Do you all think I have a shot at my first NC with this team?
https://www.whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=14645
I think I put together a solid team, I got BH and P in my guards. I got PER in some of my guards. Got a couple stud defenders.  I've tried to piece together a good team based on what everyone has helped me with in the past. Pieces of the puzzle and put them together, so I hope to finish it off.
Only has me going to the FF, I 'm hoping for a title

IMO your guards aren't good enough to make a title run.  However, press teams always surprise me because you can really compensate for talent with depth.  

Posted by tkimble on 12/17/2015 11:27:00 AM (view original):
IMO your guards aren't good enough to make a title run.  However, press teams always surprise me because you can really compensate for talent with depth.  

OK, fair. What in your opinion is wrong with my guards?  SP, BH, P, PER, ATH, DEF?  Thanks

I don't think it's a title level team, but I took a quick took at the highly ranked/rpi teams you beat and was very unimpressed by them too. Maybe it's just a down year in that world and you have as good a shot as anyone?

Very nice team. Looks like a #4 seed 2nd round-F4 kind of team to me.

my first thought was that your gaurds lack the speed to make them really scary like i would expect an elite pressing team to be.  and while you have done a decent job of makings threes,  again,  im not seeing the scary type perimeter threats that can cause an opposing coach nightmares.   

but then i looked at your schedule.  i certainly cant argue with what you have accomplished so far... you ve beaten alot of really good teams and great coaches with no slip-ups.

but  you still have probably 6 or 7 more tough games including the CT.   I hate to be a hater,  but im guessing you lose 2 or 3 and maybe end up a 2 seed in the NT.

I'm not saying you cant win the NC with this team,  youve definitely proven you can beat anybody.
but i would see this team as an elite8 team that could get hot and win it all, but also could be upset in the early rounds.

i hope im wrong and you get your ring.  either way,  youve certainly gotten your career off to a very good start and i expect if it doesnt happen this year, it will happen soon

There is no question that team has a shot at winning the title.  You've played elite teams in that world and beat them... it's all about the results.  

You've beaten the RPI #1, 4, 6,7 (one was an exhibition - but he played his actual starting line-up and is 18-0)....

You'll close with 6/7 teams in the top 57 RPI which should give you a good idea going forward if the team is likely to survive the first few rounds.

Of course there are upsets every season so there are no sure things - but I'd feel pretty good for at least a final four if I was in your shoes based on results so far.

Typically there are 3-5 teams that are better than the rest each season in a world and I would imagine you are in that group.  But it's all about context - look at other schools that have high RPI and good coaches, few loses, etc and see how you stack up.  

one final thought - the biggest problem I see if the #1 jinx... I've seen so many team ranked #1 for long periods go on and lose in the NT.  Kids get a big head and play down to their competition I guess. But that's the way it is in this business with 18-21 yr olds... 

I believe that team "could" win a NC, yes.  But I don't believe it will.  There are some small problems that when combined, could end up being bigger problems the farther you go and the better the competition becomes.  You've passed every test so far, kudos for that, but the season is barely halfway over.  Don't get caught looking too far ahead, you've got to win 5 games in the NT FIRST before you need to be thinking about winning the sixth.  Good luck to you in your quest.  My prediction is an upset loss in the Elite Eight.....just a feeling.

Phelan D3 is easy enough for me to win a NC.

For those not in Phelan, that Geneseo team is probably top 3 talent in the nation.  Shennandoah who he knocked off is probably top 5-10 talent as well.

There are very few "true" title contenders, not those that could end up, but are expected.  Cal Tech and Greensboro are probably the best with their non freshmen lineups.  Then its the group of those who are a notch below but easily capable this season to go far like Geneseo, Shennandoah, Stevens Point, USCG, Dominican. Augustana.

We don't have those teams that look like D2 NC favorites in D3 like some of the 1x worlds do. (except Cal Tech)

Posted by oldave on 12/17/2015 1:05:00 PM (view original):
my first thought was that your gaurds lack the speed to make them really scary like i would expect an elite pressing team to be.  and while you have done a decent job of makings threes,  again,  im not seeing the scary type perimeter threats that can cause an opposing coach nightmares.   

but then i looked at your schedule.  i certainly cant argue with what you have accomplished so far... you ve beaten alot of really good teams and great coaches with no slip-ups.

but  you still have probably 6 or 7 more tough games including the CT.   I hate to be a hater,  but im guessing you lose 2 or 3 and maybe end up a 2 seed in the NT.

I'm not saying you cant win the NC with this team,  youve definitely proven you can beat anybody.
but i would see this team as an elite8 team that could get hot and win it all, but also could be upset in the early rounds.

i hope im wrong and you get your ring.  either way,  youve certainly gotten your career off to a very good start and i expect if it doesnt happen this year, it will happen soon

Thanks Dave.  I was I started my career off this good, but my other alias Terps21234 has been around for a while and still haven't won anything, but it looks like 3 of my teams I have been getting close. 2 SW16, 1 E8, and I think 1 FF, and I can't forget PI CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!!  It's about match ups and upsets.  If I can't get these fouls down then I'm in trouble

Posted by brianxavier on 12/17/2015 1:42:00 PM (view original):
one final thought - the biggest problem I see if the #1 jinx... I've seen so many team ranked #1 for long periods go on and lose in the NT.  Kids get a big head and play down to their competition I guess. But that's the way it is in this business with 18-21 yr olds... 

LOL

Posted by emy1013 on 12/17/2015 2:03:00 PM (view original):
I believe that team "could" win a NC, yes.  But I don't believe it will.  There are some small problems that when combined, could end up being bigger problems the farther you go and the better the competition becomes.  You've passed every test so far, kudos for that, but the season is barely halfway over.  Don't get caught looking too far ahead, you've got to win 5 games in the NT FIRST before you need to be thinking about winning the sixth.  Good luck to you in your quest.  My prediction is an upset loss in the Elite Eight.....just a feeling.

Thanks emy. I'm trying to not look ahead, but with over 3,000 wins with both ID's I'm getting close and antsy. I did win a PIT championship so I can scratch that off my bucket list. Lol

Posted by brianxavier on 12/17/2015 1:09:00 PM (view original):
There is no question that team has a shot at winning the title.  You've played elite teams in that world and beat them... it's all about the results.  

You've beaten the RPI #1, 4, 6,7 (one was an exhibition - but he played his actual starting line-up and is 18-0)....

You'll close with 6/7 teams in the top 57 RPI which should give you a good idea going forward if the team is likely to survive the first few rounds.

Of course there are upsets every season so there are no sure things - but I'd feel pretty good for at least a final four if I was in your shoes based on results so far.

Typically there are 3-5 teams that are better than the rest each season in a world and I would imagine you are in that group.  But it's all about context - look at other schools that have high RPI and good coaches, few loses, etc and see how you stack up.  

Thanks for the compliments. I'm shooting for FF and if the chips fall right I could surprise.  I just keep trying to learn and create the best team I can

Posted by terps17321 on 12/17/2015 3:05:00 PM (view original):

Posted by brianxavier on 12/17/2015 1:42:00 PM (view original):
one final thought - the biggest problem I see if the #1 jinx... I've seen so many team ranked #1 for long periods go on and lose in the NT.  Kids get a big head and play down to their competition I guess. But that's the way it is in this business with 18-21 yr olds... 

LOL

or don't know what to change, I had that happen last season in Phelan started 23-0 then lost 3 in 4 or something changed my strategy and used it to make my run.  Losing can sometimes help unless you are clearly the best team and coach, since you can see what to change/expect and how to plan based on losses.  Those 35-0 truly are insane when they happen

No doubt you have a chance to win the NT. I think this is one case where you can throw the ratings out the window and look at his results and what you've accomplished so far. I'm actually interested in knowing the science of how you're winning games.