There are two types of recruits I'll battle for, STL and high WE with high ratings. These two types of recruits not only will make your team better, but it makes the game more fun to see what they'll turn into. When I say high WE I mean in the 70s. To find a high potential recruit with good core ratings and 70+ WE could arguably be as rare as the STL. But that's a debate for another thread.
So the question is: Between these two types of recruits who will end up the better player and by how much. For this study, I landed two Offensive Linemen. I redshirted both. One had 70WE and the other one was STL. They are both will start every game of their career.
Here they are:
Joseph Banks - Sky's the Limit recruit
vs
Donald Burgess - Above average potential with 70WE
Recruited at:
Joseph Banks |
|
30 |
4 |
63 |
58 |
45 |
51 |
54 |
28 |
14 |
40 |
28 |
31 |
|
46.34 |
Donald Burgess |
|
40 |
22 |
43 |
70 |
45 |
60 |
48 |
18 |
21 |
32 |
31 |
22 |
|
47.04
|
RS Fr:
Joseph Banks |
|
39 |
10 |
69 |
59 |
52 |
59 |
61 |
23 |
18 |
48 |
34 |
40 |
|
54.22 |
Donald Burgess |
|
46 |
25 |
49 |
71 |
51 |
65 |
54 |
13 |
24 |
39 |
36 |
30 |
|
52.98 |
RS So:
Joseph Banks |
111 |
48 |
16 |
75 |
79 |
60 |
67 |
69 |
19 |
23 |
56 |
42 |
50 |
|
62.51 |
Donald Burgess |
111 |
53 |
29 |
56 |
94 |
57 |
71 |
61 |
9 |
27 |
47 |
42 |
39 |
|
59.92 |
RS Jr:
Joseph Banks |
112 |
56 |
21 |
79 |
96 |
66 |
73 |
75 |
14 |
27 |
63 |
48 |
57 |
|
68.97 |
Donald Burgess |
112 |
59 |
32 |
62 |
100 |
63 |
76 |
67 |
4 |
30 |
53 |
46 |
46 |
|
65.66 |
RS Sr:
Joseph Banks |
113 |
64 |
27 |
84 |
100 |
73 |
79 |
80 |
10 |
31 |
70 |
53 |
65 |
|
75.18 |
Donald Burgess |
113 |
65 |
35 |
67 |
100 |
68 |
80 |
72 |
1 |
33 |
59 |
51 |
53 |
|
70.73 |
3 games shy of the maximum games possible in the 5 seasons they ended up as:
Joseph Banks |
113 |
69 |
30 |
87 |
100 |
77 |
83 |
84 |
6 |
34 |
74 |
57 |
70 |
|
79.39 |
Donald Burgess |
113 |
69 |
37 |
71 |
100 |
72 |
83 |
76 |
1 |
35 |
63 |
54 |
58 |
|
74.47 |
Conclusion:
The STL was recruited at an overall lower rating:
At the start of the redshirt FR season they were -0.70 points apart at 46.34 vs 47.04.
After the redshirt season the STL was rated higher:
At the start of the FR season they were 1.24 points apart at 54.22 vs 52.98.
At the start of the SO season they were 2.59 points apart at 62.51 vs 59.92.
At the start of the JR season they were 3.31 points apart at 68.97 vs 65.66.
At the start of the SR season they were 4.45 points apart at 75.18 vs 70.73.
At the end of the SR season they were 4.92 points apart at 79.39 vs 74.47.
The STL recruit clearly had accelerated growth through his career. The STL player was a lower rated recruit and not all that high for an OL recruit at 46.34. According to GUESS he was the 43rd ranked OL recruit. His initial WE was high for a STL recruit at 58 which helped his cause. He finished his career just shy of 80 at 79.39 which is as high as I've had an OL in DIII and the #1 DIII player in Wilkinson that season.
The above avg potential/high WE recruit (WE started at 70) was recruited at a higher rating at 47.04 which ranked 30th for OL. He finished his career at 74.47 which is usually good enough for best DIII player.
They both started every collegiate game and with the same stamina settings. It's clear the STL player gained at a faster pace.
With everything that I've seen as a DIII coach, including this study, STL players are always worth redshirting and starting every single game of their career. They will end up a stud and it makes GD more fun when you have them.
8/19/2015 12:39 AM (edited)