Posted by schwarze on 7/26/2022 4:25:00 PM (view original):
Question:

When you are a few picks away from your turn, how many times do you change your mind by the time it is your turn? For me, and this is not an exaggeration... When 4-5 picks away, I am seriously considering at least 6-8 players.... by the time I'm one pick away, I've narrowed it down to 2-3 players... and my final choice really is dependent on exactly when the pick before me gets made. I was all set to take '73 Singleton with my last pick and had it all typed in and ready to go. But calhoop slept in a bit, and I had time to change my mind. So basically, my entire roster build is highly dependent on people's sleep schedule.

All the time. I really wanted 87' Raines. Was going to pick him twice and changed my mind thinking "I can wait 1 more round".......No Raines for me!

In this format (w/salary cap), you just never know what other folks are trying to accomplish. There are multiple $10M players still on the board, yet a guy like $3.8M Brian Harper (27th ranked C by OPS+) goes in round 4. This isn't a knock on alice's pick, but whatever his strategy is might be something completely different than what my strategy is or what your strategy is.

So in this version, I am not trying to employ "game-theory" to my picks. In previous versions of this theme, I try to estimate exactly when players are going to get picked (based on their perceived sim success) and try to get the guys I want right before others will want those guys. That won't work in this format. Somebody can value a $4M mediocre player as much as somebody else values a $7M decent player as much as somebody else values a $10M stud.

Version 3 Draft Strategy: Pick the guys I like, in the order I like them.

	ROUND 4
Pick	Owner________	Player__________	Salary_______	New Salary____	Pos
1	3dayrotation	1971 Ted Simmons	5,144,159	16,854,566	C
2	reddtrain	1967 Tim McCarver	5,774,001	22,858,187	C
3	BeAllEndAll	1972 Roger Nelson	6,569,265	24,139,737	SP4
4	Jtpsops	1987 Tim Raines	8,498,929	27,559,249	OF3
5	calhoop	1983 Wade Boggs	7,433,553	26,835,456	3B
6	schwarze	1968 Carl Yastrzemski	7,229,774	26,938,517	1B
7	thejuice6	1980 Mike Schmidt	7,334,500	27,092,356	3B
8	pmars2001	1981 Larry Gura	8,177,994	28,026,002	SP2
9	ff09	1985 Wade Boggs	8,885,346	29,053,402	3B
10	vilefileman	1972 Steve Carlton	13,925,133	34,512,416	SP1
11	midknight	1977 Frank Tanana	7,067,137	28,238,608	SP2
12	mllama54	1969 Jim Palmer	5,974,164	27,566,645	SP4
13	mpitt76	1988 Bob Ojeda	6,465,283	28,123,159	SP4
14	redcped	1978 Dave Parker	6,392,975	28,082,416	OF3
15	footballmm11	1971 Bobby Murcer	7,821,115	29,566,513	OF3
16	ronthegenius	1980 Rickey Henderson	7,505,943	29,823,188	OF1
17	nocomm999	1963 Dick Ellsworth	9,470,625	32,261,992	SP2
18	Chisock	1964 Frank Robinson	6,550,041	29,792,512	OF2
19	bigsteve12	1982 Robin Yount	8,381,647	32,038,733	SS
20	happyhours	1973 Ken Singleton	5,792,064	30,558,577	OF1
21	pedrocerrano	1983 Lou Whitaker	6,214,799	34,503,461	2B
22	njbigwig	1975 Don Sutton	8,215,897	36,694,909	SP3
23	alice	1992 Brian Harper	3,846,081	33,537,338	C
24	NebHusker	1973 Willie Stargell	6,302,674	36,446,448	OF3

MATRIX by Bucket
.

Owner	C	1B	2B	3B	SS	OF1	OF2	OF3	C2	B1	B2	B3	B4
--------------------	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----
3dayrotation	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
reddtrain	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
BeAllEndAll	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
calhoop	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
schwarze	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
thejuice6	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jtpsops	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
mllama54	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
pmars2001	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
redcped	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
mpitt76	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
midknight	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
ff09	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
footballmm11	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Chisock	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
ronthegenius	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
happyhours	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
bigsteve12	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
nocomm999	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
alice	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
pedrocerrano	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
vilefileman	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
NebHusker	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
njbigwig	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
--------------------	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----
Total	8	4	7	5	2	6	3	9	0	0	0	0	0

.

Owner	SP1	SP2	SP3	SP4	RP1	RP2	RP3	RP4	RP5	RP6	RP7	.	Est Salary	Rank
--------------------	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	.	-------------	------
3dayrotation	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1		95.8	23
reddtrain	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		94.6	24
BeAllEndAll	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0		101.3	9
calhoop	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		100.8	11
schwarze	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		99.1	15
thejuice6	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0		101.7	8
Jtpsops	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0		100.4	13
mllama54	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		96.5	22
pmars2001	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0		98.1	19
redcped	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		100.1	14
mpitt76	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		97.2	21
midknight	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		97.2	20
ff09	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0		102.9	6
footballmm11	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0		104.9	2
Chisock	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		98.9	18
ronthegenius	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		100.4	12
happyhours	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		99.1	16
bigsteve12	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		103.1	5
nocomm999	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		98.9	17
alice	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		101.1	10
pedrocerrano	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		104.4	3
vilefileman	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		104.9	1
NebHusker	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		104.3	4
njbigwig	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		102.1	7
--------------------	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	-----	.	-------------	------
Total	11	9	14	9	1	1	2	1	2	1	1		100.3	<-- Avg

MATRIX by Season
.

Owner	1963	1964	1965	1966	1967	1968	1969	1970	1971	1972	1973	1974	1975	1976	1977
-----------------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------
3dayrotation	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
reddtrain	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BeAllEndAll	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
calhoop	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
schwarze	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
thejuice6	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jtpsops	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
mllama54	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
pmars2001	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
redcped	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
mpitt76	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
midknight	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
ff09	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
footballmm11	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Chisock	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
ronthegenius	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
happyhours	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0
bigsteve12	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
nocomm999	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
alice	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
pedrocerrano	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
vilefileman	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
NebHusker	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
njbigwig	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
-----------------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------
Total	3	5	1	3	5	1	4	2	4	2	5	3	2	0	4

.

Owner	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992
-----------------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------	-------
3dayrotation	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
reddtrain	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BeAllEndAll	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
calhoop	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
schwarze	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
thejuice6	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jtpsops	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
mllama54	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
pmars2001	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
redcped	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
mpitt76	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0
midknight	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0
ff09	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
footballmm11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Chisock	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0
ronthegenius	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
happyhours	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
bigsteve12	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0
nocomm999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
alice	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
pedrocerrano	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
vilefileman	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
NebHusker	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
njbigwig	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
-----------------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------	---------
Total	3	1	6	5	2	4	1	3	1	4	3	4	4	4	7

Well, I don’t like mpitt’s draft strategy. I was going to pick Ojeda the past few rounds but kept talking myself into waiting. This time I was going to snag him for sure and….

I sent site mail proxies for tonight

1978 Rod Carew

1B

5,448,589

I started this journey with an "ideal roster". At this point there are 5 players that have not been replaced, if only for a couple iterations. (I've drafted 2 of those 5 already - you'd laugh at a couple of them remaining.)

In each round I try to pick the player most integral to the strategy I'm trying to implement, and then mutter to myself as I have to change plans again due to the intervention of other draft picks.

Well, I have three players in mind (same bucket) and I can't decide which one to take. It would help me out a lot of two of those players got taken right in front of me.

Filling my OF1 slot with 1976 Cesar Cedeno $5,677,328.

And with that pick, 1976 is the 30th and last season to have a player drafted from it.

C1

1970 Thurman Munson

$5,084,041

$29,223,778

Posted by schwarze on 7/26/2022 5:52:00 PM (view original):
Well, I have three players in mind (same bucket) and I can't decide which one to take. It would help me out a lot of two of those players got taken right in front of me.

Guessing drafting Cedeno didn't help with your dilemma...

via proxy, calhoop selects 1968 Luis Tiant, SP2 $12,351,391
Total = $39,186,847