Miss St? They deserve to be out... Topic

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3/15/2010 6:21 PM
I've made a point that states that RPIs 60-75 are virtually equal. So it comes down to more. MN was 5-7 versus RPI 1-50 and they had beat OSU earlier in the season. Miss St was 2-5 versus RPI 1-50. Illinois was 5-9 versus RPI 1-50. MN also beat ILL.

If you want to make a case that the final game is more important than one 3 weeks ago, fine. But RPIs don't matter as much irl when they are very similar.
3/15/2010 7:12 PM
Quote: Originally posted by Rails on 3/15/2010I've made a point that states that RPIs 60-75 are virtually equal.  So it comes down to more.  MN was 5-7 versus RPI 1-50 and they had beat OSU earlier in the season.  Miss St was 2-5 versus RPI 1-50.  Illinois was 5-9 versus RPI 1-50.  MN also beat ILL.If you want to make a case that the final game is more important than one 3 weeks ago, fine.  But RPIs don't matter as much irl when they are very similar. 

This.

Minnesota's body of work was much better than Miss States.
3/15/2010 7:13 PM
Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 3/15/2010I know, I know...don't tell us about your rankings...but I have Mississippi State 53rd and Minnesota 64th....neither would have likely made it if my rankings were in place, but you also conveniently out the fact that MSU had/has a better RPI than Minnesota as well.Given Minnesota's final performance, a 29 point loss to Ohio State, I'm shocked as hell that they got in...it seems that the committee had its mind made up before the game ended, and that's a problem within the committee IMO.  Mississippi State the better lasting impression, and that should have counted for something.

I thought you hated RPI by the way? So why does it matter if one is 53 and Minn is 64? The point I am trying to make is that Minnesota had more Big Game wins where as MSU had more bad game losses.

Also in the past you have said 1 game shouldn't matter its all about body of work over the course of the season. When teams have comparable W/L records it usually comes down to the Great Wins and Bad losses in which case both times it goes to Minn.

In the end you are now thinking that a 1 point loss is different than a 20 point loss? You said that a loss is a loss the last time I remembered right? So in other words it doesn't matter that MSU loss in OT cause they have a loss just like Minn has a loss. I really don't think you can make a case that MSU has a better body of work.

No onto UTEP let me look them over.
3/15/2010 7:16 PM
Miss St (23-11):
Wins vs top 50 RPI: Old Dominion (27), Vanderbilt (26)
Losses vs sub 100 RPI: Rider (139), West Kentucky (132), Alabama (102), Arkansas (159), Auburn (153)

UTEP (26-6):
Wins vs top 50 RPI: UAB (36), UAB (36) *only other game was a Loss against BYU (13)
Losses vs sub 100 RPI: Houston (124), Houston (124)

As you see while UTEP doesn't play as high of RPI teams they still don't have the sheer # of losses against bad RPI teams like Miss St. does. In the end you gotta remember they lost in Conference Championship just like Miss St but they didn't hurt themselves like Miss St. did with all their bad losses.

I would side with UTEP on this one as a single digit loss # will almost always get you in.

Also:
UTEP 17-1 down the stretch or 9-1 last 10 games
Miss St 10-8 over that same stretch and 6-4 last 10 games

When looking at what they did recently you can also see Miss St. just does not have what it needs to get in.
3/15/2010 7:32 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By schroedess26 on 3/15/2010
Quote: Originally posted by colonels19 on 3/15/2010
I know, I know...don't tell us about your rankings...but I have Mississippi State 53rd and Minnesota 64th....neither would have likely made it if my rankings were in place, but you also conveniently out the fact that MSU had/has a better RPI than Minnesota as well.

Given Minnesota's final performance, a 29 point loss to Ohio State, I'm shocked as hell that they got in...it seems that the committee had its mind made up before the game ended, and that's a problem within the committee IMO. Mississippi State the better lasting impression, and that should have counted for something.

I thought you hated RPI by the way? I think its a useful tool, but by itself its kind of incomplete. With that said, its the main ranking that the committee looks at/takes into account So why does it matter if one is 53 and Minn is 64? The point I am trying to make is that Minnesota had more Big Game wins where as MSU had more bad game losses. Those 53s and 64s are my rankings which consider each game individually. In my field of 64, neither make it...but if one were going to make it over the other, it would have been Mississippi State rather clearly. What happened yesterday considerably backs my point/conclusion.

Also in the past you have said 1 game shouldn't matter its all about body of work over the course of the season. Right, it is and that's what my rankings reflect, however I was talking more from a committee standpoint where they take into account things like recent performance, CT performance, current team quality, and based on those credentials, I don't see how you take Minnesota over MSU, and to have it set in stone before the CT games were even played is simply ridiculous. When teams have comparable W/L records it usually comes down to the Great Wins and Bad losses in which case both times it goes to Minn. The entire body of work via my rankings says the opposite. I'll have to check the Massey correlation and see what that says.

In the end you are now thinking that a 1 point loss is different than a 20 point loss? You said that a loss is a loss the last time I remembered right? Point margin matters in my rankings, always has, thus certainly there's a big difference between a 1 point loss to a better team and a 29 point loss to a worse team. I never said or suggested that point margin didn't matter. So in other words it doesn't matter that MSU loss in OT cause they have a loss just like Minn has a loss. I really don't think you can make a case that MSU has a better body of work.

No onto UTEP let me look them over
3/15/2010 8:51 PM
You don't know what the "main ranking" the committee uses, they never release any information, not to mention it's a new set of people every year... just like when they were asked why Virginia Tech missed out he just beat around the bush on the Selection Show.

It's too bad you watched Miss State battle Kentucky, because just a couple games before I watched them lose to Auburn.

Instead of just watching conference tournaments (which you've already said are stupid) how about watch the full season?

No team that lost to Rider, Auburn and Western Ky belongs in this field.

The team with a horrible out of conference schedule, but performed particularly well in their conference is V. Tech. They beat Wake, GTech and FSU, finished above them in conference and won 10 games in the ACC.

I see absolutely no argument for Miss State getting into the field.
3/15/2010 9:13 PM
i can see how miss state should probably have been out, but "i see absolutely no argument for miss state getting into the field" is at least as ridiculous, and probably ten times more so, than what colonels is claiming.

they beat top 25 vandy and lost by 1 to kentucky in overtime, in a game they should have won, to close the season. no doubt they are more dangerous than a some of the teams that made it in ahead of them.
3/15/2010 9:19 PM
My biggest gripe about everything that happened is essentially the fact that Sunday's games didn't count...that's just mind boggling to me, given the relative importance of the games.
3/15/2010 9:26 PM
Quote: Originally posted by coach_billyg on 3/15/2010i can see how miss state should probably have been out, but "i see absolutely no argument for miss state getting into the field" is at least as ridiculous, and probably ten times more so, than what colonels is claiming.

they beat top 25 vandy and lost by 1 to kentucky in overtime, in a game they should have won, to close the season. no doubt they are more dangerous than a some of the teams that made it in ahead of them.

How can you base it all on those 2 games though? I agree that Miss State is good enough to be in the tournament, but besides losing to Kentucky in OT twice, what did they do to prove they belong? Why not challenge themselves out of conference?

Without that Auburn loss, that team is in the tournament.
3/15/2010 9:27 PM
you can't base it on two games, nor did i say you could. im also not saying they should have made it, although personally if i was a fan of one of the teams playing the last couple teams in, i would be happy miss state didn't make it.

i am just saying, "i see absolutely no argument for miss state getting into the field" is totally unreasonable. some are saying miss st should have barely made it. your claim is much, much more extreme. that is all i am pointing out.

on another note, i was glad to see VT out. if you are going to play a horrendous non conf schedule, you should need more than a mediocre conf performance to go dancing. the ACC was not good this year. and i didn't see any end-of-season spark to suggest they were more dangerous today than they were a month ago.
3/15/2010 9:36 PM
also colonels... i really dont think the committee gives a crap about rpi.

to me, the biggest outrages of the seeding process were cal and duke.
3/15/2010 9:38 PM
I don't personally see an argument to why they should be in. Being 5th in the SEC drops you off the list of teams that gets the benefit of the doubt in my mind and they surely didn't prove anything at all during the season except they "can" be good.
3/15/2010 11:22 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By coach_billyg on 3/15/2010also colonels... i really dont think the committee gives a crap about rpi.

to me, the biggest outrages of the seeding process were cal and duke
Again, I'm a Big Ten guy, not a Duke fan at all ... but saying that Duke getting a 1 was one of the two biggest outrages of the seeding process? Really?! I think that's preposterous. I've gotta assume that you're anti-Duke and that is coloring your opinion. They won 29 games, winning the ACC regular season and CT. The ACC isn't the powerhouse it's been recently, but it's still the #3 conference in most systems.
3/16/2010 12:18 AM
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3/16/2010 12:20 AM
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