Two teams going hard after a D1 player. Both favre3xmvp (Adams St) and I (NCU) agreed I'd post the inputs and final odds and get feedback.

NCU: D2, very high A+ prestige
1370 attention pts
20 HV, 1 CV, 20 promised minutes, promised start
Preferences: VG on wants to play, VG on close to home, good on strong defense, good on strong conference

Adams St: D2, A+ prestige but slightly lower than NCU
1,850 attention pts
20 HV, 1 CV, (EDITED) 15 promised minutes, promised start
Preferences: VG on wants to play, good on close to home, good on strong defense, neutral on strong conference

Final odds: NCU 48%, Adams St 29% (a D1 school entered late and got to 22%)

So NCU put in about 500 fewer attn pts, but had slightly higher prestige, 5 more mins promised and two one-level advantages on preferences. We were both surprised that ends up at 48% / 29% - thought it would be closer. Thoughts?

did both make the promises at the same time? I have the impression - cant say I know - that a promise of mins for a guy who wants to play makes other effort more effective. If one promised sooner, could effect the results

How close were you to the recruit and how
Close was he?

Right now, you’ve listed promised minutes the same. Did NCU offer 25, or did Adams St offer 15? Or is it actually even?

Were promises made before visits for both teams, or did one or both offer promises as a last resort, after visits were done? Promises increase the value of visits for all players, not just guys who have the want to play preference.

Adams St promised 15, not 20. Sorry for the typo - now fixed. NCU promised 20.

I believe both teams offered promises early, because we both stayed at Moderate throughout period 1. I believe Adams might have started at 10 mins and then increased to 15 when they saw they were behind. So that might be an important factor. NCU offered 15 as soon as possible and then increased to 20 right at the end of period 1.

Distance: 112 for NCU, right around 400 for Adams St.

I believe my distance was around 375. I promised 10 minutes very early, before the visits, but the start and increase to 15 minutes came late in recruiting. Hyer's stamina led me to believe 20 per game would be difficult to achieve.

It seems to me that preferences were at play here more significantly than thought at first glance. Thanks for also bringing up the question of timing for promises.

So you were actually only getting a Good multiplier on all those visits. That's a big difference.

I didn't realize that I'd promised 15 when you were promising 10, and that I probably hit 20 and the start before you got to 15. As Benis and others said, that was probably the key factor.

I'll also say, based on this battle and another one last season, that attention points don't seem to matter as much as I'd thought. Does anybody know if there are diminishing returns on AP's?

"Distance: 112 for NCU, right around 400 for Adams St."

This is also significant. You may have been getting 10% more for each action just based on that. The strong conference bonus was probably another 2-3% as well.

Couple that with PT multiplier effect and point or two from prestige and your effort might 20% or higher for each action.

Using 70 AP for a HV your efforst was probably something like 45-49 (him). If you give yourself a 20% * bonus it's gonna come out to something like 54-49 which if it's h2h is probably pretty close to 60-40.



*I skipped a step in calculating total effort but it's still going to come out something like that.

The relative value of APs remains a pretty big point of coach interpretation. I don’t see solid evidence of diminishing returns at play, though I would like to see that. It is possible to overwhelm an opponent with APs, or sneak into battles you otherwise wouldn’t have a chance in. But APs have differing value depending on the team’s preference match. In this case, while preferences looked pretty even at first glance, NCU had a clear advantage. Promising the start earlier, staying ahead in minutes, and being fairly significantly closer for a player who wants to stay close are pretty big modifiers; plus a small advantage in another category. And it’s not like NCU was ignoring him, based on the numbers given, you had to be in the 45-55 minutes per cycles range, depending on when he signed. Adams St. had a quantified AP advantage, but they had to in order to stay in the hunt. NCU drew clear separation in the visits. Effort was equal - maxed in both cases. But the preference and promise modifiers drew NCU well ahead.

Thats what it looks like to me, in hindsight.

Effect of promises multiplier was the difference here. Gotta commit to promises earlier.

Wow I would promise minutes and a start as soon as you can on any recruit.

Unless you would not take them if you had to promise minutes.