Something tells me its a good thing I missed out on this thread.
4/14/2010 12:39 AM
Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 4/13/2010
Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 4/13/2010

If you use the "its only one game" argument to protect a flawed sim time and time and time again, then you'll never address/find out what's truly wrong with the game. At what point/frequency does "its only one game" not apply anymore? Its an incredibly weak, ****** excuse for a poor sim result, and WIS has used this excuse time and again, and it looks like a lot of its loyal users do as well. My argument isn't hard to understand and follow.

If you'll notice, I've said repeatedly that I do think there are sometimes game results that are so far over-the-top that they shouldn't happen. Doesn't this lend creedence to my entire argument that something is wrong, and that if THINGS THAT SHOULDN'T HAPPEN AT ALL, happen one time that there's something wrong? People are saying that because it happens less than 5% of the time or so, that its acceptable and in the grand scheme of things, doesn't really matter. I completely disagree, if you have 1 bizarre result out of 10 million its worth looking into and investigating how and why X, Y, and Z happened. The sim screwing up every once in a while simply isn't good enough for me.

However, I've also said that the majority of games that you something think meet this criteria in fact do not. Simply put, you are a very poor judge of this. Disagreed...I think you err on the side of WIS apologist and you look to justify bizarre results at all costs before you admit/suggest something is really wrong. If real life is your benchmark for the sim, then the sim can never be wrong, and that's the problem with your logic, and everyone else who thinks that way, and perhaps the bigger problem is, you don't see how that's a problem.

4/14/2010 9:42 AM
Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 4/14/2010
<<This is so funny, it literally makes my sides hurt from laughter. Over the last several years, no one has consistently pushed WIS harder, questioned them more or tried to bring about positive change more than I have. (And unlike you, I don't just ***** repetitively, I actually work for improvement.) That's awful presumptuous for you to suggest that I haven't "actually worked for improvement" as you don't know what I've done behind the scenes to try to make the game better, thus I take exception to that statement. I think my thoughts in these various threads as well have at least gotten people thinking about things in a different light than they would have before hand. So for you to sit here and say I'm not objective or am a WIS apologist is absurd to the point of destroying any tiny shred of credibility you were clinging to. You're more pro-WIS than you are anti-WIS. Every time I see you post, you have the WIS flag in your hand...I'm only going based on what I've seen...not what you were when I wasn't here. It would be like calling Ralph Nader a pawn of corporate America. It's totally senseless. A wake-up call to check yourself.

And, for the zillionth time, taking a look at real life does not absolve all unexpected results from HD. It simply absolves some that you erroneously consider to be too crazy to happen due to a combination of your lack of understanding of HD and poor critical thinking skills. The sim should be less random than real life, thus just because it happened in real life doesn't necessarily mean that it could/should/would happen in this sim. I don't understand why this concept is so hard to grasp. The players in this game have HARD, NUMERICAL RATINGS to which everything is supposed to be based off of thus there's a more concrete expectation of what you should get out of your players than in real life. Nothing is more random than human life. Jon Scheyer doesn't shoot 3s with an 88 PER rating, he's a damned good 3 point shooter but he's going to have hot and cold nights IRL. In theory, it isn't 88 out of 100 every time he chucks a 3. This game should be less random than real life, and if you don't/can't see/understand this, then we're simply done here. There are still some results that don't pass the smell test. It's just that you don't have the faintest idea of how to properly administer the smell test.>>Completely disagreed. Give me an instance where my "smell test" was wrong, I want a chance to defend myself.

<<That comment -- "outliers happen is not good enough" -- perfectly demonstrates your complete and total lack of understanding. Will you stop using the "you're ignorant" card, its getting tired. The point is, if your justification for bad/bizarre results is always "its only one game" or "outliers happen" then that's just crap....those are 2 weak, ****** copouts that absolve the company of responsibility while throwing the dirty laundry away, failing to even wonder why its soaked in blood. Whenever something goes wrong in the WIS sim, all I see their CS say is that "upsets happen in real life" I mean really, that's all you've got? That's supposed to pacify me for your inconsistent sim? Please. Again, at what point does "its only one game" not apply? To fall back on my trusty poker analogy ... you're the guy at the table who goes nuts every time his favored hand loses.

I've got news for you: Favored hands lose. It happens, it's supposed to happen, and it will continue to happen. Completely agreed and this is what your not understanding what I'm saying about this. Yes I agree with this, IF AND ONLY IF these results are happening because the sim is running ALL GAMES THE SAME WAY EVERY SINGLE TIME WITH A DIFFERENT SET OF RANDOM NUMBERS...and I don't believe that this is the case because I don't trust/believe in seble/WIS as far as I can throw them because of past instances and weak excuses/explanations for what has happened. Please understand my stance. If the game runs CORRECTLY AS IT ALWAYS DOES, then I'll accept bizarreness ALL DAY LONG. I don't believe that it does, period.Outliers are part of sports and they are a part of any game that features an element of randomness to it. If you don't get that, there is a fundamental shortcoming in your logic that is enormous and disturbing in scope. >> I'm suggesting that the bizarre results happen due to something other than regular engine output/randomness.

<<You are allowed to have this opinion. However, it is nothing more than a poorly-informed opinion Wow..., and not how the game was designed. How do you know...can you link me to something that talks about how the game was designed? You keep repeating over and over that there should be markedly less randomness in HD I never said "markedly" less randomness, I said it should be inherently less random than real life because it uses hard, numerical ratings and random numbers to decipher the output for each game., but that's not how the game is designed, and that would not be at all accurately reflective of how basketball actually works. Its comments like these that lead me to believe that you don't understand/grasp what I'm saying. If the game is less random than real life, it doesn't mean that it isn't working like real life basketball....wow.....

As you've been told many times by many people: If you want something that boringly predictable that doesn't even resemble sports, go back to playing a computer game. >> I don't, I want a game that runs THE EXACT SAME WAY EVERY SINGLE TIME FOR EVERY SINGLE GAME just with a different set of random numbers for each game to output a good result, and for the 1000th time, if I believed that the sim did this, I wouldn't have said ANYTHING. Bizarre results are 100% acceptable in any game if the engine/randomness work 100% correctly all the time...that's the point that you've been missing here. I'm not saying that bizarre results shouldn't happen, I'm saying they should happen because of normal everyday sim ongoings and not shoddy programming/maintenance. Your best advice for a critic is to go away...wow...


4/14/2010 10:08 AM
Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 4/14/2010Something tells me its a good thing I missed out on this thread
Was wondering where you were lol
4/14/2010 10:09 AM
Colonels, I hate to say it, but using ignorance is perfectly appropriate here as you are showing an appalling lack of understanding of how probability works that almost defies belief.
4/14/2010 10:16 AM
Quote: Originally Posted By doomey on 4/13/2010
Twenty results that YOU question doens't make it a problem. That's 20 out of thousands and if they are all like this one, then it isn't even that much of an outlier. There are certainly more instances than that, not all go announced, and I certainly haven't seen them all.

So your response to something that let's say 100% of HD agrees upon SHOULD NEVER HAPPEN in an HD game is "ok" in your book because it doesn't happen that often. Unbelievable, and you say that I have problems with logic...

Saying that some results aren't the travesty you think doesn't mean we are justifying all aborrations, just not the ones you are harping on. So there are varying degrees of ineptness in HD where some are acceptable and others are unacceptable? Unjust is unjust my friend, whether 1 objective person thinks so or 1 million objective people think so...you should never be ok with something that is wrong.

If you "throw real life out" what exactly does the sim aspire to simulate? Point is, real life can't and shouldn't justify everything in this game and that's the only excuse I always see used here "upsets happen"...weak. Some people actually attempt to explain things away, but again, it almost never equates to the point swing/magnitude of what actually happened. Some wierd metric that only exists in your mind? Like I posted to dalter, just because the sim inherently should be less random than real life because of hard, numerical ratings doesn't mean that the game isn't going to operate like RL basketball. I want to win and lose in this game based on my team talent and coaching, not being rewarded or penalized by a blip in an inconsistent, shoddy? sim engine.

And since you keep failing to understand my correlation of a 96 game win streak, show me one in real life then tell me the statistical probability of that occurring. That is an outlier as well. This is the PROTOTYPICAL example where real life doesn't apply. If a team is considerably better in team composition and coaching, I know the overall team rating isn't always the best judge of team talent, but let's say that the 96 consecutive wins team has a 50 to 100 point OTR advantage over all of its opponents...why is it hard to believe that they would win 96 straight conference games? Add on top of that the fact that they play press which a few/a lot of people think is GOLD in this game and probably a fair amount of wins over Sim AIs, and its incredibly easy to believe and justify a 96 game conference win streak. If you're consistently better than all of your opponents practically all the time...why is it surprising that they haven't lost?

You saying that a team shouldn't win 96 conference games in a row just because it would never happen in real life nowadays is RIDICULOUS, and if you still can't tell how comparing a 96 game win streak to a 1 game sim engine massacre is apples to oranges, then I'm at a loss for words. Its common sense man.

4/14/2010 10:25 AM
Quote: Originally Posted By a_in_the_b on 4/14/2010Colonels, I hate to say it, but using ignorance is perfectly appropriate here as you are showing an appalling lack of understanding of how probability works that almost defies belief.
We have a difference in expectation here. You guys are ok with results THAT SHOULD NEVER HAPPEN every once in a while, and I am not.

The issue here isn't that bizarre results happen, its how/why they happen. Like I said prior, every bizarre result in my Home Run Derby game is justified, even a 100 HR swing because the engine is great, the randomness is great, and every game is run the exact same way, every single time with just a different set of random numbers.

If I thought WIS' HD sim ran the same way, I would have never said anything. Yes the complexity of the games is vastly different, but the bottom line expectation out of both products should be the same.

If a team wins by 100 on the road then loses to that same team by 100 at home, I'm 100% ok and happy with that outcome if its output because of regular, everyday good engine play/randomness.

Again, I don't believe that to be the case and I presume their to be a problem with the PRNG, the potential of "extra" randomness being programmed into the game, and/or just an overall problem with the engine because its too complex for its own good and the engine's creator is no longer employed with the company. It could be none of those, it could be all of those, it could be something different, but under no circumstances do I think that the HD sim is without flaw. Bottom line, if there's nothing wrong with the engine, then why fix it?
4/14/2010 10:40 AM
You keep saying this should never happen. What should never happen? Upsets? Blowouts? We aren't talking about a 200 point swing here, Mr. Hyperbole, we are talking about the favorite blowing out a team at home and losing close on the road, niether of which turns heads because it is well within not only believable, but statistical credibility.

And for the record, I'm NOT saying that a team shouldn't win 96 games, I'm pointing out that you are inept at deciphering probability and results. You simply cannot look at one game and declare anything regarding the curve. I was merely pointing out that from a purely statistical point of view, 96 wins in a row is much more strange than a one game blowout or upset.

Your problem is you don't even look at the factors involved and you don't have any clue on how the engine is designed. Circumstances changed between games, so with even AVERAGE randomness put in these results are acceptable. You insist that these results are shoddy programming instead of results well within the probability curve. Even if there 20 to 100 such results, within the thousands of results generated they are within a normal curve as outliers when attempting to approximate the same curve as college basketball. Were there 100 each day, then that would be an issue, but we are talking rare and acceptable instances.
4/14/2010 12:13 PM
The question is if College of Charleston played UNC 2000 times, 1000 times at home, 1000 times on the road, what would happen?

999 times UNC would win at home, maybe let's say by an average of 20 pts and a standard deviation of 5 pts.

950 times UNC would win on the road, and let's say by an average of 10 pts and a standard deviation of 5 pts.

This means that UNC would win by 30 pts or more 5% of the time when they play at home.

It means they would lose on the road 5% of the time.



How could College of Charleston beat UNC? That would have to be one crazy box score.
4/14/2010 1:39 PM
The assumption that real life should be more random than a simulation is faulty.

Being sick or injurred or depressed or breaking up with your girl-friend and shooting 1-15 is an outlier that happens in real life as well as in a simulation.
4/14/2010 1:57 PM
Colonels --

For you to say that I'm pro-WIS or suggest that I'm an apologist is just sheer ignorance. The issue -- aside from the fact that you simply don't know very much -- is that you're unable to differentiate between being anti-colonels and pro-WIS. Simply put, no one has been more openly critical of WIS in the last several years than I have. Anyone who's been around can confirm this. To suggest otherwise just solidifies your ignorance.

Yes, the players in this game have hard, numerical ratings. No question. But what you're failing to undertand is that hard, numerical ratings do not and should not always result in the expected outcome. If you have a great scorer being guarded by a poor defender, there are times where that great scorer is still going to miss shots and have bad games. This is despite the fact that the hard, numerical ratings tell us that the scorer is superior.

Your Scheyer example shows exactly what you fail to grasp. A great 3pt shooter in HD is going to have good and bad nights, just like Scheyer in real life. For some reason, you think HD's Scheyer equivalent should have significantly less variation. But of course, that wouldn't be basketball, nor would it be accurately reflective of probability. If you don't get that, you should not being playing HD. (And really, you shouldn't be allowed outside without a helmet.)

You keep saying "I'll accept this result only if the sim is running the same for all games". You're contention that it doesn't is beyond meaningless. "Cuz I said so", coming from someone who doesn't understand HD or statistical probability, is simply a joke.

To conclude (for the zillionth and first time I've said this) ... there is no question in my mind that we see some results that should not happen. This is an accepted fact, as seble has openly admitted that the engine is not working completely as they want, and they are looking to fix it. To continue to argue this point is simply creating a straw man.

My point here is that some of the instances that you think are so crazy they should never happen are not so, and the reason you reach these wayward conclusions is because you have a (well-documented) poor understanding of HD and weak logical thinking skills.
4/14/2010 2:15 PM
I looked over the box score and am still trying to figure out how a 6 point loss by a fringe top 25 team against a solid unranked team on the road has spun into 8 pages.
4/14/2010 3:08 PM
in the old days, it was called furry nips blowback. Now its called colon-els19 blowback.
4/14/2010 4:07 PM
I over-reacted through frustration and started a thread. After seeing how many posts have occurred due to my op, I must apologize. Also, my apologies to anyone I may have directly or indirectly offended. This thread started as a venting session and has become completely ridiculous as the title suggests. Can everyone please stop arguing now? I appreciate the follow through in advance. God bless.
4/14/2010 4:32 PM
Well, I'm out. Only have to ram my head into this wall 10x before I learn my lesson.
4/14/2010 5:58 PM
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