Posted by MikeT23 on 2/21/2012 3:00:00 PM (view original):
Randomly.   As you're in more than one world, you've probably noticed "pitching" or "hitting" worlds.   Quite possibly you've even noticed a shortage of legit SS or C who can hit.    If not, you're in three similar worlds or haven't been paying attention.

Then I am not sure we can say it is along any type of curve, or slightly off of a curve.

but I am not entirely sure that is true.. because then you should have just as many Duceys and turds, and you clearly see more turds.

It's a long way from prospect to CY candidate.   Owners can mess up a lot of players during that journey.

Anyway, at the BL level, average is a moving target.    I just think, due to the nature of HBD, that more players will fall below that level.   You'll have a handful of great players, some very good players, the majority in the average category, almost as many in below average and bad will be just about the same as the great players(the roster filling AAAA-types because owners won't call up a better player in hopes of "saving" him for next year).

Had to leave for a bit to do "real" work".... stupid jobs. 
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Mark Sheldon
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Wendell Ducey
Someone needs to post these ******* at the top of every page, if we are to continue this discussion... tired of clicking back in to the world to find them.
Something else to note (doesn't really matter for the discussion of how good this particular year was, but since FIP seems best for predicting what a player should do...).  Ducey had his career best (by.017 HR/INN... which is not insignificant) HR Allowed Rate in this season; Sheldon had his 2nd worst rate.  One could make an argument that Ducey just had a lucky run this season of not facing good power bats while Sheldon was a bit unlucky in that regard.  If you give both of them their career averages, Sheldon's FIP is 0.473 and Ducey's is 0.748 (not using the " league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number." as I don't know the proper way to apply that.

I love that this whole thread was because oriolemagic was boohoo'ing that his guy didn't win the Cy Young.     

I find it a bit funny that these guys are talking about FIP like they use it to build their staff.    For the most part, they're looking for control(as most of us do), velocity(which most of us barely notice) and GB/FB(which most of us use as some sort of tie-breaker).  I'd be curious when/where splits and pitches enter their decision-making process. 

Within the FIP Calc, HR allowed is the only thing that Ducey was better at... it's just weighted very heavily and he had an insane year, with regard to not allowing HR (he gave up 11 less than his career average for that many innings).  If you claim that Sheldon's ERA/WHIP are due to him being "lucky", why can't Ducey's insanely low number of HR allowed be "lucky"? 
I can see FIP being used as a tool to evaluate a player over-time, but as the main basis for a Cy Young vote, I just don't see.

Well, CY isn't a career achievement.  

Posted by frankum on 2/21/2012 4:16:00 PM (view original):
I love that this whole thread was because oriolemagic was boohoo'ing that his guy didn't win the Cy Young.     

Actually, though I strongly believed he should have Won, I wanted others opinions.  The exact reason I left it as player 1 and player 2 when I started the thread.  Simple enough to look up the players, but I wanted it isolated based solely on stats.

Posted by kcden on 2/21/2012 4:34:00 PM (view original):
Within the FIP Calc, HR allowed is the only thing that Ducey was better at... it's just weighted very heavily and he had an insane year, with regard to not allowing HR (he gave up 11 less than his career average for that many innings).  If you claim that Sheldon's ERA/WHIP are due to him being "lucky", why can't Ducey's insanely low number of HR allowed be "lucky"? 
I can see FIP being used as a tool to evaluate a player over-time, but as the main basis for a Cy Young vote, I just don't see.

Both could be to them getting lucky, it doesnt matter.  Cy is based on what they did this year.  FIP came into the discussion as a way to measure the innings and hr/rate.

It's not hard to figure out that anyone starting a thread like this is complaining because their guy didn't win.

KCD's point is that it's been said that ERA/WHIP are largely factors of "luck".  He's pointing out that Ducey's ratings didn't change but his FIP changed dramatically.  IOW, luck. 

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/21/2012 4:47:00 PM (view original):

Posted by kcden on 2/21/2012 4:34:00 PM (view original):
Within the FIP Calc, HR allowed is the only thing that Ducey was better at... it's just weighted very heavily and he had an insane year, with regard to not allowing HR (he gave up 11 less than his career average for that many innings).  If you claim that Sheldon's ERA/WHIP are due to him being "lucky", why can't Ducey's insanely low number of HR allowed be "lucky"? 
I can see FIP being used as a tool to evaluate a player over-time, but as the main basis for a Cy Young vote, I just don't see.

Both could be to them getting lucky, it doesnt matter.  Cy is based on what they did this year.  FIP came into the discussion as a way to measure the innings and hr/rate.

That was actually my point; FIP is only predictive, for what matters from a team W/L standpoint.  ERA is actually what happened. 
I suppose WHIP is only predictive as well, but it's the stat given and seems to be a pretty good measure of a pitcher's effectiveness.  From the limited amount I have seen, it appears to me that FIP varies a bit wildly with how many runs a pitcher ended up surrendering, but I guess I haven't seen a complete (or multiple) season of FIP vs. ERA for a league.  I have never noticed the same for WHIP... when I see a good WHIP, I usually see a good ERA (can't ever recall a great WHIP come with a mediocre to bad ERA... I've seen bad WHIP's with good ERA's, but not the other way around).

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/21/2012 4:51:00 PM (view original):
It's not hard to figure out that anyone starting a thread like this is complaining because their guy didn't win.

KCD's point is that it's been said that ERA/WHIP are largely factors of "luck".  He's pointing out that Ducey's ratings didn't change but his FIP changed dramatically.  IOW, luck. 

There is a line between complaining and inquiring.

I dont care that his HRA dropped as a result of variance, luck or whatever.  Thats irrelevant.  Whats relevant is no matter how you look at the advanced stats, Ducey was the better pitcher this year.  Cy Young is not a career achievement so I dont care about previous years.

And as bobzilla pointed out, its not just FIP that was looked at.