A guy with 97 power but who is an out-making machine whenever the ball stays in the park
A SS who hits like a SS

The solution:
1)  "Platoon" Bailey and Rolle in the 1 and 8 positions.
2)  Hit Waters 2 and Nen 3.
3)  Keep Hart, Ladendorf, and Rios at 4, 5, and 7 where they are
4)  Hit Gao 6 until you find an RF with an OBP over 300, or at the very least a platoon partner for him.  By placing Gao and his marginal OBP but good power at the end of your serious offensive sequence (since you're getting nothing out of 7-8-9) you'll maximize his RBI and partially minimize the impact of his never being on base.

Thanks for the feedback, folks.  You've convinced me to put Waters back at the top of the lineup, though I'm still nagged by the fact that it seems everyone else I put there creates more runs.

To Dedelman, I'm already doing some of what you suggest.  I agree about Bailey and Rolle, and have been doing just that.  And I definitely platoon Gao out v LHP (Diaz).  

This is by far the most talented offensive roster I've had.  Everybody seems to overperform (Wrigley helps!) except Waters.  I've just been trying to figure him out...