Do you want to play a game?

How about 5? That's what I asked the Knight D2 power conferences. The result, now in its 7th season, is the Mega-Ultra-Super-Duper-Uber-Challenge

The short (ish) explanation is its a multi-conference, multi-game tournament where 6 teams from 6 conferences play 5 games against one another to see who's the baddest mo'f...(shut-yo-mouth!).  As part of the scheduling process I provide what I call RWOPR (Revised-Weighted Overall Power Rating) to help sort the teams into some kind of predicted pecking order for the next season. Conferences either run with this, or submit their own rankings. Previously all the like seeds played each other but we are using a staggered format suggested by one of the participating coaches (thanks rogelio!) now. 

The thing is - wopr isn't very good at predicting the future. I looked back at my conference over a few seasons and wopr only got the right top 6 about 1/2 of the time. It did pick the best team in the conference all but once (WOPR pick finished 2nd that season) but beyond that it got fuzzy. 

This is probably a really specialized type request, but does anyone out there have any interest in helping me figure out something that is better at predicting the future? 


- more brief details - wopr doesn't account for incoming recruits (obviously). it doesn't care about position (I have another something I was working on and if anyone wants to get involved in this I'll go into more detail). it doesn't care if the coach or team has been in the NT 12 seasons in a row. it is based on OVR, which is a relatively crappy way to determine a team's actual ability to win games...etc...at least I (now) remember to remove the walk-ons...


*If you just want to join in the fun, there are a number of conferences that currently want to play but (barely) lack the requisite 6 human coaches who would LOVE to talk to you. Sitemail or post here and I'll hook you up.
3/24/2014 7:17 AM

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