Why does this guy suck? Topic

jweiland
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His pitches aren't THAT bad, are they? I mean 70, 63, 63? I feel like I've seen guys with much worse doing much better. Could be wrong, but that seems unrealistic. At least for this world.
3/31/2010 8:14 PM
jweiland
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3/31/2010 8:17 PM
tecwrg
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Quote: Originally Posted By jweiland on 3/31/2010His pitches aren't THAT bad, are they? I mean 70, 63, 63? I feel like I've seen guys with much worse doing much better. Could be wrong, but that seems unrealistic. At least for this world
For an effective reliever, you want to see them around 10 points higher.

Startes can get away with those pitches. Relievers, coming in late in a game when outs are at a premium, you want to see stronger pitches.
3/31/2010 8:25 PM
jweiland
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Well that is very good to know.

Thanks for all the insight guys. Appreciate it.
3/31/2010 8:28 PM
jweiland
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One last thing: tecwrg, do you think it would increase his effectiveness if I moved him to a role where he came in earlier, then? Right now he's one of my Setup As.
3/31/2010 8:29 PM
jonas1102
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He's a y specialist. Righties should absolutely destroy this guy. I'd guess about .330 AVG with a .390 OBP. He should be able to throw 30 pitches per outing, but since he is so terrible vs. RHP you have to limit the amount of plate appearances against them.
3/31/2010 8:43 PM
MikeT23
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Quote: Originally Posted By jweiland on 3/31/2010His pitches aren't THAT bad, are they? I mean 70, 63, 63? I feel like I've seen guys with much worse doing much better. Could be wrong, but that seems unrealistic. At least for this world


I out a "ing". No. 70, 63, 63 won't cut it for short reliever.
3/31/2010 9:01 PM
tecwrg
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Quote: Originally Posted By jweiland on 3/31/2010One last thing: tecwrg, do you think it would increase his effectiveness if I moved him to a role where he came in earlier, then? Right now he's one of my Setup As
You can keep him as a SuA. Just lower his pitch count and change his pull rating to 4. Or make him a SuB if you have better relievers. In that case, he'd only come in when other relievers are not available.

I disagree with jonas's assessment. First, specialists are a waste of a bullpen spot since they don't get enough work. Second, a vsR of 68 is not horrible. He'd be just fine if his pitches were better.
3/31/2010 9:07 PM
soxfan121
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I just cut bait on a similar guy; LH RP capable of 40 innings with a 68 vR and middling pitches. I was seduced by the high control and the 90+ vL split. In roughly 3 seasons, he was consistently mediocre or worse.

As for RP pitch counts, I use 5 pitches less than the rounded up STA rating. 28 STA = 25 pitches, max. 22 STA = 20 pitches, etc. I find that I don't get as many "empty 100%" performances - an RP showing 100% until the first pitch is thrown. I like guys to be rested and never exceed their STA ratings unless they get 3 days off after.
3/31/2010 10:01 PM
jonas1102
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Batsvs.AVG
LLH66.3
RH68.2
RLH67.3
RH61.7
SLH65.1
RH63.6




A y with a 68 split vs. RHB is not equal to a righty with a 68 split vs. RHB. A y with a 68 split vs. RHB is roughly equal to the average RH MLers batting split vs. LH.

This y with lower control, bad pitches, and an average split is going to get torched by RH batters.
3/31/2010 10:25 PM
schuyler101
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looking at his game log you'll see a majority of his bad outings came when he was between 30 and 45(!) pitches...most posters are right, drop the pitch count and you should be fine...

i am with miket though, this guy's control and pitches aren't as bad as some are making them out to be...
3/31/2010 11:34 PM
jweiland
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Quote: Originally Posted By jonas1102 on 3/31/2010
Batsvs.AVG
LLH66.3
RH68.2
RLH67.3
RH61.7
SLH65.1
RH63.6




A y with a 68 split vs. RHB is not equal to a righty with a 68 split vs. RHB. A y with a 68 split vs. RHB is roughly equal to the average RH MLers batting split vs. LH.

This y with lower control, bad pitches, and an average split is going to get torched by RH batters.

Can you explain this a little better? I'm listening it's just hard to follow because you don't explain exactly what that chart is. So you're saying a y pitcher with a 68 against righties would be ... league average? Below league average?

I'd kill for this guy to be anywhere close to that. He's about double league average right now.
4/1/2010 8:54 AM
MikeT23
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Quote: Originally Posted By schuyler101 on 3/31/2010looking at his game log you'll see a majority of his bad outings came when he was between 30 and 45(!) pitches...most posters are right, drop the pitch count and you should be fine...

i am with miket though, this guy's control and pitches aren't as bad as some are making them out to be...

It's rather common on this board. 72 and 68 are BL numbers for control/split. His pitches are the problem. Everything beyond that is just unrealistic jibberish.
4/1/2010 9:14 AM
gjello10
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Quote: Originally Posted By jweiland on 4/01/2010

Quote: Originally Posted By jonas1102 on 3/31/2010

Batsvs.AVG
LLH66.3
RH68.2
RLH67.3
RH61.7
SLH65.1
RH63.6




A y with a 68 split vs. RHB is not equal to a righty with a 68 split vs. RHB. A y with a 68 split vs. RHB is roughly equal to the average RH MLers batting split vs. LH.

This y with lower control, bad pitches, and an average split is going to get torched by RH batters.

Can you explain this a little better? I'm listening it's just hard to follow because you don't explain exactly what that chart is. So you're saying a y pitcher with a 68 against righties would be ... league average? Below league average?

I'd kill for this guy to be anywhere close to that. He's about double league average right now.

No- what he's saying is that your counter-example (molina) was a RHP with 67 vsR. What this chart is trying to say is that a LHP with 68 vsR will be significantly less effective (against RH batters, all other things like pitches and control being equal) than a RHP with a 67 vsR. This is because the LHP with 68 vsR will face RH hitters with an average vsL of 67.3, so there is no significant split advantage. Whereas an RHP with a 67 vsR with face RH hitters with an average vsR of 61.7, giving the pitcher a significant split advantage.

Or, to put it more briefly, you are underestimating the importance of handedness. You seem to think that a LHP and a RHP with similar ratings should perform similarly, when this is not neccesarily the case.
4/1/2010 1:11 PM
MikeT23
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That only holds water if LH batters hit RH pitchers better. That's definitely not the case. I don't know how many is "too much" but there are a lot of "reverse split" hitter out there.
4/1/2010 1:41 PM
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