Between 1969 and 2000, 26 pitchers had seasons in which they pitcher 190 or more innings AND had at least 6 starts - though we have an issue of consistency since we found that in an earlier period the real cutoff between starters and relievers was more realistically 10 starts minimum, but for the moment let's use the same minimum of 6 starts and then examine whether anybody sticks out like a sore thumb.
26 starting pitchers with WHIPs of lower than 1.00 over 32 seasons is well below the historical average of 1885-2015 of 1.5 per season, since we end up with around 5 pitchers posting such seasons every 6 years in the period 1969-2000. That does not look "normal". BUT, let's remember that the overall average is skewed by those 30 seasons that have over half of the lower-than-1.00 WHIP seasons - 1901-1920, plus 1963-68, plus 2010-2015. Instead we found that the overall average of the other 100 years of baseball history as represented in the WIS database was 0.71 pitchers per season, or 7 pitchers a decade with WHIPs below 1.00. From 1960 to 2000 we have 0.83 per season, a little higher than the overall 100 year average, and which comes to 1.6 every two years, or 8.3 pitchers a decade over that period, compared with 7 pitchers a decade over the whole 100 years excluding the 30 in which such starting pitcher seasons are heavily concentrated, in which instead we found 28 pitchers per decade with such seasons over the years 1901-1920, plus 1963-68, and 2010-2015.
If we just split the difference (a colloquialism that has no actual basis in mathematical rigor, I am aware) and said, "what the heck, in the weirdo pitcher years we got 28 pitchers per decade that have WHIP seasons below 1.00 and in the seemingly normal 1969 to 2000 era we got 8 per decade and 7 per decade for the 100 years that were not super-pitcher friendly, so if we split the difference between having 28 a decade and having 7-8 a decade we get 14-15 a decade or 1.5 per season or 3 every two years which is also the overall 130 year average, that is about how many we should see in a normal era"we might be getting somewhere. Then, if we noted "hey, wait a minute, this long-winded professor guy just told us to expect that we are going to get 22 in this decade and we already have had 13 in just 6 years! That doesn't look quite right. That is over 2 each year, not 3 in two years among the starting pitchers, not out of the ballpark but a little too high. Maybe we need a smidgen more offense so that we can tell which pitchers really are having great years and which ones are having very good ones.
But the relief pitcher numbers are off the charts - having 16 pitchers a year instead of 1.5 or 2 or even 3 - which would be double the norm for starting pitchers - among relievers posting WHIPs under 1.00 is ridiculous. It isn't steroids - there is no reason to assume that only relievers take them and not starters, or that relievers have better drug dealers than starters, especially since starters probably make more money - so we have to assume that it is how the relievers are used.
Okay, fair enough, but...it doesn't seem quite fair to batters after 130 years to find that instead of facing a Sandy Koufax and maybe two other guys that pitch that well every two seasons you now face 5, plus 16 each year that come in AFTER you get Sandy out of the box. Something about the rules or pitcher usage needs to be changed in the rules - maybe no more than a certain number of pitchers per team roster - maximum 10 so that each pitcher has to pitch more innings, and maybe some minimum innings or batters faced or some lowering of the mound again like in 1969, which didn't hurt the Mets or the astronauts any anyhow - or maybe a minimum number of days of rest after a pitcher is used so that they can't use the same closers to strangle the hitters at the end of each game or something. We don't need fireworks like in the late 90s, but the thing has gone too far in the other direction."
The normality of a baseball game should be, based on this overview, that unless one of the 3 best starters of any two seasons is on the mound or unless the starter is relieved by one of the best 3 or 4 relief pitchers in all of baseball, that at least one batter should reach base each inning on average. Since no team is likely to have more than 2 of these pitchers out of 7 and in any case their years are spread out over two seasons, and there are 30 teams, that means that in facing 27 of baseball's teams, you should expect to get a man on base per inning on average. And it means that since most teams use five starters that even facing the other 1-2 teams with the best pitchers each season, you should expect to get a man on base per inning on average even against those teams except on Thursdays and alternate Wednesdays. Instead, facing 16 pitchers a season coming in with Koufax-like quality after the starter, and at least 5 teams every two seasons with a Koufax to throw at you as a starter, takes more away from the game than it gives.
My tale is told. Now, a public service announcement by bagchucker...(see what I did there?):
1/9/2016 6:31 AM (edited)