So it says on the arbitration that if you do nothing with the players it will offer 70% of the players demands. When I offer 70% or even 75-80% it seems like the players full demands are always given. But when I don’t do anything, it seems like the 70% offered by the sim is always awarded. I haven’t paid enough attention to see if it happens every time but has anyone else noticed this? It seems like you couple potentially pay a lot less every year if you let the computer do its thing.

I also noticed the most recent instance that he’s willing to sign an extension even after going through arbitration 3 times which I’ve personally never seen and his patience rating isn’t extremely high at a 54

Just my personal observation, it seems very random to me. I win the ones I think I won't, lose the ones I hope I should. And I once arbed a player five times, it had something to do with his playing time/years of service (which I didn't do on purpose) and his patience was 98.

So the takeaway is offer the minimum amount, rather than what seems fair/likely to be awarded given average salary, etc., for comparable players?

My post was about the SIM automatically offering the 70%. I understand doing it manually is very random.

I may try it out next time just for the hell of it

Posted by pjfoster13 on 12/27/2017 3:03:00 PM (view original):
It's 100% random. I forget if it was in 2015 or 2016, but one time the servers pooped out and the admins needed to revert an entire day and re-sim. (At least) One of the leagues had the arb cycle on that day, and the same person made the same offer to the same player before and after, and got different results each time

If you really believed that it was 100% random, you'd ALWAYS offer $327,000. Why waste money?

?There's no evidence that there is no logic at all to this. There's SOME randomness to it, sure; each arb event is a dice roll just like each plate appearance. But it seems likely that your probability of winning that dice roll is higher at certain offers, lower at others, just like your probability of a successful plate appearance is higher (but never 100%) if you have higher ratings in play.

A very crude example of this probabilistic logic would be:
---If offer = 70% or more of demand, then 50% chance of winning
---If offer = < 70% of demand, then 0% chance of winning.

The real logic is probably something more complicated than that, if I had to guess. It's also possible that the real logic takes into account other variables than offer and demand, such as OVR.

I admit that the logic is pretty inscrutable; but I'm confident that there's some probabilistic logic involved in arbitration.

Once I had a guy asking 327K in arb (which is minimum anyway right?) so I offered 330K for the hell of it, and the player won the case, thereby losing out on 3K...

Posted by bruceleefan on 12/28/2017 8:11:00 PM (view original):
Once I had a guy asking 327K in arb (which is minimum anyway right?) so I offered 330K for the hell of it, and the player won the case, thereby losing out on 3K...

Maybe his salary preference stems from tax bracket concerns.