Quote: Originally Posted By swamphawk22 on 11/10/2009Has anyone else noticed this does not seem to happen as much as it should

How much should it happen, exactly? And how much does it happen, exactly?

Quote: Originally Posted By snake_p on 11/11/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By swamphawk22 on 11/10/2009
Has anyone else noticed this does not seem to happen as much as it should?

How much should it happen, exactly? And how much does it happen, exactly

You should go through your teams to see how much it happens.

Quote: Originally Posted By eayappert on 11/11/2009
It's obvious that a few guys in this forum miss FJM.

I think the problem with these speedy guys not scoring from 2nd is that their not consistently consistent in their approach to running the bases. But I can't really say for sure, since I haven't seem them play. Any way, the one thing I know for sure is that you can't expect to beat your opponents simply by outscoring them.

Post of the year!!!

Quote: Originally Posted By gjello10 on 11/11/2009Additionally, since HBD has more offense than MLB, you will see more opportunities for OF assists per inning played than in MLB (because of more baserunners, and more hits). That could account for most, if not all, of that difference

Isnt the amount of runs irrelevant. You can only get an assist on an out and there is 3 outs per inning, with few exceptions.

It's not about runs, but baserunners. You (generally) have to have a man on base to get an OF assist. You CAN throw out a guy trying to stretch a single into a double, but that accounts for a small fraction of total OF assists, and the batter has to get a hit for that to happen anyway, so it's still offense-related. So generally, more baserunners means more OF assists. Think of it this way: no one ever had an OF assist when the pitcher threw a perfect game. Well I guess in THEORY the RF could throw out a runner at 1B, but you get the point.

This post could not be converted. To view the original post's thread, click here.

BTW, now that I've sidetracked this thread entirely, and tying back to the other recently active thread on best names, has anybody had a player named Erstad or Eckstein?

Quote: Originally Posted By jonas1102 on 11/11/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By snake_p on 11/11/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By swamphawk22 on 11/10/2009
Has anyone else noticed this does not seem to happen as much as it should?

How much should it happen, exactly? And how much does it happen, exactly?

You should go through your teams to see how much it happens

You missed my point ... completely. Swamp was begging the question, and no one was calling him on it.

Quote: Originally Posted By snake_p on 11/11/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By jonas1102 on 11/11/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By snake_p on 11/11/2009

Quote: Originally Posted By swamphawk22 on 11/10/2009
Has anyone else noticed this does not seem to happen as much as it should?

How much should it happen, exactly? And how much does it happen, exactly?

You should go through your teams to see how much it happens.

You missed my point ... completely. Swamp was begging the question, and no one was calling him on it

You missed my point completely. Since you have no teams, quit posting in the forum. Thanks.

To half of snake_p's question - the "how often should it happen" half - here's what I could find about freqency of attempting to get an extra base (scoring from 2nd on a single) in MLB:

Data for 1993 -2006 MLB - Data found on Tom Tango website with raw play-by-play data from Project Scoresheet
 

0 Outs (Attempt to advance extra base ) 46.1% / (Success rate) 97.1%
1 Out 59.2% / 95.4%
2 Outs 81.7% / 94.3%

Now, as far as figuring out the HBD frequencies, you're on your own, at least for now

Here's a very small quantitative sample of actual frequencies of runners on 2B attempting to score on a single. I looked at the first 61 games (up through the amateur draft) of my team in Hamilton NL. Then I got bored...

I was a bit surprised how few of these situations arose. Only 51 times in 61 games:

0 Outs 7 events / 4 attempts to score/ 1 time thrown out
1 Out 19 events / 11 attempts to score/ 1 time thrown out
2 Outs 25 events / 19 attempts to score / 1 time thrown out

0 Outs 71% attempts to score/ 80% success
1 Out 58% attempts to score/ 91% success
2 Outs 76% attempts to score / 95% success

These admittedly small sample size percentages are not very different than the actual MLB rates I posted above. The success rates are a bit low, but I had my managerial settings on 4 for baserunning aggressiveness, and one less time thrown out would put the HBD numbers right at the MLB rates.

Player speed ratings definitely make a difference. 5 guys with speed ratings < 40 attempted to advance 50% of the time, overall (9 of 18), and got thrown out twice; The other 5 guys, all with speed ratings over 75, attempted to advance 78% of the time (26 of 33) and got thrown out once. I didn't see much dependence on baserunning ratings, but I didn't have as much spread in player ratings either, and I didn't really crunch any numbers.

This NL team was decent offensively, but not great - within +/- .005 of the world average in BA / OBP / SLG. Was about .550 winning % midway through the year, but mostly with pitching. 110 SBs, 55 CS on the year. And we played in a neutral park.

This work wouldn't pass muster at a SABR convention, but I've satisfied my own curiosity as to whether HBD closely approximates MLB or not in regards to runners attempting to score from 2B on a single. I think it's about right.