Draft Recap

Here's some interesting (or not) tidbits on the draft.

FRANCHISES
- SEA had the most 1st Rd picks (8), followed by TOR (6) and ARI (5). COL and FLA only had 1 each.
- That flipped in the 2nd Rd where SEA had ZERO teams taken but COL had 10!
- FLA's most common rounds were the 3rd and 4th with 7 teams taken in each. ARI also had 9 teams taken in the 4th (interestingly, the D-Backs only had 1 team taken the round before and no teams taken the round after).
- TB clearly had the worst crop of teams and 9 owners waited until the final round to take their Rays team.
- As expected with just 26 seasons total to pick from, there was no talent left over from TB or ARI and each had no free agents selected.
- SEA (11) and TOR (9) dominated the FA round, with 2 each from COL and FLA.
- The longest run on one franchise? That was 4 picks and it happened twice. There were 4 FLA seasons taken in a row in the middle of the 4th Round. And there were 4 straight TB seasons taken to end the franchise draft.

FREE AGENTS
- Two-thirds (16 of the 24) of the free agents were pitchers. Seven were clearly starters (180+ IP), seven others were clearly relievers (85 IP or fewer) and the other two were swingmen (05 Halladay had 142 IP and 17 Paxton had 136).
- Of the 8 hitters, every position was selected. There were 2 catchers (one of which, Tom Murphy, is just a platoon), one SS, two 3B, one 2B, one 1B, and one OF.
- If just the free agents were their own team, I'd have them as the best team in the league. Nicely balanced league and draft setup (per usual) from schwarze.
8/20/2024 5:53 PM (edited)
PRE-DRAFT
Interesting switch-up from the previous rounds, where each sub-draft was a single franchise (or time period, for Round 3). In this round, each of the 6 franchises are drafted together but with each owner needing one version of each, it's like 6 drafts in one. This creates scarcity among the different franchises.

That scarcity gets compounded with two franchises (TB and ARI) only having 26 seasons to pick from in a 24-owner draft. COL and FLA have just a few more (31), while SEA and TOR have a lot more (47). A quick look shows that Tampa in particular is short on quality seasons.

Two other factors at play: (1) shifting back to the modern era, all 25 roster spots will be important to utilize and (2) only 4 players are needed per team. The latter factor there certainly helps, but the first factor makes finding teams with depth important. Maybe a couple roster spots can be sacrificed to a backup catcher or mop-up pitcher but most need to be good players.

FRANCHISES
TOR and SEA certainly have the most depth. Interestingly, though, TOR has no elite seasons. In fact, I rate their #1 season as the WORST of all the franchises, including TB. But they have the best of the "24th-best" seasons and a lot of depth after that, where fit matters more so you'll have options. So TOR is a great team to wait on, though guessing most people figure that out and wait on them as well.

SEA is similar to TOR from about 15th-best season on, but their top 15--and especially top 5--are significantly better (mostly the Big Unit, A-Rod, Griffey years). I expect those will go fast.

COL, surprisingly, is arguably the best franchise through their top 24. Obviously, nearly all their value is from their hitting--outside of a couple Ubaldo Jimenez seasons they may not have a non-mopup SP. But the offense is awesome and pretty consistent with the Walker/Helton years giving way to Tulo/Holliday and finally to Arenado/Story. Given owners usually go for pitching early in these drafts, will the COL teams linger? How long can I resist before just taking some awesome hitting year for the Rockies?

FLA debuted the same year as COL but has a significantly worse track record. Their 1996 season is easily their top one and not surprisingly emanes10 took them with the first pick. They may not have another 1st Round pick, but they hold their value well in the mid-to-late rounds, certainly better than Tampa Bay and slightly better than ARI at the end.

ARI, however, are much better at the top. They're behind SEA and COL but comfortably ahead of the other 3 thanks to Unit and Schilling, of course, but also some Greinke/Gallen/Webb + Goldschmidt/Marte/Montero combinations. Ideally, I can get the D-Backs in the first 2 rounds and FLA in the later rounds, relatively-speaking.

TB is easily the worst of these 6 franchises. Of the projected "drafted" teams (top 24 for each franchise), I have the Rays with the 7 worst seasons and 10 of the 15 worst. Really two issues at play here. The first is the "Devil Rays" portion of this franchise was god awful. They produce almost nothing of worth from their inception through 2006. Second, while the "Rays" portion of the franchise has been much better, they limit pitchers innings and platoon so much that there's not as much WIS-value as you might expect. On an absolute value scale, I have their best seasons worth a late-1st or 2nd-round pick. But once you factor in avoiding the really bad seasons, I wonder if we'll see some TB seasons sneak into the top half of the 1st Round. I certainly will be tempted to take one of them with my 1st Rd picks (8th and 12th). This ties back into the importance of roster spots, but the only way to get value out of all 25 spots is to avoid one of the 10 worst Rays teams.

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I tried to write these up as the draft went, as much as possible. Instead of separating out my two teams, I'm leaving them here in chronological order, then summarizing them at the end, with my first team in red and my second team in blue.

***
Team A - PICK 1.08: 2018 Rays
Heading into this pick, most of the top options that had at least some pitching (read: non-Rockies teams) went. After 1996 FLA as the top pick, the next 6 were either SEA or ARI. I was looking at 3 main options: (1) 1994 SEA was the best overall option. You get a pretty good Randy Johnson (though not his best), a stud Griffey, and two high-quality relievers with 158 innings between them in Risley and Ayala. (2) 1997 or 2001 COL are my overall top-rated teams left. 1997 gets you the best hitter in this round, Larry Walker, with some solid additional hitting pieces like Galarraga, Castilla, and Jeff Reed. 2001 gets you a worse Walker (though still awesome) but a better 1B in Helton. Cirillo is similar to Castilla. The 4th option is likely a backup/bench option.

(3) 2018 Tampa Bay is the one I went with. They are my top team relative to their franchise value. It's not a great team but you get Blake Snell, the best SP in Rays history. Tommy Pham is only the short-side of a corner-OF platoon but he's a damn good one with 1.060 OPS#. Then 3 options for the last 2 spots between catcher Wilson Ramos, 3B/UT Joey Wendle and RP Jose Alvarado.

Before schwarze made his pick right ahead of me, I was down to 94 SEA and 18 TB thinking that the COL teams would last longer and have better options next round. Then schwarze got me all flustered by picking 99 ARI AND declaring there was another "obvious choice" that he was debating between. I knew he wasn't talking about COL or TB, so maybe it was 94 SEA? Anyway, I decided to stick with my initial plan and hopefully SEA's depth will help me later in the draft. (Follow-up: It turns out the obvious choice was actually 1997 SEA which has a better Randy Johnson and a similar Griffey. They just don't have good 3rd or 4th options which is why I had them ranked lower.)

***
Team B - PICK 1.12: 1994 Seattle Mariners
The 97 SEA, as I mentioned, plus another ARI (2004) and the first TOR team (1991) go in between my picks. 94 SEA is still on the board, who was my runner-up at pick #8. I still have a handful of COL and TB teams ahead of SEA in my relative rankings. But I don't want to double up on TB, plus their next-best team, 2020, is much less enticing as most of the value is in reliever Nick Anderson. For the same reasons as above, I decide to punt on COL, though I had an inkling of taking one of those teams and sticking them in Coors.

The next-best option from the other 4 franchises is 2019 ARI. Mostly this is a Greinke pick, but the real wild card is how to view Ketel Marte. He's a primary OF but has A/D- ratings at 2B. How bad would that D- be? The last two options would be replacement-level. Given the questions around Marte, the lack of depth, and the fact that I had this team behind 94 SEA to begin with, I pull the trigger on the Mariners.

This is certainly not Randy Johnson's best season but it provides bulk (249 innings) and a still-solid 2.65 ERC. 94 Griffey is one of his lesser fielding seasons (B/C+) but the one with the most pop (.650 SLG, 1.043 OPS). Risley and Ayala won't blow your socks off but both have solid innings totals with an ERC on either side of 2.00 giving me 4 good building blocks.

***
Team B - PICK 2.13: 2016 Rockies
I narrowed this down to either a COL or TB pick. Two TB seasons (2020 and 2010) ranked higher (when adjusted for franchise) while two COL seasons (2016 and 2010) were the best on an absolute basis. There were a couple other seasons from other franchises that were close, but TOR and ARI have more options later on.

I know I don't want to get stuck with a bad Tampa franchise and there's 20+ picks between this and my next pick, so I strongly considered both seasons. 2020 has the #1 relief season in this league with Nick Anderson's miniscule 0.52 ERC in 44 innings. The rest of the options are just okay between some relievers, a couple bats, and a Glasnow season with more innings. 2010 has better hitters--Longoria has a strong 3B season and Carl Crawford has a starter-level season as well. No Nick Anderson here but Benoit and Soriano have ERC at 1.30 or better, plus a David Price with over 200 innings!

The COL seasons are all hitting and ultimately the ability to fill out my infield was too tempting to pass up. There was a bit of a dropoff after these two seasons, so I decided to go with a Rockies team. 2016 COL has great seasons from LeMahieu and Arenado and a solid season from Story at SS (just 415 PA). The 4th player gives me another lefty OF to join Griffey with Charlie Blackmon. Hoping I can grab a reasonable TB in the 3rd round, although doubt the 2020 or 2010 versions make it back to me.

***
Team A - PICK 2.17: 2017 Diamondbacks
Unfortunately 2010 COL went right before me. I looked at 2018 COL as the next-best Rockies team and they are intriguing with good Arenado and Story seasons. However, I already have Wendle penciled in at 3B and while Arenado is better and Wendle can play other positions, it would hurt the value of one of them. I also looked at 1986 TOR who has the great Eichorn season, a good relief year from Henke and a decent Barfield OF season. But it's just not that much better than the other options available here and TOR's depth should be valuable in Round 5 or 6.

That left me two ARI teams--2017 and 2015. The 15 version had a better Goldschmidt but 2017 had more pitching. I went with 2017 to get Greinke's 202 innings. Archie Bradley is a pretty good relief option as well, or I could opt for Robbie Ray if I need some more innings. Goldschmidt and JD Martinez can both mash. Martinez only has 489 PA but a .671 SLG. He can either DH or if needed I can stick his C+/D+ ratings into a corner OF spot.

***
Team A - PICK 3.08: 1999 Rockies
Leading up to this pick, the 1986 Blue Jays kept catching my eye. I want to save TOR for later rounds with all their depth, but 86 was my #1 Jays team. Fortunately or unfortunately, pedro took them right before me.

With TB and ARI already taken, I'm down to 4 franchises. TOR has one other team that grades out well but that's mostly just due to Jose Bautista's cookie season at 3B, which I don't need. SEA's best season is 1993 with a good Griffey and Unit, but SEA has great depth too. That narrowed it down to COL and FLA. The Marlins had a 2009 season with a good Hanley Ramirez and Johnson, and 2016 with Jose Fernandez. But FLA has some options that will be enticing next round.

Ultimately, this ended up being an easy pick. After 1999 COL, there's a dropoff among the available Rockies seasons. There is not even a whiff of pitching with this group, but the best remaining hitter is here, in Larry Walker. That's a great start but the other 3 selections here are each interesting in their own right. Helton has D- range but that's fine since I have Goldschmidt already so Helton will DH. Terry Shumpert only has 304 PA but an OBP over .400 and SLG over .500 plus eligibility at all infield positions except 1B and OF, plus a bat that can play even at DH. Finally, Darryl Hamilton doesn't hit for much power, but he's got a solid OBP, decent speed, and a good enough glove (A+/B-) to man centerfield. (Post-draft note: I ended up rostering Ben Petrick (big bat, no arm catcher) as my 4th player once I upgraded over Hamilton in CF.)

***
Team B - PICK 3.12: 2020 Rays
I went to bed with 4 picks before mine. I still had the top two TB seasons available and I really want to get a good Rays year. 2010 does not fit as well for me since Longoria is a big part of the value but I already have Arenado at 3rd. 2020 fits better, with the elite relief pitching and some more fungible hitting options. 2021 TB was likely next up if the two better options went. 2015 ARI was the top non-Rays option for me as Goldschmidt and Pollock fit nicely around the Rockies infielders.

I convinced myself nobody would take the Rays options and I made the cardinal sin of loading 2020 TB into my draft center. Then both mllama54 and redcped take a Rays team, but leave 2020 untouched. I had to sweat out one more pick, but luckily I was able to get 2020. I actually had this team ranked in the top 10 overall, when adjusting for franchise value, which is much too high but in the mid-3rd round, I'm very happy to get them. Nick Anderson and Aaron Slegers will for sure make it. Aaron Loup is another good reliever (68 IP, 2.06 ERC) and Tyler Glasnow provides some more bulk (155 IP, 3.05 ERC). Two hitters in consideration: Brandon Lowe is versatile (2B, 1B, OF) has 600+ PA and a decent bat; Arozarena has the better bat but just 205 PA.

***
Team B - PICK 4.13: 2011 Diamondbacks
The end of Round 3 slowed way down and since I knew I'd be out for much of the weekend, I did my best to rank the remaining options. For this team, I already have SEA, COL, and TB. Ideally, I'd save TOR for the end. That left ARI and FLA and given the 5 fewer seasons, preferably ARI.

I still need some 1B/OF/DH punch, a catcher, a backup SS and of course some more innings. Some of the better Goldschmidt seasons rank atop my list including 2018 and 2015. I'm also looking for a catcher and Montero has some solid seasons, around the 2009-12 seasons. Some come with more pitching than others. As for the Marlins, they have 98 Piazza and 16 Realmuto as top 10 catchers, but mostly are pitching-heavy. In addition to 1998 and 2016, I looked at 2009 (Hanley Ramirez has enough bat to play DH and could take the SS at-bats when Story needed a rest) with Josh Johnson, 2013 with Jose Fernandez, and 2020 with Yimi Garcia (and Miguel Rojas partial at SS).

As the options started dwindling, I got a little worried, especially when 2018 and 2015 ARI came off the board. With a couple picks to go, I had it narrowed down to 2011 ARI, 2012 ARI, and 1998 FLA. The Piazza season went, but I had my choice of the D-Backs seasons. In a perfect world, 2012 had a little more value but much of that was tied up in 2B Aaron Hill who was duplicative, so I went with 2011 mostly to get the better starting pitcher in Ian Kennedy. In addition to Montero and Kennedy, Putz is a good reliever with sub-2.00 ERC. The 4th spot could be Chris Young in CF or there is a partial-season version of Aaron Hill that can backup LeMahieu and potentially DH. (Post-draft note: I ended up upgrading over Young so switched to Hill. Then I got worried about catcher at-bats (Montero has 553 PA) so I switched again to Henry Blanco.)

***
Team A - PICK 4.17: 2008 Marlins
I need a bunch of innings, same as my other team. On the offense side, the opposite though--I need to figure out my infield but I'm pretty well set in the 1B/OF/DH (though still need some reinforcements). Currently have Wendle who's a solid option at 3B with some versatility. Shumpert's 304 PA will play somewhere given his bat, just not sure where yet but he has eligibility at 2B/3B/OF (and SS, but D+/D- ain't gonna cut it there). I've filled the hard franchises and with 3 picks left, saving SEA and TOR would give me a ton of options later on, so focused on FLA.

2009 FLA is my top choice with a great Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson, plus Kiko Calero in the bullpen. 2013, 2015, 2020, and 2008 were all on the list as well, some with better pitching, some with more hitting. There was a run on Marlins--4 straight at one point in the 4th round--so I was down to 2008 and 2020 at my turn. I also had 2000 SEA in the mix to get A-Rod.

I went with 2008 for the bulk and the depth. Hanley Ramirez is the star here and has enough PA to not need a backup. Dan Uggla isn't the most exciting but he's solid across the board--B-/B+ fielding, over 600 PA, and some pop in the bat. If I need him full-time, he can do it, if I play Shumpert or Wendle more there and he's a part-timer, that's fine too. Similar sentiment for Nolasco. The 0.95 HR9# number is a bit high but he gives me 213 IP and an ERC under 3.00 and I need the innings. Arthur Rhodes rounds out the group with 36 innings and 2.18 ERC (and his 0.00 HR9# cancels out Nolasco...right?!).

***
Team A - PICK 5.08: 2007 Mariners
The best spot to upgrade my offense at this point is likely 3B. That would also solve my Tampa Bay issue where I have 5 players in the mix. Snell is a lock and at this point, Wilson Ramos is going to be hard to upgrade at catcher. It's only 174 PA but they are among the best in the league, so I don't want to drop Tommy Pham. That leaves the 4th spot battle between Wendle and Jose Alvarado. Between the Mariners and Blue Jays, the 3B upgrade options are mostly in TOR with Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson. There's an Edgar or two in SEA that might work but they don't come with any pitching help which is really what I need most.

For a while 2011 TOR is out there with the monster Bautista season, but that one finally goes. Would've been tempting despite the lack of teammates. The other Bautista season has even less help, so 2010 is out. 2016 TOR has a good Josh Donaldson plus a couple usable starting pitchers. The Mariners on the other hand mostly are just about the pitching and they have less depth there than the Jays. 2007 SEA had the best relief season with JJ Putz plus another solid reliever in George Sherrill. They also come with a really good Ichiro season--I hadn't been looking at CF since I had Darryl Hamilton penciled in there and there's not much else from my Rockies team, but Ichiro is certainly an upgrade there. At this point, I may have taken 2007 SEA just for the pitching, so getting Ichiro was just the cherry on top. I don't need all of Johjima's 500+ PA but he may make it as the 4th spot to be my backup catcher and defensive replacement with his A+ arm.

This certainly leaves me needing lots of pitching but the Jays have good options there and I still have my free agent pick. It looks like, worst case, I'll be able to add a starter with 200 IP and 3.00 ERC in the free agent round if needed.

***
Team B - PICK 5.12: 2020 Marlins
I'll admit I didn't fully research this pick. I was out and about and when this pick came up I saw 2020 was still there from my initial research list. I know I'm taking a Marlins team here. From my notes, this team has a serviceable starter, a good short-inning reliever, and a great partial SS season. That checks some key boxes so I go with them.

Miguel Rojas is a great fit. I need at least 200 or so PA to back up Trevor Story at SS and Rojas has A/A+ ratings there plus a .394 OBP with a fair amount of pop as well. He also has solid ratings at 3B and 1B so he may backup there some as well and both he and Story can easily have enough hitting to fill in at DH as needed. As for the pitching, Pablo Lopez has 155 innings and a 2.79 ERC, so that'll give me another starter/swingman. Yimi Garcia only has 41 IP but a 1.28 ERC (and 0.00 HR9) makes him an elite closer. For the 4th spot, I could go with another short-inning reliever in Richard Bleier (45 IP, 2.07 ERC) or if I need more innings I can go with Sandy Alcantara (113 IP, 2.97 ERC).

***
Team B - PICK 6.13: 2002 Blue Jays
Both my teams need Toronto and I'll be the last two Blue Jays picks in the draft. No sweat, however, since this is a DEEP franchise compared to the others in this league. As I mentioned earlier, there are two types of depth for franchises. One is just having a reasonable 24th-best option. The other is having a lot of options from 24 and beyond. Toronto has both which helps safeguard against the few teams being left over not fitting your team needs, which at this point in the draft is a big factor.

I definitely need a 1B, which I can get now or in the free agent draft. My backup option is to play Brandon Lowe there, but both his bat and his D- range are less than ideal. The other two spots that could use an upgrade would be CF where I currently have 2011 ARI Chris B. Young penciled in or at DH where Lowe is platooning with Arozarena (assuming I get a 1B so Lowe doesn't have to play there). If I can replace Chris Young, I can roster Aaron Hill's strong partial to help at 2B where LeMahieu's 635 PA isn't enough to bat leadoff the entire season. On the pitching staff, depending on what I do with Marlins pitchers, I need 300-400 innings. Can supplement some of that in free agent round. But essentially I need 300+ innings, a starting 1B, and ideally one more starter upgrade in CF or at DH.

I got down to two back-to-back seasons, 2001 and 2002. Both have a usable Delgado and some decent pitching options. I settled on 2002 because while it's a worse Delgado (both 01 and 02 versions hit similarly but 01 has a better glove and a about 75 more PA), it has better pitching and more of it. So Delgado slides in at 1B and Halladay gives me 240 innings with 2.68 ERC. I have him as a top-50 starting pitcher in this league so very happy to get him this late. And the final two spots aren't too shabby--relievers Cliff Politte and Mark Hendrickson combine for 95 innings with sub-2.00 ERC. That's enough that if I roll with Alcantara I can get to right around 1450 innings and that let's me hopefully upgrade a position player in the free agent round.

***
Team A - PICK 6.17: 1996 Blue Jays
I need a lot of pitching, with just shy of 900 innings on the roster, I need over 500 more. My offense could stand to be upgraded but it doesn't HAVE to be. The Blue Jays didn't have a team who could both substantially upgrade my offense and give me most of the pitching I needed. But 1996 had two quality starters in Pat Hentgen and Juan Guzman who combine for 454 innings. I had both of them just sneaking into the top 60 starters in this round (59 and 60 exactly!). The hitting options here are non-existent so the last two spots go to a pair of decent relievers in Timlin and Crabtree. Their ERC is in the mid-2s but they do give another 125 innings and that gets me to 1400. Now I don't have to add a starter in free agent round. I can solve my TB dilemma in one of two ways--roster Wendle at 3B and get a reliever as a FA to get me closer to 1500 innings. Or I can get a 3B as a FA, drop Wendle, and roster Jose Alvarado's 64 innings.

***
Team A - PICK 7.08: Jose Bautista (2010 TOR)
I had only two free agent 3B that would be enough of an upgrade over Joey Wendle--1992 Edgar Martinez and 2010 Bautista. If I didn't get one of them, I had a list of 5 or so relievers that I would have taken the best remaining. 2018 SEA Edwin Diaz was the #1 guy and he was still available so he would have been the choice had I gone that route. But Bautista and Edgar were bigger upgrades over Wendle than Diaz was over Alvarado. Luckily, Bautista slid to me and that gets me a big bump at 3B while letting me add Alvarado's sub-2.00 ERC to the bullpen.

***
Team B - PICK 7.12: Randy Winn (2005 SEA)
Right before the FA round, I had a list of a few CF that I would take over Chris B. Young. 2004 Ichiro was atop that list but ybjsports dashed those hopes by taking 2004 SEA with the last team pick (not that Ichiro would have made it 12 spots anyway). Luckily the next guy on my list was another SEA outfielder with great range from the very next season in Randy Winn. The others on the list--1992 Griffey, 1983 Lloyd Moseby, 2002 Randy Winn (TB). But 2005 Winn has A+ range, is a switch-hitter, hits well, has good speed, and comes with 683 PA. Chris Young grades out well in WIS but I don't love the low-OBP, defense-only guys. Winn provides a substantial upgrade over Young and it allows me to add Aaron Hill (.391 OBP, .487 SLG, A-/B- at 2B with 142 PA) instead who is a useful piece behind LeMahieu or as a pinch-hitter. (Late edit: I was going to roll with no backup for Miguel Montero who has 553 PA, but I got a little skittish. Since I can play Brandon Lowe at 2B to backup LeMahieu, I decided to swap out Aaron Hill for Montero's actual 2011 ARI backup in Henry Blanco. He only has 112 PA and a lower OBP, but high SLG, A+ arm and right-handed hitter fits nicely enough.)

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Team A Recap
I will end up using entire seasons for 24 of my 25 players, the lone exception being backup catcher Kenji Johjima where I only need about 200 or so of his 513 PA to backup Ramos. In all, I have 13 hitters for 6540 PA and 12 pitchers for 1464 IP.

Offense:
CF Ichiro
LF Walker / Pham
RF Martinez / Shumpert
DH Helton
3B Bautista
1B Goldschmidt
SS Ramirez
2B Uggla / Shumpert
C Ramos (Petrick, Johjima)

My offense should be very strong, led my Larry Walker. My weakest spot is probably Uggla at 2B, but Shumpert should get about 1/3 of the 2B at-bats. Both Shumpert and Pham are super-subs--in a must-win game, both would be in the lineup. As with most teams, my catchers will be weak hitters as well but my #7 hitter will have an OPS# of .923. My defense is a bit lackluster in the corner OF spots (lots of D+ ranges) and more solid than spectacular in the infield. I have 7 hitters with over 30 HR so but also a lot of high averages and doubles hitters so I stuck the team in Chase Field. It's even to plus everywhere and favors right-handed power a bit more which helps for 5 of my 7 HR hitters.

Pitching:
SP1 Snell
SP2 Guzman
SP3 Greinke
SP4 Hentgen

Closer: Putz

Setup:
Alvarado
Sherrill
Bradley
Rhodes
Timlin
Crabtree

Long: Nolasco

Snell is my ace, though just 181 innings and he (along with teammate Jose Alvarado) may have some walk issues (3.22 BB#). Guzman, Greinke, and Hentgen are all solid starters, though Greinke and Guzman's HR9 numbers are a bit high. Same goes double for Nolasco, who will be my innings-eater and worst pitcher. The bullpen is good but not as dominant as I usually build in these types of leagues. Putz is one of the top 10 relievers in the league. The rest of my guys range from 1.80 to 2.47 ERC, which is pretty average in this league. The tradeoff is that my staters are better than usual for me and my offense should be top third of the league.

Outlook: 85 wins
Probably the biggest worry is that my pitchers are a little too HR prone, but if that's the case, I've gotta think my offense should make up for some of that. If this team is good, it's probably of the top-5 offense + near-average pitching/defense formula. This league will be extremely tough and for some reason I willingly put this team in a division with Schwarze, so that may prove to be a bad idea. But by taking TB first and ARI second, I should have more depth than most teams, so we'll see if that is enough.


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Team B Recap
I will end up using entire seasons (or close to it) for all of my 25 players. Sandy Alcantara's 113 innings are my worst ones, but with just around 1450 IP, I'll probably need all of them. Offensively, maybe Brandon Lowe will have some leftover at-bats but given he's starting at DH against righties and then my primary backup at 1B, 2B, and OF, he'll probably use almost all of those 605 PA. In all, I have 12 hitters for 6273 PA and 13 pitchers for 1446 IP.

Offense:
2B LeMahieu
LF Griffey
3B Arenado
1B Delgado
RF Blackmon
DH Lowe / Arozarena
SS Story / Rojas
C Montero / Blanco
CF Winn

My offense is not as strong as my other team and certianly has less power. The defense, however, is better. Griffey's B/C+ and Delgado's C+/B are my worst fielders, but my defense at premium positions is A/A+ (CF), A/A+ or B+/A- (SS), A/B+ (2B), A/A (3B) and then two A+ arms at catcher. My hitting shouldn't be bad, either. I've got .900+ OPS from 6 starters plus Arozarena. My premium position guys--CF, SS, and Catcher--are lower but all in the .800s.

Pitching:
SP1 R. Johnson
SP2 Halladay
SP3 Kennedy

Closer: N. Anderson

Setup:
Garcia
Slegers
Risley
Hendrickson
Putz
Politte
Ayala

Long:
Lopez
Alcantara

Getting 3 solid-to-good starters with big inning totals (all 3 are 220 to 250 IP) is so unlike me but Johnson, Halladay and Kennedy give me almost half of my innings. The Marlins duo of Pablo Lopez (Long A) and Alcantara (Long B/mopup) will be the swingmen and are probably my two worst pitchers, but still both have ERC under 3.00. My bullpen is a strength and more typical of my drafts. Nick Anderson only has 44 (pro-rated) innings but given the weirdness of 2020 season, he has just a 0.52 ERC, so I have him graded as the best reliever in this round. My other team had just one reliever under 1.80 ERC but I have 5 relievers on this one (including Anderson). I have two others under 2.00 ERC giving me 7 relievers for 384 innings with sub 2 ERC. Most of this staff will do well with HR prevention as well. I don't have a certified stud ace, but given my staters are solid and bullpen should be great, plus my good defense, I'm hoping this is a well-above-average run-prevention unit.

Outlook: 82 wins
Let's call this just above average. While I purposely put my last team in a Schwarze division, I put this one in a pedrocerrano division, so we'll see which terrible idea was worse. My offense won't be great but there aren't any big holes so hopefully the depth keeps us around average. The pitching and defense should be the calling card, so this will be the opposite of my other team--if we succeed, it will be with average-ish offense and strong run prevention.
8/20/2024 3:40 PM
Hey Football (Go Browns!) great write up! I might add your initial analysis would have been most helpful before the draft started.
8/20/2024 4:26 PM

No Creative Name

Overall Plan:

With the last pick in the draft there was zero reason to even try and figure out who would make it back to me. None. So how to pick teams?

  1. I decided that there were more quality picks available for the teams who had played longer… so draft the teams in reverse order of debut unless something crazy stood out.
  2. Four usable players from every team drafted.
  3. Probably not going to get stud starters so aim to use every pitching roster spot
  4. Prioritize #WHIP over #ERA
  5. With a 3 player bench make sure I have a 500+ PA utility guy
  6. Prioritize average over power. Make speed a tiebreaker.
  7. Defense is important

Rounds 1 and 2

2022 Rays

Original plan was to take four Rays pitchers: Adam (63 IP, .80 #WHIP), McClanahan (166, .98), Raley (54, 1.02) and Rasmussen (146, 1.09).

In the end I made a move to upgrade my super utility player over a possibly better DH and dropped Raley to roster DH/1B Yandy Diaz (R, 554 PA, #AVG .307).

2007 DBacks

Three more pitchers. One is even a solid inning starter. Webb (236, 1.17), Pena (85, 1.08), Valverde (64, 1.1).

I had a few guys I was willing to use here (Hudson, Byrnes) If I could cover the catching position fully with other picks. If not Snyder with A+/A+/A will be my defensive replacement behind the dish.

Rounds 3 and 4


2003 Marlins

I very much wanted to be able to type “2015 Marlins.” Didn’t happen. So instead I grabbed this team. This gave me three bats I liked along with two more usable ones. The three who I made it: Castillo (S, 676, .315) at second, Pierre (L, 746, .306) in center and I-Rod (R, 578, .297) behind the plate. Lee and Lowell were options as well but didn’t make the cut in the end.

This pick also added my 8th pitcher in Spooneybarger (42, .9)

2011 Rockies

Ninth pitcher (yes, a rockies pitcher) Betancourt (62, .89) brings my IP total to 918. I will need to add about 500 from the last 4 spots.

The Rockies are for bats. So three more get rostered. Tulo (R, 606, .307) will handle short well (A+/A). Car Gon (L, 542, .300) and Helton (L, 491. .307) will need back-up because of their PA’s but it shouldn’t be hard to find a first baseman/of who can hit and has 500+ PA’s. In the end that guy was already on my roster with Diaz.

Rounds 5 and 6


2008 Jays

I am a Halladay (246, 1.04) fan. I’ll take him to be my day one starter. That should put me in place to take a batter with my last pick. In my original plan he would bring along a reliever in Carlson (60, 1.02). In the end I also rostered Downs (71, 1.13).

The original plan included a weaker hitting Scutaro who had A fielding at every infield position. In the end I upgraded my super utility. Wells (R, 466, .297) will take up some of the slack from Car-Gon’s lack of PA’s.

1991 M’s

This team gives me my last two pitchers. Swift (91, 1.1) and Jackson (89, 1.1) bring my IP total to 1421. Should be good. It will be interesting to see how the huge bullpen works.

This team brings a Martinez (642, .307) who can actually play 3B (B/C). I also finish out my outfield with Junior (633, .328).

There were some better top options as far as bats go but they would have forced me to look for a third baseman with my last pick. With so many people left to pick I didn’t want to be forced into picking one particular position.

Round 7


This was a tough choice. I looked at 1998 Piazza. Would have used him full time (C/DH) and platoon I-Rod. 2006 Ichero or 1992 Junior would have made my outfield great, moving Wells and Car-Gon to DH.

In the end I wanted a better super utility so I upgraded my 2008 Scutoro to the 2012 (683, .311) version. He doesn’t have defensive stats at first or outfield but I don’t need those positions covered anyhow.

Line up

03 CF Pierre (L)
91 3B Martinez (R)
11 1B Helton (L)
11 SS Tulo (R)
91 LF Junior (L)
11 RF Car-Gon (L) 08 /Wells (R)
22 DH Diaz (R)
03 C I-Rod (R)
03 2B Castillo (S)

Bench
07 Snyder defensive replacement at catcher
12 Scutero 2B/3B/SS and some DH when Helton or Diaz needs to sit

Pitching. Lots of them.

8/20/2024 11:36 PM (edited)
Great job by footballmm11 on his writeup. Mine won't be that comprehensive.

My prep was basically the same spreadsheet I used for the other rounds. I have a grid that shows each team along the left and each position along the top. The positions would include SP1, SP2, etc... S/R1, S/R2, etc... RP1, RP2, etc... (sorted by quality within each position). Also shown are the starting positions, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF1, OF2, OF3. Note that I'm not showing the player names. For pitchers, I list their ERC+ and for hitter I list their OPS+. Since these numbers are normalized to 100 being average, it's very easy to scan a team and see who's got a bunch of players over 100 and/or which positions are above average.

Pick 1.07 - 1999 Arizona Diamondbacks
I definitely targeted an Arizona season with my top pick (#7 overall) since I didn't want to end up with the bottom of the barrel options on ARZ or TB and the Bucs just don't have any seasons worthy of an early pick. Although I would have considered taking 2001 Seattle had they fell to me (one pick away). When my turn came, I was debating between the '99 D'backs and the '97 Mariners. Of course, the '97 Mariners have a $8.9 million stud Ken Griffey Jr (134 ops+).. They also have a very good Edgar Martinez (131 ops+) that footballmm11 failed to recognize this in his analysis on this 1997 team (maybe because he'd lock up the DH). The M's also have a usable season from Alex Rodriguez (110 ops+). And don't forget a solid Randy Johnson season (186 erc+) which is much better than his 1994 season (158+).

So why did I pass up this Mariners juggernaut and take the seemingly inferior '99 D'Backs? (1) I get 272 innings out of similarly talented Randy Johnson (184 erc+) compared to just 213 innings from the '97 version. (2) I get full-time seasons from three hitters, including tough to fill positions 2B and 3B... Jay Bell (121 ops+) and 3B Matt Williams (114 ops, A/A-) . It's also OF Luis Gonzalez' second best season (123 ops+). (3) I have flexibility since I could also get usable seasons from SS (Batista, 110 ops+ A-/A-) and/or OF Steve Finley (112 ops+, A/A). And finally, Arizona has way fewer seasons that Seattle, so I should still get a decent Seattle season. Not sure I can say the same thing about Arizona.

Pick 2.18 - 2009 Colorado Rockies
I wasn't even considering the Rockies here. I had my two choices narrowed down to the 2022 Miami Marlins (stud SP Alcantara, plus some good RPs) and the 2009 Seattle Mariners (solid Felix Hernandez plus three more decent pitchers). But then I realized that nobody behind me had their Rockies teams yet, and I was worried I would have a putrid offense if all the good Rockies hitting got taken, so at the last minute, I pivoted. I would have preferred the 2010 Rockies (with a much better Ubaldo Jimenez), but 2009 Ubaldo Jimenez (137 erc+) isn't terrible. But pitching isn't the reason for this pick. I get 1B Todd Helton (122 ops+, A/A+), SS Troy Tulowitzki (126 ops+, A/B+, in 629 pa) and another lefty bat, DH Brad Hawpe (122 ops+). Not surprisingly, pedrocerrano grabs 2022 Miami one pick after me, immediately making me regret not taking them. emanes10 takes 2009 Mariners at 3.01. But four Rockies teams did get taken, so maybe this pick is ok.

Pick 3.07 - 1993 Seattle Mariners
As I review the top pitchers still available, I see that there are a bunch of Blue Jays options. I surely can get one of them later. I've been eyeing the 2011 Rays for a while as they have three SPs that have ERC+ greater than 130 (Shields, Hellickson, Price). I'm surprised this team lasted this long. But I already have 2 SPs so I don't really need 3 SPs. One of the top SPs available is a 1993 Seattle version of Randy Johnson (157 erc+, 256 ip). I see that this team also has an $8.5M Ken Griffey Jr. (138 ops+) and a usable catcher in Dave Valle (100 ops+, A+ arm). As the fourth player, I decide to roster SP Chris Bosio (138 erc+) over a better quality low-inning RP with too many walks. Now, I am glad I passed on '97 Seattle, since this team isn't that much worse.

Pick 4.18 - 2021 Tampa Bay Rays
Looking at the teams that are picking behind me, I see that none of them have their TB team yet. So far, I have a C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, DH and four SPs. I have zero RPs rostered. I knew I'd get most of my bullpen from Tampa Bay. This season gets me Louis Head (35 ip, 243 erc+), Collin McHugh (64 ips, 221 erc+), Drew Rasmussen (59 ips, 219 erc+) and Tyler Glasnow (88 ip, 210 erc+). That's nearly 240 strong bullpen innings, with all four pitchers having IP/G greater than 1.00.

Pick 5.07 - 2006 Toronto Blue Jays
At this point, there were 7 people left that still needed a Toronto season. I hand picked the best seven seasons I wanted and was happy with all seven, so it makes sense to grab a Marlins season here, right? I strongly considered taking the 2014 Marlins (for G.Stanton & J.Fernandez) here. But wait a minute... I don't need all that much. Because 7 of my 8 batters have full-time seasons, and I have nearly 1200 innings, I really only need one more starting OF, and a few more innings. I can take my favorite Blue Jays team here, and use the final Marlins season to maybe fill in a RP spot or maybe a backup DH. So, which Blues Jays team to take. I almost took 1983 to get Stieb and Moseby (can't believe they went undrafted). But with 2006, I get three usable pitchers, including Roy Halladay (220 ips, 158 erc+), stud closer B.J. Ryan (73 ip, 327 erc+) and Brandon League (43 ip, 198 erc+). Vernon Wells (116 ops+) fills in the last OF spot.

Pick 6.18 - 1995 Florida Marlins
Like I mentioned before, I don't really need much. I have my lineup set and 1400 innings. I need a few plate appearances at C and DH since Valle and Hawpe aren't full-time players. One of the best catchers left is Charles Johnson (103 ops+, A+ arm). Gary Sheffield (143 ops+) only has 311 PAs but makes for a perfect platoon with Hawpe at DH. The other players I add are guys I don't really need, but Terry Pendleton (105 ops+) could start over Matt Williams in a pitchers park vs RHP. Jeff Conine (122 ops+) is good enough to start and I considered using him at DH and replacing Hawpe with a decent RP (Betancourt), but my lineup is already too right-handed, and replacing Hawpe leaves me with just 3 lefty bats.

Pick 7.07 - 2005 Felix Hernandez
I really really wanted to add 2005 Randy Winn here. Love the switch hitter, with A+++ range, but I already have too many good OFs... So it was going to be a pitcher. Had '83 Dave Stieb made it to me (pedrocerrano took him one spot before me), I might have upgraded my SPs. I ended up taking 2005 Felix Hernandez (85 ip, 204 erc+) over pure relievers like Edwin Diaz and Bryan Harvey due to the superior IP/G.

Outlook:
It's really hard to say how good my team is since I haven't really compared them to other rosters. Other than Griffey Jr., I don't really have any stud hitters, just mostly good hitters with lower OBP than I like, but pretty good slugging percentages. Except for catcher, all my guys are over .900 ops. My defense is mostly good (except 2B). My top three SPs are very good, and I like my bullpen, although my staff is a bit HR prone. Jimenez and Bosio will split SP4 and Mopup duties. Here is the team. I hope they can win 85-90 games and squeak into the playoffs, where I can run a 3-man rotation.

Hitting
C: '93 Dave Valle (.258, .354, .395) A/A+/A+
C: '95 Charles Johnson (.251, .351, .410) B/A+/A+
1B: '09 Todd Helton (.325, .416, .489) A/A+
2B: '99 Jay Bell (.289, .374, .557) C-/C-
3B: '99 Matt Williams (.303, .344, .536) A/A-
SS: '09 Troy Tulowitzki (.297, .377, .552) A/B+
LF: '93 Ken Griffey Jr. (.309, .408, .617) A-/B-
CF: '06 Vernon Wells (.303, .357, .542) B+/B
RF: '99 Luis Gonzalez (.336, .403, .549) B-/C-
DH: '09 Brad Hawpe (.285, .384, .519)
DH: '95 Gary Sheffield (.324, .467, .587)
PH: '95 Jeff Conine (.302, .379,.520)
Batting Totals: .303, .384, 535

Pitching
SP1: '99 Randy Johnson (272 ip, 1.02 whip, .209 oav, 0.99 hr/9)
SP2: '93 Randy Johnson (256 ip, 1.11 whip, .203 oav, 0.78 hr/9)
SP3: '06 Roy Halladay (220 ip, 1.10 whip, .251 oav, 0.78 hr/9)
SP4/Mop: '09 Ubaldo Jimenez (218 ip, 1.23 whip, .229 oav, 0.54 hr/9)
SP4/Mop: '93 Chris Bosio (165 ip, 1.20 whip, .229 oav, 0.77 hr/9)
RP: '05 Felxi Hernandez (85 ip, 1.00 whip, .203 oav, 0.53 hr/9)
RP: '21 Luis Head (35 ip, 0.86 whip, .175 oav, 0.51 hr/9)
RP: '21 Collin McHugh (64 ip, 0.94 whip, .207 oav, 0.42 hr/9)
RP: '21 Tyler Glasnow (88 ip, 0.93 whip, .176 oav, 1.02 hr/9)
RP: '21 Drew Rasmussen (59 ip, 0.97 whip, .205 oav, 0.46 hr/9)
RP: '06 Brandon League (43 ip, 1.01 whip, .214 oav, 0.63 hr/9)
CL: '06 B.J. Ryan (73 ip, 0.86 whip, .169 oav, 0.37 hr/9)
Total pitching: 1578 innings, 1.07 whip, .214 oav, 0.73 hr/9
8/21/2024 3:52 PM
You are correct, schwarze. I made a change part-way through the draft to better handle DHs and that moved 97 SEA up to the 2nd-best Mariners team, actually just slightly ahead of 94 SEA (94 has a worse Randy Johnson and no Edgar, but does have two good relievers).

I still would've taken 2018 Tampa Bay, however.
8/21/2024 4:13 PM

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