As HBD goes, you know you control the guy for 10 seasons(3 min, 2 arb, 5 LT) if you don't do the horseshit "hold back 20 games when I could really use wins" strategy. You also know position players start their physical decline in their early 30s. With that in mind, having a valuable 24 y/o in AAA is sort of dumb. Unless, of course, you only want to do 1 arb and/or hope he'll accept less than 5 years when LT contract time comes.