Quote: Originally Posted By zhawks on 1/16/2010
I thought all that mattered was a teams ratings, not their past performance? hmm...

If you had any credibility you would have lost it right here

Dude, I'm all over this...

North Carolina's OTR is 797. Virginia's is 707...so....

A team with a 90 point OTR edge, favored by 40, coming off of a 44 point win at home a couple games ago, goes out and loses by 9 to a team that went 0-16 in conference in the regular season...

Yeah, nothin wrong there....

Reminds me of when Georgia won the SEC Tourny a few years ago, coming from basically nowhere and also having to play 2 games on one day due to the tornado that hit the Georgia Dome. Highly improbable.

Quote: Originally posted by cthomas22255 on 1/16/2010Reminds me of when Georgia won the SEC Tourny a few years ago, coming from basically nowhere and also having to play 2 games on one day due to the tornado that hit the Georgia Dome. Highly improbable.

I know it. I was actually there for that. Very good reference.

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oooooooooooooo so they're still down 58 OTR

COlonels, its only a problem when you, wrongly, view the aggregate Ratings number as a ironclad indicator of how suited a team is to winning in general, much less winning a specific game.

Quote: Originally Posted By a_in_the_b on 1/16/2010
COlonels, its only a problem when you, wrongly, view the aggregate Ratings number as a ironclad indicator of how suited a team is to winning in general, much less winning a specific game.

You can throw out OTRs completely here...NC beat VA at NC by 44, a couple games later VA beats NC at a neutral site by 9.....the location improvement justifies a 53 point swing? I think not.

Quote: Originally posted by a_in_the_b on 1/16/2010COlonels, its only a problem when you, wrongly, view the aggregate Ratings number as a ironclad indicator of how suited a team is to winning in general, much less winning a specific game. 

Funny how a minute ago he was saying it shouldn't happen because of past results and now he is harping on the ratings?

And what I find even better is the fact that after 48932473289427 pages in that one thread he still forgets numerous things, including playing time, ratings aren't equal and the coach's game plan, among many other things.

It all just goes to show that this guy talks a big game for something he knows so little about.

one should also point out that Virginia lost 6 games by 4 points or less. They could have just as easily been sitting at 15-14 right now. I'm sure their youth and low IQ's accounted for the "close but no cigar" games. I think I saw three other games decided by 5-7 points. They are not as bad as it seems. Upsets? Sure. Just like real life.

IN real life, COlonels, teams rarely make as extreme strategic adjustments as they do here. Virginia wasn't that far from being 6 - 10 in conference. Also., . . .often on the sim games turn into blowouts because coaches don't have the bench cleared where in real life, they woudl be playing the waterboy and the gap woudl be closed.

Wow, Smacka. We both came up with the same thing in pretty close succesion.

yeah...I also have seen, albeit a high school team, a team with a "rookie just graduated from college coach" lose a series of games by 40 to 50 points the first go around early in the year, and 8 weeks later the same team beat each of the teams that had previosuly killed them by 1-3 points. 40-50 point turnarounds. Believe it or not, they do occur.