How often do guys sign with school that have a much lower % chance of getting them?

I just came back to game after long exodus & Im learning new recruiting system.
My top target did not sign with me. Although I was ahead of the other team the entire time and at the end after he signed it still says 64% chance of signing with me & 36% chance with the team that signed him.

Is this a fluke or does this happen often?
Is there something I should have done differently?

broadly, it tends to follow the percentages as odds - some folks will be able to fine tune that statememnt

if you are at 33% - you have around a 1/3 chance of getting him

The game of odds is exactly as indicated, where even with over 50%, you still may not get the player you want, as I myself just saw a highly sought player signing with the other team with 42% compared to my 58%. Simply, there are times when you have bad luck, and the player doesn't choose you even when the odds favor you.

A player with a 33% chance of signing with a team will sign with that team.... 33% of the time.


It should balance out but sometimes it could take a ton of battles for it to happen. You can get lucky or unlucky.

In Tark I'm 2-15 in dice rolls. Extremely unlucky.

But then again in Allen I won a 5 star player with a 17% chance. Which I think is ridiculous btw.

"Is there something I should have done differently?"

Cross your fingers AND toes.

the percentages remain after the conclusion of the battle - for your reference and for others who battled

Of course, you could say that once the battle is over and he has signed the answer is 100% because it has happened. Which takes us back to Schroedinger's cat

Posted by Benis on 3/27/2018 10:36:00 AM (view original):
A player with a 33% chance of signing with a team will sign with that team.... 33% of the time.


It should balance out but sometimes it could take a ton of battles for it to happen. You can get lucky or unlucky.

In Tark I'm 2-15 in dice rolls. Extremely unlucky.

But then again in Allen I won a 5 star player with a 17% chance. Which I think is ridiculous btw.

That's even worse than me! I always feel a little sorry for myself because I'm 3-12. I could point out that I've been even or a favorite on 13 of those 15 battles, though...

In Allen I've lost all 8 recruits I've been favored with (excluding 100%) over the past three seasons.
Including recruits where my percentages were 74%, 72% and 68%.

Using the percentages, the odds of that happening are around 6000 to 1.

In my case, if there is a dice roll, I lose 100% of the time. No matter how good my odds are of winning.

Thanks everyone!

"Is there something I should have done differently?"

More recruiting effort --> better chance of signing the guy, If you put in enough effort to drive all other teams to Moderate or below, your chances become 100%.