I'm the first out in the Projection Report for Knight, but I'm thinking that should be good enough to get me a spot in the PIT, correct?

Generally what spot to you need to be at the end to either make it as the final spots for NT or to get into the PIT?

Thanks

I find the projection report is almost always followed precisely.  Typically you will need to be in the low 50s or high 40s and win the requisite 50 percent of your games to qualify for an at-large NT berth.  Otherwise if your projection # is in the mid to high 80s you will likely head to the PIT (depending on how many CT winners are 90ish or above).

It is 100% accurate in terms of which teams will make the tournament.  There are small fluctuations in the seeding, as the engine does its best to avoid early round matchups between conference mates, but its still very close.

When projecting if you're going to be in the NT or not, don't forget to factor in stolen bids from conference tournament champions who otherwise wouldn't have made the tournament.  You can find out how many stolen bids there are relatively quickly by starting at the bottom of the projection report and scrolling up, looking at all the teams "neutral site" record.  Every team that has a record of 3-0 or 4-0 that is below 64 on the report can be considered a stolen bid.

Posted by clouseb on 8/10/2014 7:14:00 PM (view original):
It is 100% accurate in terms of which teams will make the tournament.  There are small fluctuations in the seeding, as the engine does its best to avoid early round matchups between conference mates, but its still very close.

When projecting if you're going to be in the NT or not, don't forget to factor in stolen bids from conference tournament champions who otherwise wouldn't have made the tournament.  You can find out how many stolen bids there are relatively quickly by starting at the bottom of the projection report and scrolling up, looking at all the teams "neutral site" record.  Every team that has a record of 3-0 or 4-0 that is below 64 on the report can be considered a stolen bid.

Couldn't those "neutral site" records include pre-season tournaments and such.  Oh wait I forgot, we still don't have those yet, do we.....