Another non-conference season has passed and the USA South has shown itself once again to be the class of Division III. With a .5992 RPI, the overall performance of the conference from top to bottom is a bit below the set standard, but by ignoring two obvious bottom-feeders, you're left with two potential PIT teams and eight likely NT teams, including a few potential one-seeds. Surely there is no shortage of talent in the conference, so let's take a look at where the premium talent lies and which teams are the early favorites to win their respective divisions and are carrying expectations that extend to the national scale. I've also introduced a new team grading scale, which you can review below. 

Grading Scale:
9.5-10.0 (Championship or Bust)
9.0-9.4 (Final Four Potential)
8.0-8.9 (At-Large NT Bid)
7.0-7.9 (PIT-Caliber)
6.0-6.9 (Average Team Nationally)
0-5.9 (Non-competitive)

EAST

1. #7 Methodist Monarchs (9-1, Projection Report: 4)
Predicted Record: 12-4
Scheme: Motion/Press

The Monarchs are perhaps the USA South's biggest mystery. They're loaded with talent--arguably possessing more than any other team in the conference--but they should have demolished the majority of teams on their non-conference schedule and...well...they didn't. So what's the deal?

First off, let's talk about why they should be good. They have one of the nation's premier defensive bigs in senior Danny Winer, two great rebounding/defending bigs behind him, and another whose just solid now but developing. They have solid wings who each bring something different to the table and in the backcourt have a number of capable scorers, all of which can defend equally well. 

The reason they're playing below expectations is a matter of strategy, in my humble opinion. Perhaps coach zwatts is attempting to throw off his future opposition, but having guards Willis Hamblin (26.9 PTS) and Jerry Crouch (16.2 PTS) drive the lane with excessive frequency is making the offense incredibly inefficient. 

The senior guard Sam Spaulding (5.1 AST) is the team's most talented scorer, but takes just 3.2 shots per game (4.8 PTS). Junior shooting guard Joseph Plummer is an equally adept sharpshooter, but takes less than two shots per game, after scoring 10.1 PTS his sophomore season. 

Clearly, something is awry with Methodist, but this coach has been around the block before and I'm expecting him to make changes soon, as this could be a waste of an incredibly talented team. 

Team Grade: 9.4


2. #3 Averett Cougars (10-0, Projection Report: 3)
Predicted Record: 13-3
Scheme: Motion/Press

Somebody wake these guys up! The Cougars largely coasted through conference play, with only one real close call, and we're using a very loose definition of "close" in this case. Milwaukee Engineering was the only team to keep the score within 10 and that was most likely the result of Averett's leading scorer, senior guard Lee Tritt (21.8 PTS) getting into foul trouble early and playing just seven minutes on the night. 

Tritt has been part of a two-headed monster in the backcourt, matched with junior Rickey Watkins (16.2 PTS). These two are the team's only returning guards and Averett brought in just two freshman guards in recruiting. Fortunately, these two signings have paid off to the tune of a combined 5.3-to-3.4 AST-to-TO ratio and 3.1 STL. 

Besides the lack of experience off the bench in the backcourt, the Cougars are very balanced. They run 11-deep and have solid stamina even in their bigs. Though their top two scorers are guards, the next three are bigs and combine for over 30 points on average while shooting 55 percent from the field. 

The big worry for Averett has to be their strength of opponent so far. Usually they enter conference play with a single-digit SOS, but this season it sits at 32. Something has to be said for the way they've bowled over their opponents (29.1 average margin of victory) but they've played just one legitimate tournament team so it's a mystery as to how they'll respond against eight conference opponents who are better than any team they've seen so far. 

Team Grade: 9.2

3. #19 Christopher Newport Captains (8-2, PR: 15)
Predicted Record: 10-6
Scheme: Triangle/Press

The Captains are coming off a disappointing first round NT exit, but look to have used that loss as motivation during the offseason, coming back deeper and, for the most part, better conditioned. They took on a number of challenges during the non-conference, going 2-2 against Top 25 teams--this experience will be invaluable in conference play. 

They lean heavily on their four seniors for scoring, generating 70 percent of their points on an average night. Guard Paul Orr is the biggest star of the four and an early candidate to be the conference's first-team point guard. But it would be a misnomer to conjecture that Christopher Newport generates most of their scoring out of isolation opportunities; the team relies on good passing and care-taking of the basketball, ranking fifth in the USA South in assists and fourth in turnovers, though you could really bump them up a spot or two in each category because two of the teams ranked ahead have played jokes for a schedule thus far. 

While the Captains lack any glaring weaknesses, they definitely aren't a great defensive team. They've continued to struggle guarding the 3-point shot and despite possessing a strong group of rim-protectors, their guards and wings don't do a great job of keeping their opposition out of the lane. Another reason for worry is that their leader, Orr, gets into foul trouble regularly (3.5 PF). On any given night, they are liable to lose their identity due to foul trouble for their leading scorer. 

Team Grade: 8.5

4. #20 Greensboro Pride (8-2, PR: 26)
Predicted Record: 9-7
Scheme: Motion/Man

Greensboro lost the identity of their offense with the graduation of do-it-all guard Clifton Bowerman, but they've gone to a more inside-out scoring approach and it's working well. Senior center Calvin Ratliff is leading the way with 19.2 PTS on 58 percent shooting while many of their wings and guards possess the ability to produce points in the paint as well. 

The Pride didn't face any world-beaters in the non-conference, but they did play a number of solid squads, including several likely tournament teams. Their biggest advantage over opponents continues to be dominance on the boards, where they out-box opponents to the tune of 6.9 rebounds on average. 

Although they do like to bang around in the paint, they have a few capable 3-point shooters, including junior guard Timothy Bergmark, who is shooting 41.2 percent on his roughly seven attempts per game. 

The main concern with Greensboro is their ability to match up with teams that can simply out-athletic them. Though this team is coached and conditioned well, sometimes pure athleticism can outmuster a more skilled team and I think that will be a problem for the Pride against better competition. 

Team Grade: 8.2

5. Chowan Hawks (7-3, PR: 113)
Predicted Record: 5-11
Scheme: Motion/Man

Chowan hired first year coach CoachWard95 in the offseason and, so far, they have to be happy with the results. They are already just one game off their total win mark from last season and have the potential to set their best mark in 10 seasons. 

Junior guard Tommy Puckett has more than doubled his scoring average from a season ago, up to 20.8 from just 9.7. He's also shooting 39.5 percent from beyond the arc in spite of the rampant pace with which he's heaving these shots up (8.1 3-point attempts on average). 

The Hawks are also benefiting from excellent free throw shooting--their 75.0 percentage ranks first in the league--and solid defense on the perimeter, giving up just 30.3 percent 3-point shooting to opponents. 

This team is probably a season off from being competitive within the conference, but they certainly have PIT potential. With a good group of rebounding and rim-protecting bigs, as well as some solid ball-handlers in the backcourt, Chowan has a lot of pieces that most DIII teams don't--it's their lack of athleticism and defensive fundamentals that are holding them back. 

Team Grade: 6.8

6. Ferrum Panthers (5-5, 200)
Predicted Record: 1-15
Scheme: Fastbreak/Zone

Team Grade: 6.0


WEST 

1. #17 Palm Beach Atlantic Sailfish (7-3, PR: 20)
Predicted Record: 11-5
Scheme: Fastbreak/Press

A season ago, the Sailfish failed to reach at least the Sweet 16 for the first time in nine seasons and also ranked outside the nation's top six teams for the first time in the same span. The program looked to respond to the disappointing first round loss with a strong showing against a difficult non-conference schedule and came up with a 2-2 record against ranked teams, though each game was played at home in West Palm Beach.

Coach Rails returns a balanced squad, but one that may not have enough offensive firepower to keep up with the top few teams in the league. Though they compensate somewhat with exceptional athleticism at all positions and strong defensive fundamentals, it's tough for a team that lacks 3-point shooting to score effectively if they're also devoid of any post-scoring threat.

This is a rapidly developing team, however, and they could radically change their offensive identity by season's end--sophomore guard Carl Henry (5.7 PPG) appears to be a strong candidate to see an increased scoring role.

In the mean time, Palm Beach Atlantic will stick to its tried-and-true method of simply outwilling their opponents through high pressure defense and offensive pace, generating easy buckets in transition or, at the least, getting to the line and forcing opponents into foul trouble.

Team Grade: 8.4

T2. #9 La Grange Panthers (10-0, PR: 14)
Predicted Record: 11-5
Scheme: Flex/Zone

La Grange is the last team in the West division to remain undefeated, but they faced unimpressive competition in the non-conference slate. 

Perhaps the conference's breakout player of the year lies on the Panthers' roster, as sophomore Jason Leath has increased his scoring output from 2.6 PTS to 19 in just a season's time. He's also come a long way as a defender over the past two season's and can now be included in the starting lineup without weighing the defense down. 

Senior forward Scott Moore leads the team with 21 PTS on over 50 percent shooting, but is equally important to the Panthers at the defensive end, where he averages 1.5 blocks per game and adds a steal. 

La Grange has been particularly effective at avoiding taking fouls, which bodes well for them in a conference and state of the basketball world where teams rely on engendering foul trouble to throw opponents out of their game. Their opposing biggest weakness is their lack of rim protectors, shortly followed by their weak ball movement on offense. 

This can be particularly problematic for a zone defense and a team that plays in a press-heavy conference, but the Panthers plan to compensate with continued (and surprising) efficiency from the field and free throw stripe. 

Team Grade: 8.3

T2. Oglethorpe Petrels (6-4, PR: 40)
Predicted Record: 10-6
Scheme: Fastbreak/Press

Oglethorpe finished out last season with its fifth Sweet 16 appearance in seven seasons under coach grantduck and while for many coaches this would be revered as a high accomplishment, there's no doubt that this staff feels as if they've left a bit on the table. 

The Petrels lost five seniors to graduation, but return with a surprisingly deep lineup. Freshmen guard Darron Brady, wing John Manzo, and forward Joseph Philpot are as college-ready as true freshmen come, with strong schematic knowledge for this stage in their careers. 

But that's not to say that Oglethorpe doesn't have a core group of impact players. Senior guards Scott Thompson and Josh Fuqua form arguably the strongest starting backcourt in the conference while forward Roscoe Delong is a huge contributor on the boards and defensive side of the ball, though he's been slow to develop his offensive game. 

Two losses by four or fewer points has Oglethorpe underrated in the current projection report, but their standing should improve as they pick up resume-building wins within the conference. This team, albeit lacking in post scoring and a bit short in overall rebounding ability, has the pieces necessary to make a run in the NT. 

Team Grade: 8.3

4. #15 Piedmont Lions (8-2, PR: 12)
Predicted Record: 8-8
Scheme: Fastbreak/Press

Piedmont played it safe with their non-conference schedule and begin USA South play with what is likely an inflated resume, but from a coach's perspective, that's a non-issue.

The Lions brought in five JUCOs this season and so, without any freshman at all, they field a deep team. Such is necessary when running the fastbreak/press combination, but it's possible that they have sacrificed too much long-term success with the narrow view of the next two seasons in mind.

As per usual, coach bistiza's team relies less on offensive efficiency and more on attacking opponents' rosters through attrition. The Lions are aggressive in attacking the rim and although this leads to more offensive fouls, their players have the athleticism to draw fouls in more occasions than they commit them by a margin of 11 personal fouls per game.

Once again, it's unlikely that this team will have the consistency to make a deep tournament run, but they will likely put up some stunningly impressive efforts over the course of the season and, at the rate they're progressing, could head into next season looking like a potential favorite in the West division.

Team Grade: 8.0

5. Shenandoah Hornets (8-2, PR: 81)
Predicted Record: 5-11
Scheme: Motion/Press

Team Grade: 7.2

6. N. Carolina Wesleyan Battling Bishops (7-3, PR: 141) 
Predicted Record: 1-15
Scheme: Fastbreak/Zone

Team Grade: 5.6