I would like to pose a question to anyone, and hope that I don't get back snarky answers. In anyones experience, has there ever been a case were draft pick below the third round ever amounted to a effective player on an ML roster? Even as a 4th or 5th OF/IF backup or RHS, LHS pitcher?
The one problem I see with the draft, and I admit I have a very small sample to look at, is that other than first rounders (and even then not all of them), you have a very small chance that anyone else will be good enough for the bigs. This seems to fly in the face of what HBD is supposed to simulate.
Would it be a problem to incorporate a better chance of finding late round sleepers if you spend enough money on scouting? If I spend only 10 mil, then I shouldn't expect my scouts to find a Mike Piazza, in the late rounds, but if I spend 18 mil, I would think the talent found in each round would be better, and I would have a chance to find a big leaguer in later rounds (3 - 6) than most.
Not saying it should or could happen every year but maybe a .5% chance of a sleeper find each round for every million spent over the league average?