everything you are saying is on point, for the scenario where you have say 3 primary bigs (or guards, or sg/sf, or sf/pf) who you want to get as many minutes as possible, in spite of virtually always having fresh players on the bench behind them on the depth chart. when you have like a pf1, c1, pf2/c2, and then a pf3, and a c3, and you really want those 4th and 5th bigs (the pf3 and c3) to play as little as possible, playing 1/2 starters on getting tired, and sometimes the backup as well, can really help keep pf3 and c3 where you want them - on the bench! so totally in sync with all that.
where its different is when you have a short rotation imposed on you, and then its about fatigue leveling, trying to spread around the fatigue so that you are playing with reasonably fresh players for as long as possible. i think the easiest way to understand it is to step through. the simplest case is with 3 bigs with literally nobody else listed, let's go with campbell as the pf1, rachael as the c1, and newmann as the backup, with everyone on fairly fresh. because campbell has better stamina, we are going to want to slightly prefer campbell / newmann over newmann rachael, so the depth chart for 4/5 would be as follows:
PF - campbell / blank / newmann / rachael
C - rachael / newmann / campbell
(the consequence being, campbell pf1 + newmann c2 position total is 3, while rachael c1 and newmann pf3 total is 4)
the typical first sub happens when both starters are fairly fresh, because typically there isn't a sub opportunity between the time the lower stamina big first hits fairly fresh, and when the second does. occasionally there is, and that's great when it happens, but it doesn't change the conclusions. anyway assume campbell and rachael are now both fairly fresh. because there's no option for them both to sub out, newmann subs in for rachael and now its campbell FF (fairly fresh) and newmann F (fresh), with rachael FF on the bench.
shortly later, hopefully, rachael is going to tick back up to fairly fresh, and will be ready to sub back in. there are really two scenarios from here, but they are similar - either newmann is still fresh, and campbell is fairly fresh (or perhaps getting tired), and campbell now comes out, making a newman F / rachael F lineup with FF campbell on the bench. this is good - we want the most tired guy on the bench if we can get it. alternatively, we may not get a quick sub opportunity, and newman might be fairly fresh now - which means campbell is probably down to getting tired (he was fairly fresh when newman came in at 100 fatigue, so its unlikely he's still fairly fresh). in that case, the same thing happens - campbell is 2 fatigue settings past his sub threshold, and newmann is 1 fatigue setting past his, so newmann plays, and we have newmann FF / rachael F, with campbell GT on the bench, as is ideal for fatigue leveling.
at this point we've fallen into a nice 3 man rotation. newmann went in as quickly as possible, and stays in for the next sub, allowing him to accumulate decent fatigue while the 2 starters rotate. next sub, newmann will be coming out and resting up on the bench, and we'll likely never have a big on the bench at 100 fatigue again - we'll always be recharging someone. stepping through 1 last sub, in the above paragraph scenario 1, newman F / rachael F with campbell FF on the bench - with newmann as a somewhat tired fresh, and rachael as a fresher fresh - is going to transition to something like campbell F / rachael F or FF, with newmann FF on the bench, which is what we want. in scenario two, newmann FF / rachael F, campbell GT on the bench (with rachael near 100 fatigue), the instant newmann hits GT or campbell comes back up to FF, we are ready for another sub, getting newmann back to the bench to recharge. rachael will likely come out next, and then on the following sub, campbell. this is what we want - our sub gets in quickly - and then each player takes a turn rotating. eventually campbell's higher stamina might have him stay in an extra cycle, and that's fine.
OK, now let's look at the exact same setup, but with newmann on getting tired. first sub opportunity, we transition to campbell FF / newmann F, with rachael FF on the bench. so far so good. shortly later, rachael is going to tick back up to fairly fresh again, and we have two scenarios (the same two as before). in scenario one, campbell is now a fairly tired FF, and newmann is a fairly tired F, and here we diverge from the above. now campbell will stay in because of his getting tired setting, and newmann will sub back out, and we'll have a campbell FF / rachael F lineup, with newmann F on the bench. this is bad - its very possible newmann will get up to 100 and we'll be recharging nobody, before he subs back in - and cambell will be getting pretty fatigued pretty early, and he'll play the rest of the game generally pretty fatigued. our fatigue-leveling is definitely sub-optimal here.
second scenario (same as second scenario above), a bit more time passes before the 2nd sub - now campbell is GT, newmann is FF, and rachael is F. what happens here? obviously rachael plays, but here also, newmann will come back out, as both campbell and newmann are 1 level over their sub threshold, and the tie breaker as always goes to the starter. so we will see campbell GT / rachael F, with newmann FF on the bench. newmann and campbell are probably both at the less-fatigued end of their ranges - which isn't bad yet. but by the next sub, campbell might be tired, with newman fresh, and that is really not ideal. we'd much rather newmann stay in, and become a tired FF, or a fresh GT, and let campell get back up to FF or even a tired fresh, before he comes back in. that would be a 3-man rotation. but once again, here in scenario 2, we diverge on the 2nd sub, and in a bad way. campbell stays in longer and fatigue is spread around unevenly.
anyway, i hope that makes sense... by leaving all 3 bigs on fairly fresh, you immediately get a rotation with 2 desirable properties - the sub comes in ASAP, so as little time is spent recharging nobody as possible - and the sub pattern falls into a 3-man alternating pattern, for fatigue leveling. it may (and probably will) change up a bit later, as different stamina levels eventually cause campbell to stay in for an extra cycle, but we want to put that off as long as possible. the point is once everyone is at least a little bit tired, we really want the least tired guys to play - and a fairly fresh fatigue rotation accomplishes that goal better than anything. with campbell on getting tired, by the 2nd sub opportunity we are already violating the desirable properties, with the backup going back to the bench before both starters have had a turn to sit. and then for the rest of the game, our fatigue leveling is going to be less efficient because campbell is on average going to be more fatigued than the other guys, due to his getting tired setting.
9/14/2021 12:02 PM (edited)