NAC Conference Topic

I agree with you, Cyben5150. I go 10-0 with that schedule, I'm going to have a top 5 RPI going into conference play.

But from a pure ratings point of view (which can be misleading), I'll be the favorite in all my non-conf games this year. And that theoretically means that I should go 10-0 this season. Of course, if it were the case that the favorite always wins, there would be no reason to sim the games.

Most of you guys probably don't need to be reminded of this, but three seasons ago I scheduled a pretty difficult schedule and ended up going 3-7 in non-conference play. Two seasons ago I scheduled even harder and ended up going 0-10. And last year with Cyben5150 coaching while I was in Israel, we went 5-5 -- but with the #1 SOS.

So for me to be entering a season where I'll probably be the favorite in each and every one will be very odd. That's pretty much while I made that post on the forum board. I don't see us going 10-0 as I indicated over there. I think there is a win or two in there that should be all but in the bag. But the other eight games are going to be ones where I can easily lose if thing don't go right and most of the eight are going to be ones that I need things to go my way in order to win.

I'm hoping for 8 wins myself. Not predicting 8, hoping for 8. 8 wins should allow me to make the NT even if I slip up a bit in conference play. (And we have enough good teams this year that I could see us going 8-8 even though my bunch is going to be pretty good as well.) I'll be satisfied with 7. If I get 6 like Cyben5150 is predicting, I think I'm going to feel like I a win on the table.
1/12/2008 8:38 AM
Quote: Originally Posted By kujayhawk on 1/12/2008I agree with you, Cyben5150. I go 10-0 with that schedule, I'm going to have a top 5 RPI going into conference play.

But from a pure ratings point of view (which can be misleading), I'll be the favorite in all my non-conf games this year. And that theoretically means that I should go 10-0 this season. Of course, if it were the case that the favorite always wins, there would be no reason to sim the games.

Most of you guys probably don't need to be reminded of this, but three seasons ago I scheduled a pretty difficult schedule and ended up going 3-7 in non-conference play. Two seasons ago I scheduled even harder and ended up going 0-10. And last year with Cyben5150 coaching while I was in Israel, we went 5-5 -- but with the #1 SOS.

So for me to be entering a season where I'll probably be the favorite in each and every one will be very odd. That's pretty much while I made that post on the forum board. I don't see us going 10-0 as I indicated over there. I think there is a win or two in there that should be all but in the bag. But the other eight games are going to be ones where I can easily lose if thing don't go right and most of the eight are going to be ones that I need things to go my way in order to win.

I'm hoping for 8 wins myself. Not predicting 8, hoping for 8. 8 wins should allow me to make the NT even if I slip up a bit in conference play. (And we have enough good teams this year that I could see us going 8-8 even though my bunch is going to be pretty good as well.) I'll be satisfied with 7. If I get 6 like Cyben5150 is predicting, I think I'm going to feel like I a win on the table
If you only win 6, we car going to label you a choker. Just kidding. I remember your non conf woes. Hey, I root for all conference foes in the non conf schedule...may we all go 10-0.
1/12/2008 11:43 AM
/agree
1/12/2008 1:16 PM
I have done a quick look at everyone's NC schedule. I will post my findings here and we'll see how they work out after 10 games. These are off of overall team ratings only. They do not take into account who the coaches are your playing or their past successes.
North
Castleton - 11th SOS (a guess)
is a 470 rated team with 6 openings.... probably about 440 rating after the dust settles. (if someone could hook-up with C.St. and UMPI and help them out it will help us all alot!)
They have no NC schedule, however,,, they should get one littered with sims, and they will have 4-6 new recruits... 5-5 would be optimistic probably, I would guess RPI below 200 would be great!
Becker, 8th place SOS
530 rated with 3 open schollys.
Jelly only has 6 scheduled so he's gonna get 4 more dropped on him. Of the 6 games scheduled they have a 500 average rating with 3 open schollys each. I would think 4-2 or 5-1 would be very feasable here, win 2 or 3 of the ones dropped on you and Jelly comes into conference at 7-3 or so.... he has sub 100 RPI potential if his team continues to come together and his #8 place SOS don't hurt him too bad.
Elms - 4th place SOS
495 rated overall returning 10
doesn't have a single team rated below 500 on his NC schedule. Only 2 below 510 and they return 10 each. Elmo once again appears to me to be looking at a season where he is quite possibly far better than his record shows. Probably 5-5 would be a good NC finish... 6-4 maybe? (every team he plays will be rated higher than his) I look for his RPI and SOS to be good, as he continues to improve his program.
Johnson St. 9th place SOS
510 rated overall, BUT he only returns 7 to make that up.
So he is a wild-card. Does he rebuild or go juco/quickfix ? He really doesn't look to have any top 25 teams on the NC schedule so he could fair well if he recruits some nice pieces to round out his team. I truely don't have a predicted finish as he could go 2-8 if he goes frosh and rebuilds... he could win em all (possibly) if he went juco/turbo!
Lasell #2 SOS
532 rated team returning 9 players.
Lasell only has about 2 ez wins on the NC schedule, however, he should be good enough to handle most all of it if it aint ranked in the top 25! Trouble is 2-4 of them probably will be. He should win 5-6 games by default... the other 4-5 it's far too early to guess as alot can happen in the next couple weeks. My blind-arse guess is that he goes about 7-3 and comes into conf. with a sub-50 RPI and sub-20 SOS.
Husson #6 SOS
549 rated team returning 9 players.
Husson scheduled about 5 of his normal pals who allways put up near 20 wins and have good programs. Then we littered the rest of the NC schedule with what looked like ezier games as at the time I still wasn't sure we'd have rebuilt and be able to play decent yet, (and didn't want to go 0-10) in NC. We have actually come along pretty well and now hope to win 7-8 NC games. I expect (HOPE) to again get the RPI down to sub-50 by the end of the season, and have a SOS alittle below 100?
South
MMA 9th SOS
497 rated overall, 9 returning.
BW, has 3 jrs and 6 sophs, so he's still a little young but getting better. He might win half or more of his NC games. His schedule isn't extremely tough but he doesn't have any push-overs in there either. Some RB help would go a long way to shore up the inside there,
Farmington 5th SOS
498 rated overall, 9 returning.
Coach Floyd also only returns 3 upperclassmen. the problemo here is tho that his schedule appears on paper to be considerably harder than the MMA one. With only 2 teams barely below 500 rated, and 4 over 525 or so, it could be a tough early season at Farmington,,, time well tell.
Mt. Ida 3rd SOS
564 rated overall, returning 10 players.
Ida appears on paper to be ready to make a good run at the NT. 6 seniors should allow them to handle what appears on paper to be a very nice schedule. With 2 or 3 decent tests and the rest slightly below them, they could cruise out of the NC portion with 8 or more wins and be rolling right along.
Thomas 7th SOS
593 rated overall, returning 8 players.
KUj returns 4 srs and 4 jrs. They SHOULD be VERY dangerous. I don't see the peril looming in the NC portion that Cyben spoke of. I really only see 4-5 teams on the NC portion playing them to within 15pts or so. The other 5-6 should be rompins. Not that the teams are that bad... I just think Thomas should be that good.
Salem St. #1 SOS
546 rated overall, and returning every stinkin player ;-) one dozen!
The Fun-N-Gun at Salem St. is about to take flight. With 3 srs, and 9 jrs (who are prolly better than the srs), The next 2 seasons at Salem should be interesting. They have scheduled a very good NC slate and should have far and away their best RPI that coach Lucky has had at Salem. Witchcraft I say!
UMPI #11 SOS (guess)
6 new players (freshmen), usually spells disaster, however the schedule Gods were kind and Will doesn't have a very tough NC schedule. The conference portion will be a very trying 16 games. Good Luck and we're glad your here
Peace outtttt
1/12/2008 1:43 PM
not sure on too many of the improvement gains, but Truex increased his stamina a bit, so now hopefully he will be able to stay on the floor and use his skills. Also what do you guys think about cutting Mincy because he certainly does not fit the mold of good perimeter shooter and he does not have great speed/ath
1/12/2008 1:57 PM
Mincy?... i think your gonna need him next season. He is the Flash compared to the other cat.
1/12/2008 2:08 PM
ok, yeah i know I can't even remember his name, but I thinking that maybe I will just wait and see in recruiting and maybe just stick with the lineup I have.
1/13/2008 9:58 AM
ok, yeah i know I can't even remember his name, but I thinking that maybe I will just wait and see in recruiting and maybe just stick with the lineup I have.
1/13/2008 9:58 AM
Who's doing our recruiting breakdown?

Actually, I'll do my team.

The lasers might have been spoiled from last year, because this year it seems like the talent was horrible to choose from, and the fruit never fell.

Darrel Moore PF: With us losing 2 bigs next year but having 2 to replace them, this kid is a will ride the pine for few years and be a good backup. His Reb/Def/SB/LP are nothing to write home about, but his Ath/Sp is. Should help with the FB and transition to the Press. WE a little low for my tastes.

Joel Cole SG: This kid has potential, he plays D, is fast, and has decent WE. He might be able to shoot by his Jr or Sr year.

Dustin Griffin SF: This kid is a speedster, with just enough points (30+) in all his stats to be able to raise them, he may amount to something someday.


All in all, these guys will back up last years class. The drop downs didn't seem to drop this year and I was hanging on the final day.

1/17/2008 4:18 PM
Yeah I thought the dropdowns never dropped and the few that were interested in me never dropped and I ended up with a horrible class with one walkon and a pretty good ballhandling/passing prospect, but not much else.
1/17/2008 11:09 PM
I’ll play along with my recruits this year. It’s an interesting foursome coming to Thomas this year. (For me at least.)

Dennis Davis is probably the class headliner, especially since he was willing to redshirt. Davis is an ok prospect, but with five years might turn into something pretty good. He’s listed as a PF, but his ratings are more of a SF and that’s where I will likely play him. His 61 rebounding rating is excellent. Nothing else is special but he should have improvable ratings in all of the SF categories. Of slight concern is that his ball handling and passing are both rated at 20. I thought that should be a good enough starting point so that he’d be able to improve both. As of now, he’s yet to show any improvement in those categories despite five days of practice while his low post rating of 30 and perimeter of 38 have each gone up a point despite an equal amount of practice minutes in the four categories. He has a decent work ethic of 53 so I think he’ll be ok. The other concern is that his stamina is a 49. I’m hoping that five years of practice will fix that. However, since he’ll be practicing in more categories than a typical player, I won’t be able to pump in the conditioning minutes and he might never be able to play a full game. Overall, I feel pretty good about Davis’ future at Thomas.

Domingo Diaz wasn’t exactly what I was looking for in this year’s recruiting class. However, none of my primary dropdown targets for post players fell to me and he was the only secondary one that did. It was sign Diaz or no post player whatsoever. Given my lack of a recruiting class the year before, it seemed a bit risky to go two years without a post player so Diaz it was. Diaz is very similar to where Randy Meader was when I recruited him two seasons ago. Both player had below average post games – both in LP and REB ratings. And both had very good athleticism and speed ratings for a PF. Not your typical post player but one that can be effective. Meader had the advantage of getting to start as a Freshman, and he’s turned into a pretty good player by the start of his Junior year. I’m hoping that Diaz can come close to following in Meader’s footsteps. It’d be nice to have a more typical post player recruit that came in with high LP and REB ratings, but Diaz is an ok second choice.

Mitchell Cummings is my worst recruit long term but he might also be the most important in the short term. Cummings is a SG with good – but not great – ratings. And given that his work ethic is 26 it is very unlikely that he can become a good player. However, he has pretty good starting ratings and I was unable to find a dropdown candidate that was much better. More importantly for me in the short term, he came to campus knowing my offensive and defensive sets. Next year, I’m going to have four pretty good seniors and I’ll need a fifth player to step up in the starting lineup. I’m hoping that Cummings can be that guy. I fully expect that he’ll get passed on the depth chart as he becomes an upperclassman. But as we start play next season, it will be nice to have Cummings as a starter with non-terrible ratings as well has having a B-/B- IQ. Thomas won’t be too good next year with just the four upperclassmen. But if Cummings turns out ok, there might be a chance to make the Postseason Invitational.

George Kennedy might actually end up being worse than Cummings. I’m already starting to have buyer’s remorse. Kennedy actually has the potential to be an outstanding player. He’s a SG but has SF skills. He has fantastic athleticism and speed to go along with ratings in the other five SF categories that can be improved. The problem with Kennedy is threefold. First and foremost, he WE is 18. After five practices, he has shown no improvement in any category. He has fantastic baseline ratings, but if they don’t move, he’s not going to be any good. Second, he’s dumb. With a 2.5 GPA I’m going to have to pump study hall minutes into him and that means less practice minutes that were already being divided pretty thin with all of the SF categories. And third, he might not ever get the playing time to improve his WE. He’s not going to play this year with Thomas having eight upperclassmen. And while there is playing time available next season, Kennedy is probably going to be third in the depth chart at SF behind Meader and Davis. Kennedy could probably be a phenomenal player on a team where he redshirted and then started for four years. Since Thomas isn’t that team I suspect he might end up being a wasted recruit.


I’d give this recruiting class a C+ grade. Davis was a pretty good recruit and Diaz has the potential to start for two years. Throw in a year of Cummings starting and it isn’t a terrible class. That said, you’d like to recruit guys you see starting as seniors. I don’t see Cummings starting as a senior unless I blow recruiting next year. And Kennedy doesn’t look like he will improve nearly enough to hold off his younger competitors.

It’s a recruiting class that should help Thomas stay better than most DIII Allen teams. But it’s a class that did little to catch up with Lasell and Husson. I’m not sure I’ll ever be able to catch up with those two programs … but we took a small step back in our attempt to do that this time around.
1/21/2008 10:03 PM
You should ask Elmo what happens when you completely abandon the Defense stat. ;) I almost made that mistake a season or two ago.
1/22/2008 11:54 AM
don't really even have to ask me... just watch my record over the next couple of years :(
1/22/2008 3:41 PM
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2/1/2008 5:03 PM
Wow, that is really cool. Thanks, ku
2/1/2008 6:25 PM
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