chances I make the NT Topic

I just ended my first season with this Tampa team. Great team one senior I finished 19-7 not a horrible conference a few good teams. With that being said what are the chances I make the NT winning 0 or 1 of my CT games? My rpi is 47 but I'm 62 in the projection report? Thoughts?
7/29/2015 11:48 PM
With your current projection and after quickly glancing at your conference I'm going to say you'll need to win the CT to get in the NT.  No chance whatsoever by winning 0 or 1 games you get in.
7/29/2015 11:54 PM
your 60th right now I'd lean with a PIT bid.  You will be bumped by teams below you that win a CT.
7/30/2015 12:01 AM
You'd do better next season with a tougher non-conf schedule. If you MUST play Sims, play them on the road. But, with a mostly Sim conference, you should play as many decent human teams as possible.     Whom you play and, more importantly, whom you defeat are more important that your RPI in the projection report. So, the rule of thumb is....schedule the toughest teams that you can defeat.

Right now, you only have 1 game scheduled for next season and the deadline is VERY near......I'm not sure, but I think it's at the end of the CT
7/30/2015 4:47 AM (edited)
think you're gonna have to earn it. 
7/30/2015 11:24 AM
Actually, Tampa has a decent chance of earning an at-large, as long as you beat Barry.
You have a few things in your favor.
(I happen to be in Crum, so I can check out the standings etc).

1.  There are only 2 conferences whose best team is below you in the Projection Report, that will grab an NT bid:
- Central Atlantic
- ECC

2.  Your first round opponent at this point is a solid Barry team, followed by a good Eckerd team.   Beat those 2 and you're probably in, as long as there aren't a lot of upsets.    Actually beating Barry alone might be enough to get you in.

3.  Also, you have no terrible losses, and 6 were on the road, plus you have a couple of Top-100 wins (1 on road).

And note that these are the three 1-bid conferences whose top team is excellent with great coaches, where you need the favorites to take care of business:
Each of these 3 teams are already locks and are in probable 1-bid conferences (unless they stumble in the CT):
- Central Intercollegiate... you need Fayetteville to win their CT.
- Lone Star... you need Abilene Christian to win their CT.
- West Virginia... you need West Liberty to win their CT.

Also, a Bemidji CT win in the Northern Sun would boot Winona State away from you.

Also, South Dakota State has the horses and a great coach, and could take the North Central CT title, so they could get a 3rd bid from that conference (along with locks Northern Colorado and Oakland) and bump you down one spot.

A couple of years ago (Season 74) with Merrimack, I went into my CT at like 58 in the Projection Report, but had to play 1-25 AIC (264 RPI) in the 1st round.   Even still I only dropped from 58 to 61 with my win.   I lost in the 2nd round to a good St Rose team, which stabilized my Projection at 62.    I think there was only 1 CT upset, moving me to 63 and making me the 2nd to last team to get a bid.     And now that I think about it, I'm pretty sure that the last team in was actually Tampa.
7/30/2015 3:28 PM (edited)
Well I did beat eckerd and Barry now playing #20 Florida Tech in the final game of the conference tourney. A guarantee would be nice. I'm a one point favorite right now
8/3/2015 11:10 AM
You're up to #55. Even if you lose to Florida Tech, I think you'll make the NT
8/3/2015 1:05 PM
chances I make the NT Topic

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