Ridiculous Topic

jetwildcat
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Quote: Originally posted by pitino27 on 4/14/2010I over-reacted through frustration and started a thread. After seeing how many posts have occurred due to my op, I must apologize. Also, my apologies to anyone I may have directly or indirectly offended. This thread started as a venting session and has become completely ridiculous as the title suggests. Can everyone please stop arguing now? I appreciate the follow through in advance. God bless.
hey an argument like this was eventually going to happen, just happened to be in your thread
4/14/2010 11:29 PM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 4/14/2010

Colonels --

For you to say that I'm pro-WIS or suggest that I'm an apologist is just sheer ignorance. The issue -- aside from the fact that you simply don't know very much -- is that you're unable to differentiate between being anti-colonels and pro-WIS. Simply put, no one has been more openly critical of WIS in the last several years than I have. Anyone who's been around can confirm this. To suggest otherwise just solidifies your ignorance. Like I said, of all the posts that I've seen you make, a great majority of them have backed WIS, thus I'm only going on what I see here, not what you were when I wasn't here.

Yes, the players in this game have hard, numerical ratings. No question. But what you're failing to undertand is that hard, numerical ratings do not and should not always result in the expected outcome. I never said that it should If you have a great scorer being guarded by a poor defender, there are times where that great scorer is still going to miss shots and have bad games. This is despite the fact that the hard, numerical ratings tell us that the scorer is superior. If I thought bizarre results happened in this game because of good, everyday engine play, I wouldn't have said anything...when will you listen to this? I think there's something more afoot to bizarre results than the game working right ALL THE TIME.

Your Scheyer example shows exactly what you fail to grasp. A great 3pt shooter in HD is going to have good and bad nights, just like Scheyer in real life. For some reason, you think HD's Scheyer equivalent should have significantly less variation. But of course, that wouldn't be basketball, nor would it be accurately reflective of probability. If you don't get that, you should not being playing HD. (And really, you shouldn't be allowed outside without a helmet.) Again, if it happens within acceptable confines of the sim, fine...I don't believe that to be the case many times.

You keep saying "I'll accept this result only if the sim is running the same for all games". You're contention that it doesn't is beyond meaningless. Why is suggesting something is wrong with the game, meaningless? I think that bizarre results are happening because of things other than normal sim engine play/randomness, and until I see otherwise, why should I change my stance? Why are they fixing the sim if it isn't broken? "Cuz I said so", coming from someone who doesn't understand HD or statistical probability, is simply a joke. So your retort is "cuz I say so"...why is your "say so" more relevant than mine. Realistically, I can't prove that I'm right, but you can't prove that I'm wrong, and as long as wildly bizarre results keep happening, I reserve the right to think/believe that something is truly wrong with the sim, for whatever reason. You guys can talk about thousands of games, this that and the other....each game is run once, and if you get a bizarre result 1 out of 1 game, I think you have every right to gripe and wonder what's wrong with the game. If I thought the game was working correctly all the time, I wouldn't be saying anything PLEASE UNDERSTAND THIS.

To conclude (for the zillionth and first time I've said this) ...there is no question in my mind that we see some results that should not happen. I've accepted and understand this statement from you...so if there are said results, what leads you to believe that the sim works right all the other times too? You agreeing with this statement lends creedence to my argument that bizarre results aren't always a product of good engine play/randomness, and that's a big problem with the sim. If you agree with me, why are we arguing? This is an accepted fact, as seble has openly admitted that the engine is not working completely as they want, and they are looking to fix it. To continue to argue this point is simply creating a straw man. There's no reason to, we agree....again it looks like you're misreading a lot of what I say.

My point here is that some of the instances that you think are so crazy they should never happen are not so, and the reason you reach these wayward conclusions is because you have a (well-documented) poor understanding of HD and weak logical thinking skills. Stop putting words in my mouth. What I'm saying is, is that I believe that bizarre results happen more because of a bad PRNG/clustering, "extra" randomness, an overcomplicated sim, etc....than because of actual good sim play. Please get this through your thick head because this is what you're not understanding. IF I THOUGHT THE SIM WORKED RIGHT ALL THE TIME, I WOULDN'T BE SAYING ANYTHING.

4/15/2010 9:49 AM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 4/14/2010
I looked over the box score and am still trying to figure out how a 6 point loss by a fringe top 25 team against a solid unranked team on the road has spun into 8 pages.
Because its an argument based more on SIM principle than it is this one game, it just happened to be this one game that lit the fire in me.

BTW, you also conveniently disregarded the fact that Lane won game 1 by 39...that's why its an issue, not because they lost by 6 to a sim, but because the disparity between the 2 games was huge and relatively unjustifiable.
4/15/2010 9:51 AM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By doomey on 4/12/2010

Whose "eye test"? My "eye test" says there was an abborant game, but it wasn't the second one. My "eye test" says that both teams won at home and one had a blowout. Either game by itself can still only be taken as one game that may lie outside the norm (either the blowout was the anomoly or the close win), but even then, YES, if it fits in the bell curve, then it is acceptable. Once the outliers reduce the curve drasticly, then you can cry that the sky is falling.

You do realize that Kentucky St. did change their defensive positioning by 3 between games as well. Couple that with being at home and drawing more fouls from that, I have zero problem with the outcome in general. The first game got out of hand early and KSU played their backups more, thus increasing the margain of victory for the deeper team. I also see that KSU's guards got more shots the second game. They were two seperate games, the circumstances were not repeated so you can't have the expectation that the result will be.

I just wanted to revisit this post, because nobody said ANYTHING about the Kentucky State matchups, this thread is about the Clark-Atlanta matchups.

The Kentucky State swing is much more understandable than the Clark-Atlanta swing.

A. The point swing itself was less.

B. Kentucky State is human coached and as you noted changed their defense around (Clark is Sim coached and didn't do this).

C. Kentucky State's OTR is about 30 points higher than Clark...I know OTR isn't gold, but this is a significant difference when looking at how both sets of matchups played out.

Conclusion...the Kentucky State swing was/is MUCH MORE EXPECTED than the Clark swing for all the aforementioned reasons, and why you would choose to try to spin this thread argument to a different game is beyond me.
4/15/2010 10:09 AM
dahsdebater
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Has anybody else noticed that colonels has responded to 12 or 15 different criticisms with the same 3 sentences? All of which contain no facts?
4/15/2010 11:13 AM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By dahsdebater on 4/15/2010
Has anybody else noticed that colonels has responded to 12 or 15 different criticisms with the same 3 sentences? All of which contain no facts?
Would you care to clarify? I think a lot of us are just going in circles at this point and yes my claims about the sim are unfounded, but I don't think they're unjustified. I don't trust WIS, I've been screwed in other sims due to bizarre results across an entire season, I saw seble and tinmanpb ruin the NBA sim, so to say that I err on the Anti-WIS side of things is absolutely correct, but its because of nonsense and bad experience in the past.

I can't and probably will never be able to prove that there's perhaps something wrong with their PRNG and that it may be clustering, or that their may be extra randomness in this sim sometimes/all the time, or that the sim is too complex for its own good thus one "fix" leads to about 5 more problems, or whatever else may be presumably wrong with the sim. Even if WIS/seble came right out and said that the sim operates the same way, all the time, without flaw, I wouldn't completely believe them because of past experience, their "we're right/you're wrong" mentality, and the fact that WIS is more interested in damage control and keeping people playing what may be a flawed product, rather than telling the entire truth and losing a few customers. With that said, it isn't going to keep me from wondering about the game and its "invisible" flaws.

I virtually have no faith or trust in the company but I stick around because I still largely enjoy HD (for the time being) and the people playing it. I do think/know that there's something wrong with the sim, I don't know what it is, I can't prove it, and let's face it, a lot of the time the sim does things right. Rightly or wrongly, I have a higher standard. I want the game to be great/100% all the time and I just don't see it and its not just because of the game in question here, but others as well and through their other sims. Quite frankly, I don't think what I'm asking for is unreasonable; its nothing more than what I expect out of myself and my products.

I hope this at least clears up my viewpoint and why I think the way that I do, because though unpopular, I think/know that its a just way of thinking.
4/15/2010 11:27 AM
dahsdebater
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Quote: Originally Posted By colonels19 on 4/15/2010Would you care to clarify? I think a lot of us are just going in circles at this point and yes my claims about the sim are unfounded, but I don't think they're unjustified. I don't trust WIS, I've been screwed in other sims due to bizarre results across an entire season, I saw seble and tinmanpb ruin the NBA sim, so to say that I err on the Anti-WIS side of things is absolutely correct, but its because of nonsense and bad experience in the past
I can't and probably will never be able to prove that there's perhaps something wrong with their PRNG and that it may be clustering, or that their may be extra randomness in this sim sometimes/all the time, or that the sim is too complex for its own good thus one "fix" leads to about 5 more problems, or whatever else may be presumably wrong with the sim. Even if WIS/seble came right out and said that the sim operates the same way, all the time, without flaw, I wouldn't completely believe them because of past experience, their "we're right/you're wrong" mentality, and the fact that WIS is more interested in damage control and keeping people playing what may be a flawed product, rather than telling the entire truth and losing a few customers. With that said, it isn't going to keep me from wondering about the game and its "invisible" flaws.

I virtually have no faith or trust in the company but I stick around because I still largely enjoy HD (for the time being) and the people playing it. I do think/know that there's something wrong with the sim, I don't know what it is, I can't prove it, and let's face it, a lot of the time the sim does things right. Rightly or wrongly, I have a higher standard. I want the game to be great/100% all the time and I just don't see it and its not just because of the game in question here, but others as well and through their other sims. Quite frankly, I don't think what I'm asking for is unreasonable; its nothing more than what I expect out of myself and my products.

I hope this at least clears up my viewpoint and why I think the way that I do, because though unpopular, I think/know that its a just way of thinking.

By far colonels' best post in the thread. Obviously this game isn't working as well as anyone would like or they would stop releasing updates. I just don't think the game is in any way "screwing" anyone. I think the programming is legitimate, and in general I think everyone has access to the same basic pool of knowledge as to how it works. I think all of the results I've seen so far (not all that many, really) easily fit within the range I might anticipate. They just might not be what I'd LIKE to be anticipating based on how I would prefer the game to operate. This game is obviously far from perfect and certain strategies/attributes can be over- and under-valued.

Incidentally, I think SimLeagues baseball runs pretty well in line with what most people would expect. Lots of people get angry, but it's really stuff like "all my players are doing way worse than their RL numbers." Well duh - if everybody has above average hitters and above average pitchers and there's 60 or 80 points of difference between the hitters' averages and the pitchers' opponents' AVGs then neither group is going to get all that close to their RL numbers. But overall the results you get tend to be a reasonable average. Sorry, that was a long aside.
4/15/2010 12:12 PM
dalter
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" IF I THOUGHT THE SIM WORKED RIGHT ALL THE TIME, I WOULDN'T BE SAYING ANYTHING."

Yes, I know.

We all agree that there are flaws in the sim.

The issue here is that you're quite bad at recognizing which outcomes are truly, inherently flawed, and which are not.
4/15/2010 9:12 PM
sideburn
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This post could not be converted. To view the original post's thread, click here.
4/15/2010 11:31 PM
dalter
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Yeah, let's stick with this theme. I'll take my Badgers:

Beat Duke.

One week later lost to UWGB.

Lost to Illinois by seven.

Beat Illinois on the road by 15.

These are normal results. They happen. But colonels, no doubt if this happened in HD, you'd be on here saying, "That's ridiculous, how can a team that just beat Duke turn right around and lose to Wisconsin-Green Bay!?Brokenbrokenbrokenbroken".

And again, this does not mean that every result that happens in HD is justified, only that some of the results that you think are crazy, are not really crazy.

You are a very poor judge of which outcomes are truly crazy and which are not.
4/16/2010 12:32 AM
dalter
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And side, how do you expect to beat me when you've got all your cards in with SC basketball? True, I'm insanely jealous that you partied there with Shock G, but when it comes to hoops ... Harold Miner doesn't exactly leave me quaking in my boots.
4/16/2010 12:34 AM
sideburn
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But Michael Finley does?

Ron Dayne is NOT WALKING THROUGH THAT DOOR!
4/16/2010 6:18 AM
mccabemi
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The funny thing about these posts, is that both sides are in relative aggreement.

Neither argue that the engine is perfect.

The question is about what is evidence of the imperfect engine, which is relatively unknowable and subject to the circular debate we see in this thread.

It'd be interesting if at the end of a box score, we got a one sentence analysis of the game, pointing out outliers. For instance, "despite inferrior athleticism and rebounding, Chamanade won the rebounding battle 34-33" It might help people deal better with anomalies.



4/16/2010 7:34 AM
dalter
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Quote: Originally Posted By sideburn on 4/16/2010But Michael Finley does?

Ron Dayne is NOT WALKING THROUGH THAT DOOR!
RONALD LITTLETON IS NOT WALKING THROUGH THAT DOOR!
4/16/2010 7:38 AM
colonels19
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Quote: Originally Posted By dalter on 4/16/2010

Yeah, let's stick with this theme. I'll take my Badgers:

Beat Duke.

One week later lost to UWGB.

Lost to Illinois by seven.

Beat Illinois on the road by 15.

These are normal results. They happen. But colonels, no doubt if this happened in HD, you'd be on here saying, "That's ridiculous, how can a team that just beat Duke turn right around and lose to Wisconsin-Green Bay!?Brokenbrokenbrokenbroken".

And again, this does not mean that every result that happens in HD is justified, only that some of the results that you think are crazy, are not really crazy.

You are a very poor judge of which outcomes are truly crazy and which are not.

I completely disagree with your last sentence here, and your list of game results don't really apply to how I view anomalies/bizarre results/crazy outcomes.

You're offering up games against 3 different teams (and I've never made the one team to the next argument) here and the games against Illinois are rather team, given that the point swing is 22, and the fact that you out some vital information...human coach? player/iq improvement? time between games? OTR ratings? The game in question in this thread, there was a 44 point swing from game 1 to game 2, more than double your point swing, and was v. a sim coach that didn't make adjustments and a team that had a 70 OTR edge. I've probably seen worse instances of crazy outcomes, but when you look closer, this instance more than applies. Let's face it, you tend to "under sell" on crazy outcomes where I tend to "over sell" and this game in question probably doesn't belong in the "should never happen" category, but certainly the "wtf happened category".
4/16/2010 10:31 AM
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