Basically, without going into a lot of detail, subject matter experts are generally very good at narrative construction, but shockingly bad at predicting the outcomes of policy goals and decisions. The primary case study that spawned the field of research involved asking academics and assorted Federal employees - many with access to classified information - to make predictions about the near and further future of the Soviet Union. They were all wildly wrong. The people who made the best predictions are generally intelligent, educated people who aren't experts in the relevant subject and are generally characterized by open-mindedness. This has been borne out in a number of fields since.

Although, reading your original statement again, it was probably true. Trump supporters by and large are less likely to be well-educated, and I would guess the average Trump supporter is anything but open-minded.

Depends what the AI knows, but yes, it can be trained in that. The smart (accurate) way of predicting outcomes is by comparison, not internal inspection.

Looking back at my post, the point may not be clear. The book is about prediction. My interpretation from the results of the cited studies is that the narratives constructed by the subject matter experts, and modified as minorly as possible on an ad hoc basis to accommodate all of their many predictive mistakes, aren't particularly meaningful. If they're not predictive then they really shouldn't be taken as meaningful interpretations of past events either. The best test of the relevance of theories in science is always whether they can predict data; I see no reason not to hold the social sciences to the same standard.

Posted by tangplay on 7/9/2020 8:18:00 PM (view original):
Someone who has studied criminology for 20 years is probably going to have a more valuable opinion on systemic racism than your average Trump supporter.

valuable to who?? I disagree. Their opinion may be more logical or based on facts, but that doesn't make it more valuable. My opinions should not really have any value to anyone other than myself. I maybe interested in what your opinion is. That does not make it valuable.

Ummm. Yes it does. An opinion that is well-informed is going to be more valuable than one that isn't.

I don't know why every debate with you has to be over semantics, wylie.

Trump is dismantling everything that was “great about the USA” and the fact that people talk about it and haven’t done anything about it is mind blowing.

Posted by tangplay on 7/11/2020 5:27:00 PM (view original):
Ummm. Yes it does. An opinion that is well-informed is going to be more valuable than one that isn't.

I don't know why every debate with you has to be over semantics, wylie.

then don't debate with me any more. Maybe we are just not defining value in the same way? If, for example, Dr Fauci says something about the virus, and Donald trump Jr says something completely different about the virus, most sane people would give more weight to what Dr Fauci says. Does that make it more valuable? Not to me. It just makes it more likely to be correct.

Yes, it would make Fauci's opinion more valuable.

As in, we as a society should and do value his opinion more.

Good one wylie! "Likely to be more correct" is not more valuable to YOU than some random butthead's opinion that you KNOW to be less likely to be correct.

THAT'S exhibiting a desire to argue just for the sake of arguing.
Tangy has you on this one.
You're lost on the semantics.

Better founded opinions (based on experience, knowledge, intellect, etc) are ALWAYS gonna be more valuable to ANYONE looking to make important decisions affecting their LIVES!

Arguing that a knowledgeable (evidence backed) opinion is NOT more valuable than somebody's random notion is clearly........... well. kinda nuts!

You know what? I don't care. I think I'm done doing much posting here. I get crap from the left and the right (I guess that really means I am a moderate) and I don't need it. I got too much other crap going on in my life right now to deal with any of this. You won't be seeing posts from me much anymore. Not going to say ever, because I will probably still post once in a while. Bye for now.

Posted by wylie715 on 7/12/2020 12:19:00 PM (view original):
You know what? I don't care. I think I'm done doing much posting here. I get crap from the left and the right (I guess that really means I am a moderate) and I don't need it. I got too much other crap going on in my life right now to deal with any of this. You won't be seeing posts from me much anymore. Not going to say ever, because I will probably still post once in a while. Bye for now.

You’re a good dude, Wylie. This bit here just read like a semantics debate, happens. Either way I always find your presence to be good.

Safe travels and Godspeed.

A Kansas GOP congressional house candidate got charged today with voter fraud.

Just last year he said that he was "concerned with election integrity."

Can't make this **** up.

https://twitter.com/HaitianDvorce/status/1283373121219821568

LOL

https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-news-staffers-erupt-over-tucker-carlsons-racism-say-bosses-created-a-white-supremacist-cell