Career MLB .654 OPS. I play in Tacoma but he’s equally bad on the road. Typically league average hitting coaches. I don’t expect a Triple Crown candidate but figure he would be closer to .700 to .725 OPS. What am I missing?

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerStats.aspx?pid=10785437

Really surprising, great ratings, the ob% is so low!

For me, the most important lesson to learn about HBD was how to properly evaluate a player - and project performance - based on ratings. When I started, I figured 70 should be a "Good" rating for just about anything. It isn't, it's basically major league adequate.
I now think of 70 as a baseline, and anytime a rating is below 70 it needs another rating higher than 70 to balance it out or bring it back up. Sometimes it's only one category - I had a player with lesser ratings than this but his VsR was 95 and he turned out to be a useful fourth OF.

This player brings up the kind of player I always wonder about, what if all his ratings were right around 70? bripat is right, he might blow up from time to time but more likely over the long run he'll just be "meh."
Plus, only 50ish power serves to drag his other ratings down. And a 70 Glove is barely adequate at either 2B or CF.
To me, this player is close, about five ratings points in a handful of cats, from being a real contributor. But it's five points he's not going to get.

Right handed bat with 70 contact, 70 split and 75 eye will likely hit about .265 in a neutral park. He'll also have an obp of about .340. With 60 speed and 50 power, there isn't going to be a huge variance from year to year with his slugging, either.

To me, this guy is a AAA or bench mlb player until his arb1 year. However, if he had just one of the below things, he immediately jumps to a bottom of the lineup every day player.

1. 85+ glove. If he had the 85+ glove to match the 85 range, he can play CF and that kind of ops is acceptable (not ideal) at CF.

2. 95+ speed/80+ base running. If he had elite potential on the base paths, he'd hit more doubles and triples. He'd also steal more bags.

3. 80+ power. If he had the 80+, he'd likely be more of a 5th or 6th batter.

I love this guy as a bench player; I'd even arb him once. He's a starting 2B against LHP, fills in credibly in CF if you get an injury (or 10-12 games a season to rest your starter). Playing everyday, with half his games in TAC, I'd expect about .240/.320/.360; no clue why he's not walking as much as his 75 EYE would suggest but that's the only difference between what he's doing and what I'd expect. But against LHP that's gonna bump to .260/.340/.380, and in TAC that's a fine #7 hitter with 85 range at 2B.

@damag-- this player is very valuable with about 10 ratings points added in the right categories, and "all 10 in glove" would work just fine (as would 5 in power, 5 in glove, or any number of other combinations). And if he gets a "groin, strained or stiff" injury early in the season, and you run 20 medical, put him on the 60-day; you could easily gain 4 points each in range and glove, and now he's a legit starter.

EDIT-- tlowster's post hit while I was constructing this one; they're obviously very similar.

I'm finding that defensive ratings are negatively effecting offense if a player doesn't have the ML average at that position. This guy would be a decent 2B but is substandard in CF. This in no way means that changing his position will fix his offensive struggles or turn him into an allstar, yet I would expect to see some improvement.

Put him in LF, and I'd bet you see his numbers go up. Like grissom, I tend to see guys playing out of position having substandard numbers. I disagree with others about being a career MiL or bench player. He should be a servicable player. He should hit in the mid .260s with a .320 OBP in most years. Tacoma is probably killing his ability to hit 15ish HR per year. But he should be a solid hitter.

Would a positional change improve his offensive numbers? Fortunately my LF is the reigning ROY and MVP. I would love to use him as a 4th OF but I don’t have a CF alternative.

The OBP is what gets me. I'd expect that number to be around .325.

Posted by bripat42 on 6/3/2023 10:07:00 AM (view original):
He should be a career minor leaguer, maybe worthy of a spot on a ML bench during his pre-arb years. He’s a classic example of the kind of guy whose ratings fool some owners into thinking he should be good even though he is not. Right-handed bat. None of his offensive ratings suck, but none of them are particularly good, either. A .654 OPS is certainly in the ballpark of what I’d expect from him. Guys like him, on occasion, will post an outlier season with decent-ish numbers, but they always revert back to that sub-.700 territory in the long run.

Completely agreed, the lack of power hurts what is 70 contact and splits. As a CF and while cheap I'd look to him as a platoon at best.

A pull hittter limits him severely.

Interesting. I’ve never looked at pull rate as a ratings factor. Perhaps I should more closely consider moving forward. Regardless, I’ve been using him as a platoon against lefties with some early success. Numbers, albeit in very limited plate appearances, below.

https://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerStats.aspx?pid=10785437

Overall: .311/.354/.400. (45 ABs)
Vs Lefties: .361/.395/.444 (36 ABs)
Vs. Righties: .111/.200/.222. (9 ABs)

To me that 51 power just kills his otherwise pretty good numbers. That 71 glove means he’s at best a stopgap at 2B or CF and his bat won’t play at 1B/LF. I’d keep him while he was cheap and as someone said arb him for a million but can’t see giving him much more. I think someone said above that with 80 power he’s a LF who can hit 6th.