Why do some recruits who are signed have odds % when others don't? Plus no kidding they are 100% after they have signed,why can't we see the odd% prior to then

Posted by willowcards2 on 2/4/2017 12:24:00 AM (view original):
Why do some recruits who are signed have odds % when others don't? Plus no kidding they are 100% after they have signed,why can't we see the odd% prior to then

They don't want to give you a look behind the curtain when actions can still be taken to affect the percentages. That's why we get the vague Very High/High/Moderate/Etc. instead.

As for why some have odds when others don't, could it be because the ones with odds were cases where multiple teams were Very High/High on the player and the ones that don't have odds only had one team above Low? I"m not sure exactly what you're referring to there, but I seem to recall when the percentages were added that something was said that they'd only appear when multiple teams were High/Very High to allow for better post-battle assessment.

my guess would be you can only see the %'s if you were Very High or High on the guy. At least that is what seems to be happening for me. Makes sense too because if you are at Moderate than you had 0% to sign the guy anyway.

Side note but related I thought people had said that the lowest a Very High v. High battle can be is 70% v. 30% odds. I feel like I've seen that posted around here. However I just had a battle end where the odds were 75% vs. 25%. I wonder if that's as low as it goes? Anyone seen a bigger margin like 80/20?

As for showing 100% after they signed that would be for any player that only had 1 team listed Very High or High. If there is only 1 team at those levels than no other team could possibly sign the player, so of course the odds were 100% he was going to sign. If they showed the odds prior to the signing it would still have shown 100% for these types of players.

Well just lost a battle as A+ UCLA (VH) vs 2 B+ schools (both at H). Final signing odds where 56% for me, 23% for Fresno State and he signed with Oregon with just a 20% chance (like WTF).

I had done pretty much everything I could to sign him too (800 AP, 20 HVs, 1 CV, start + 20 minutes). Probably had a slight edge in preferences as well.

Posted by buddhagamer on 2/4/2017 5:18:00 PM (view original):
Well just lost a battle as A+ UCLA (VH) vs 2 B+ schools (both at H). Final signing odds where 56% for me, 23% for Fresno State and he signed with Oregon with just a 20% chance (like WTF).

I had done pretty much everything I could to sign him too (800 AP, 20 HVs, 1 CV, start + 20 minutes). Probably had a slight edge in preferences as well.

Yeah I imagined that the VH v H v H kind of looked like this. You basically can only get a 50% chance of getting him since 2 other schools are close. Bummer.

Also, FWIW - I've come across 27 VH v H v H battles and the H has won 11 times. Need a bigger sample size but that's 40% so it's pretty close to what you just shared.

Posted by Benis on 2/4/2017 6:09:00 PM (view original):
Also, FWIW - I've come across 27 VH v H v H battles and the H has won 11 times. Need a bigger sample size but that's 40% so it's pretty close to what you just shared.

Interesting side note for sure.

If vh v h is ~70/30 then vh v h v h should be 70/15/15... not 50/25/25 smh

Posted by zhawks on 2/4/2017 7:40:00 PM (view original):
If vh v h is ~70/30 then vh v h v h should be 70/15/15... not 50/25/25 smh

Every battle is different, the odds of the high teams will reflect where they are relative to the effort credit leader, keeping in mind the odds are stretched to give the effort credit leader even more of an advantage. Statistically, the more teams that jump in a race and can reach the threshold for signing range, the slimmer your odds will be, even if you are the only VH.

Posted by pkoopman on 2/4/2017 8:51:00 PM (view original):

Posted by zhawks on 2/4/2017 7:40:00 PM (view original):
If vh v h is ~70/30 then vh v h v h should be 70/15/15... not 50/25/25 smh

Every battle is different, the odds of the high teams will reflect where they are relative to the effort credit leader, keeping in mind the odds are stretched to give the effort credit leader even more of an advantage. Statistically, the more teams that jump in a race and can reach the threshold for signing range, the slimmer your odds will be, even if you are the only VH.

Jut like poker AA vs JJ is ~80%
but throw in 55 and 66 and those odds really start dropping...