Where to start this prospect... Topic

mhulshult
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Posted by moosep on 12/9/2010 7:13:00 PM (view original):
Posted by taz21 on 12/8/2010 12:19:00 PM (view original):
Recently signed this IFA. TCruz

Question is, where should I start him.  he could probably pitch in long relief in the majors right now, but he needs to develop his stamina before he could start on a regular basis and his vR definently needs some development before he could become a solid starter, vs just a so-so long man

As an 18 year old, I'm thinking 3 years in the minors, then bring him up to the show after 20 games, though he may be ready after 2 years of seasoning.

My pitching coaches in low A is a 56/55 pitching/patience ratings
                                      In Hi  A is a 64/30
                                      in      AA is a 72/53

Obviously the AA guy is the best coach, does the high A coach's low patience hinder this guys development too much?  My low A team will stink, low A should be OK, AA should challenge for a deep run in the AA playoffs (though obviously I could move him up for those)  Does that make a difference?  My $16 mil IFA scouting buget says his patience should top out around 89.  Is there anything I can do to ensure that he gets as close to that as possible?  at an 89, he'd stand a chance of being willing to resign at the end of his first long term deal, otherwise, I'd have to go to the market and meet all other offers to get him back.  Always better to keep him around for cheaper if possible.  Would he be greatly hindered sitting in AAA for 2 years (and 20 days) if I put him in AA this year, and move him up to AAA next year, but decide it best to keep him in the minors for 1 more season of development.
His stamina isn't 29! It is his durability that is 29. I will refer to my original statement, If you have a starting pitcher with a 29 stamina, unload him!!
A "starting" pitcher with a stamina of 29 would not be a "starting" pitcher.  No reason to unload a player based on stamina of 29.
12/10/2010 9:30 AM
MikeT23
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You could do any number of things.   Given the current situation, I'd obviously do what I suggested.   The short season in HiA, with a pretty good coach, and a call up for the AA playoffs seems better to me.
12/10/2010 9:31 AM
dedelman
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taz-- 
1)  Mike's right when he says, "You could do any number of things" with the implied "and he'd develop about the same."
2)  That said, I'd lean toward starting him with the good coach in AA.  You signed him basically on Opening Day, and the minor league season is only 10 games in right now, so the stakes are slightly higher for his development this season.  Therefore I'd maximize the coaching; I'm pretty confident a single season of repeating is not harmful to development.  But it's splitting hairs between that and Hi-A.
12/10/2010 10:05 AM
taz21
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FWIW, I originally went w/ the plan that Mike said, low A was never a real option, I only threw it out there for conversation.  dedelman's plan may get me a little more development, but I think its splitting hairs.

My main concern, or desire, is to maximize his $16 mil IFA scouting projection of an 89 patience rating.  A quick glance at a handful of ML players w/ high patience ratings tell me that the 89 projection is on the high side and he'll end up something lower.  At any rate, is there a prescribed path to maximizing that skill?  It makes a world of difference in a buget if a guy is willing to resign at 32 for a 5 year, $10 mil per season contract, rather than having to fight for him in free agency.  Even w/ the recent shift in a prospect favoring loyalty to his old club w/ even offers, the 5 year, $50 mil contract gives me a lot more room in the buget than the 5 year $110 mil contract this guy will likely get if he reaches his projections and goes thru free agency.  However, I have no idea what would maximize a guy's patience potential.  Does having minor league coaches w/ high patience ratings mean anything to this "skill"? Is it all about timely promotions (and what is timely, 1 level a season, I suppose or is it even more complex than that).  No matter if he starts in High A or AA, as long as he avoids injury, I'm pretty sure he'll develop into a TOR arm in a few seasons, its the patience rating that has me most intrigued.
12/10/2010 10:36 AM
aaronwayne
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Would this approach do anything positive, or would it have little to no effect:

Start him in HiA for 3 to 5 starts, 20 to 30 IP, then move him up to AA for the rest of the season? 

I ask because the AA coach is clearly better and because the kid's stuff should allow for him to handle AA.  The only drawback is his age.  I know the guide mentions that levels should be "age appropriate" and that a kid may struggle, despite his stuff, if moved too quickly.  Thoughts? 

Personally, I've been pretty aggressive with lots of my top guys.  So far they've seem like they've been able to handle it, and they've come pretty close to hitting their peak projections.  Even being aggressive, I still try to give them 3 or 4 seasons in the minors, depending on age.  An 18 or 19 year old will most likely see 4 seasons, that 20 or 21 year old 3, or if they really fly, 2. 
12/10/2010 10:54 AM
MikeT23
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I don't have a clue how to develop a "patience" rating.

But, back to something I believe, I think promotions do play a role in development.   Not a huge role but a role nonetheless.   WifS has said "timely promotions" play a role in development.   That could mean "Don't leave a guy in AA for 3 seasons" or it could mean something else.  WifS has also said the ratings show a "rounded" number.   IOW, a 74 could be 73.5 or 74.4.    I'm prone to believe a promotion "bump" starts the 73.5 guy off at 74.0 after the move.  I could be wrong, and probably am, but if I get a .3 bump for a player for simple "timely promotion", I'm feeling good.
12/10/2010 10:59 AM
dedelman
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My guess is that very few people think about maximizing patience; I certainly don't.  But trying to take a stab at it--
1)  Patience seems to improve in the offseason, so my wild-*** guess is that you can do nothing more than maximize your training budget.
2)  It's very rare nowadays for type A FAs to offer to re-sign, regardless of patience; with this guy's likely peak quality there's only a remote chance that he'll give you a hometown discount when he's 32, anyway.
 

12/10/2010 11:04 AM
taz21
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yes, this is the first time I've paid much attention to it, other than when deciding b/w two similar draft prospects.  However, even though most top shelf players eventually go the FA route, I've had more than 1 guy w/ a 90+ patience, former cy young winners, etc say that they're willing to return. 

12/10/2010 11:40 AM
new
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Posted by MikeT23 on 12/10/2010 10:59:00 AM (view original):
I don't have a clue how to develop a "patience" rating.

But, back to something I believe, I think promotions do play a role in development.   Not a huge role but a role nonetheless.   WifS has said "timely promotions" play a role in development.   That could mean "Don't leave a guy in AA for 3 seasons" or it could mean something else.  WifS has also said the ratings show a "rounded" number.   IOW, a 74 could be 73.5 or 74.4.    I'm prone to believe a promotion "bump" starts the 73.5 guy off at 74.0 after the move.  I could be wrong, and probably am, but if I get a .3 bump for a player for simple "timely promotion", I'm feeling good.
My take is that "timely promotions" may lead to an extra development cycle.  I do not believe that ratings are rounded for one simple reason: a player who is still developing and is traded during spring training virtually never gets a bump to his ratings.  Therefore, it is highly unlikely that there is hidden development which we only see when a player gets a bump.  Some of those mega propsects dealt during ST would have there hidden development revealed by the trade.      
12/10/2010 3:00 PM
MikeT23
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Depends on what you choose to believe.   WifS has said, many times, that the development cycles are just markers.   Doesn't matter if a player gets 4, 5 or 6 as they have no bearing on actual development.  
12/10/2010 3:40 PM
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