^you're right, Cal cheated. good call.

Posted by oldresorter on 8/8/2010 9:58:00 PM (view original):

Posted by furry_nipps on 8/8/2010 9:47:00 PM (view original):
Isn't that how it should be though, OR? The elites should be going to elites, and the averaged type guys to the mid-majors.

real life for sure, but very different than the game was a couple of months ago, when the mid majors had a better shot at putting together some pretty competitive teams.  Furry all my teams are A or A+ prestige, it is to my advantage for this to not change, but it seems rather unfair to take away the more competitve environment that existed a few months ago as a conscious decision by those in charge, hence I have been trying to point out the mistake, at some point (very soon) I will give up on this quest, but for now I sort of feel like Custer making his last stand

The thing is, if it doesn't get fixed soon, it will take months for these low rating guys to clear out of the system.  REminds me alot of the FSS fiasco which did not have very good results in terms of coach retention while those players rattled around the system. 

furry, they have tremendously widened the gap between the top teams and everyone else. That's how it is in real life, but it's an awful move for HD.

And OR, this wasn't a conscious decision. I have talked to seble about this issue quite a bit, and he actually didn't see what you and I (and others) saw immediately, that the changes were going to be crippling for low/mid DI programs. So it was an "unintended consequence" ,... though I'm not really sure which is worse -- consciously making such a bad decision, or making a significant change and not having a good enough understanding of your own game that you'd be able to see something obvious like this coming.

And yes, very much like the FSS fiasco.

Posted by furry_nipps on 8/8/2010 10:41:00 PM (view original):
I was actually going to ask if any mid majors got up to an A+. I think they've been in the A- range, but not quite A+. An A+ school would be a school that doesn't just fall off like that. And if they have a few bad seasons, still bring in good recruits. I don't think zaga or memphis was there. Memphis got there recruits because the coach cheated, not because they were some A+ school. HD has boosters if you want to do that. 

I agree that Gonzaga was never an A+ school IRL.  My bringing in real life to the conversation is folly anyway.  WIS is not supposed to be a re-creation of real life.  My problem is that there is not a lot of "what if" left in the game.

Posted by furry_nipps on 8/8/2010 10:41:00 PM (view original):
I was actually going to ask if any mid majors got up to an A+. I think they've been in the A- range, but not quite A+. An A+ school would be a school that doesn't just fall off like that. And if they have a few bad seasons, still bring in good recruits. I don't think zaga or memphis was there. Memphis got there recruits because the coach cheated, not because they were some A+ school. HD has boosters if you want to do that. 

You can't use the cheating any longer.  Many Big 6 coaches do it too.  It's been all over the news in FB and BB.  Not only the USCs, but also teams that are "turning themselves in for minor violations."   Still, in HD, midmajors are at a disadvantage that Memphis IRL wouldn't be at because of the conference money.

Looking at RPI's in DI Allen, it's clear to me that we're already seeing the negative effects. The top 9 rpi's and 22 of the top 26 are all from power conferences. In previous seasons, there were always 8-10 non-BCS schools in the top 25 rpi. That's a sharp decline only two seasons into the new engine. And the Pac-10, Big 12 and SEC are poised to receive more NT bids than any of them have had in many seasons.

For anyone who doesn't realize the deleterious effect the new system will have on low/mid DI's (this group includes seble) ... don't know what to tell you.

I looked back at the previous three seasons and I was wrong ... 8-10 non-BCS was actually a low estimate, it had been 10-12 each season. Now down to four. Ugh.

Posted by gomiami1972 on 8/8/2010 11:27:00 PM (view original):

Posted by furry_nipps on 8/8/2010 10:41:00 PM (view original):
I was actually going to ask if any mid majors got up to an A+. I think they've been in the A- range, but not quite A+. An A+ school would be a school that doesn't just fall off like that. And if they have a few bad seasons, still bring in good recruits. I don't think zaga or memphis was there. Memphis got there recruits because the coach cheated, not because they were some A+ school. HD has boosters if you want to do that. 

I agree that Gonzaga was never an A+ school IRL.  My bringing in real life to the conversation is folly anyway.  WIS is not supposed to be a re-creation of real life.  My problem is that there is not a lot of "what if" left in the game.

And the point isn't where Gonzaga or Memphis are in real life, the point is this game is called Hoops DYNASTY.  Not Big 6 dynasty.

daalter, gotta call you on this one. Looking at Naismith D1 over the past years, here are the number of teams from the six major conferences that made the dance:

• Season 45: 30
• Season 44: 25
• Season 43: 30
• Season 42: 28
• Season 41: 27
• Season 40: 26
• Season 39: 26
• Season 38: 25
• Season 37: 26
• Season 36: 27
• Season 35: 26
• Season 34: 27
• Season 33: 30
• Season 32: 25
• Season 31: 20
• Season 30: 21
• Season 29: 21
• Season 28: 23
• Season 27: 23
• Season 26: 21
• Season 25: 21
• Season 24: 27
• Season 23: 22
• Season 22: 22
• Season 21: 18
• Season 20: 23

There are 27 D1 conferences, so the majors have been placing 19 to 24 at-large teams in the past dozen or so seasons. That still leaves 13 to 18 at-large slots for low to mid-major conferences. If the number of no-major at-large slots gets reduced to single digits on a consistent basis, then I think you have a problem. 

For those wondering, season 32 ended in mid-October of 2008. Potential was introduced in mid-September of that year, so it had not yet had an effect on Naismith. Changes were made in June of 2008 to limit class sizes to six (no more superclass teams) and to have Sim AI start recruiting undecided players the morning after initial signings had begun. I think the effects of both changes show up in the increased NT invites to majors.

cb -

It looks like based on your data, the avg went from 20-21 with the non FSS system to 25-30 with FSS recruits, itself a pretty high increase (7 or 8) - there only are 37 at large spots available (64 spots minus 27 auto bids) - if that number raises just a little more, there will be almost no bids claimed by any team other than elite conf schools.

naismith is one of the least far along in terms of playing with new recruits, so the effect is still to be determined (tark is the farthest along, I was going to do the stats for tark, then realized there is no easy way to get the info).  By the way, how did you get this data, did you click on each team - that is alot of effort, and I applaud it - but why is this so serious for you? 

I will say for me, I realized FSS was hosed up early and said nothing until it was too late, and the game lost alot of its top coaches, I told myself the next time something is wrong, I was going to speak up.  As many know, I spoke up loud and early in the Beta test phase, until seble threatened to kick me out of beta testing if I did not stop voicing my opinion.  I then stopped, as I will again soon, there is little point to beat this around like a dead horse. 

or, FSS played no part in the initial jump. I doubt that FSS-recruits played in season 32. These kind of things usually take a while to manifest after the initial change. I think it was the demise of the superclass (usually employed by non-majors) and the improvement in Sim AI recruiting. Remember that before the June, 2008 change, sim teams often had five or six walkons.

And I simply went to the archives to see the NT records. Sometimes the Big 10, SEC or PAC 10 wouldn't be among the top conferences, and I would have to count those by hand. It took only a few minutes.

Why is it a big deal to me? I abhor speculation, and like to see changes and trends represented by large sample sizes of actual data. So often the hype is different from the actual results. Almost just as often trends occur that are difficult to detect, largely because they are the result of a bunch of little changes along the way.

OR, you can get the info on the "Archives" tab-- look at past seasons' NT bracket releases, conference info is listed below the actual brackets.      

Posted by seabreeze on 8/9/2010 10:56:00 AM (view original):
or, FSS played no part in the initial jump. I doubt that FSS-recruits played in season 32. These kind of things usually take a while to manifest after the initial change. I think it was the demise of the superclass (usually employed by non-majors) and the improvement in Sim AI recruiting. Remember that before the June, 2008 change, sim teams often had five or six walkons.

so when I use your data to reach a conclusion you don't like, you simply make a blanket statement 'fss played no part in the initial jump' followed by the words I doubt????.  Ok i get  it, I sort of hate speculation too,  But you have to remember I can twist HD numbers to mean that the man in the moon is real if I choose to, won't change the issue at hand.

Posted by oldresorter on 8/9/2010 11:11:00 AM (view original):

Posted by seabreeze on 8/9/2010 10:56:00 AM (view original):
or, FSS played no part in the initial jump. I doubt that FSS-recruits played in season 32. These kind of things usually take a while to manifest after the initial change. I think it was the demise of the superclass (usually employed by non-majors) and the improvement in Sim AI recruiting. Remember that before the June, 2008 change, sim teams often had five or six walkons.

so when I use your data to reach a conclusion you don't like, you simply make a blanket statement 'fss played no part in the initial jump' followed by the words I doubt????.  Ok i get  it, I sort of hate speculation too,  But you have to remember I can twist HD numbers to mean that the man in the moon is real if I choose to, won't change the issue at hand.

No, no, no. Not at all. FSS played no part (at least in season 32) because it was implemented in mid-September of 2008, and season 32 ended in mid-October. It played absolutely no part in that season, because those recruits had yet to be recruited. Heck, they probably had not yet been generated. I think in Naismith, the earliest you can see the effects of FSS are in season 34 or even season 35.

By the way, season 24 in Naismith saw a whopping nine Big 12 teams make the big dance.