My HBD Pet Peeve Topic

MikeT23
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Just to be clear, do you have any data to support your theory?   Like how many runners have you had thrown out at the plate in 19 season?  And the MLB average over several seasons?

I once threw two runners out at the plate in one inning.  Oddly enough, I never made it to the bigs.  You'd think someone with my mad skilz for one inning would have had a long MLB career, right?
6/12/2011 7:53 PM
jonas1102
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I once threw out 5 runners at first base from right field in the first two innings of a ballgame.
6/12/2011 8:08 PM
mfahie
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I don't have any way to cull the data, but I took some time to read 20 HBD and 20 RL boxscores (admittedly a small sample size), but one that I believe is at least close to the ratio (although probably above the true ratio) of HBD /RL thrown out at home trying to stretch.

In my last 20 games in HBD, between my team and my opponents, 7 runners have been thrown out at home. In 20 MLB games today and yesterday (14 today and the first 6 on the MLB page yesterday), only 1 runner was thrown out at home in this way.  (Someone also broke on contact from 3rd on a groundout and was thrown out, but that is not the situation I'm talking about).

Now my sample includes that one freak game of 3, but even still if the ratio is 4/1 it's still way higher than MLB.

If anyone knows how to get the data other than reading through all the boxscores, I'd be glad for them to get it.
6/12/2011 8:12 PM
mfahie
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I don't know why your little league/beer league stories are relevant.  We're talking Major League Baseball, and a game that simulates Major League Baseball.
6/12/2011 8:13 PM
MikeT23
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OK, I did a little HBD research(admittedly very little).   My OF assists in MG over the last 4 complete seasons:  17, 29, 20, 20.   That's runners thrown out at every base.   An average of 21.5 per season.  I checked 3 seasons from my Coop team.   Very similar numbers.  

Do you think that's a lot more than MLB? 
6/12/2011 8:26 PM
MikeT23
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BTW, the answer is "no".    OF assists in all my leagues are pretty much in line with MLB if not lower than MLB.   So, unless your guys are getting thrown out at home by infielders at an alarming rate, you're just looking at very tiny sample size and drawing inaccurate conclusions.
6/12/2011 8:45 PM
mfahie
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And mine are 26,26,33,28.  I'm having a hard time finding team OF assist stats, but the Mets had about 21 last year, so obviously the HBD numbers certainly aren't way out of line.  However, I'm not at all convinced that the number of OF-catcher assists is also in line with MLB.  For instance, just today in MLB, 2 players were thrown out at 3rd trying to get there from first. And I can't ever recall seeing a guy in HBD get thrown out trying to stretch a double, which I've certainly seen in MLB.

So I guess the OF assists even out overall.  But I can't help but hate to see runs/baserunners taken away on the stupid choice to go for home when you're not pretty sure to make it. Of course I like it when my guys get those assists in terms of the game, but it still tweaks me in terms of realism. 

Like I said, it's my pet peeve.
6/12/2011 9:25 PM
MikeT23
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MLB league leaders are usually mid-upper teens.   HBD league leaders are a little less. 

Nonetheless, I usually try to work these things backwards.  Too many homers = too many AA pitchers getting significant innings.  Too many errors = overmatched fielders out of position..   In this case, I think it's more along the lines of "Are injuries up?" threads.   You've noticed something recently and it jumps out at you.   The number of OF assists just don't back up what you're seeing.
6/12/2011 10:08 PM
mfahie
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But I've been noticing it for about 2 years now.  BTW it happened again in the am game, to the other team. So that's 8 times in 21 games.

I don't dispute that the overall OF assist totals are somewhat close to RL, but I'm certain that OF-C assists are significantly higher.

Now that I've pointed it out, for those who read boxscores, see if you notice it...
6/13/2011 7:29 AM
MikeT23
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I checked about a dozen recent games with my teams.  No runners were thrown out at the plate.
6/13/2011 8:53 AM
soursurfer
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Posted by mfahie on 6/12/2011 9:25:00 PM (view original):
And mine are 26,26,33,28.  I'm having a hard time finding team OF assist stats, but the Mets had about 21 last year, so obviously the HBD numbers certainly aren't way out of line.  However, I'm not at all convinced that the number of OF-catcher assists is also in line with MLB.  For instance, just today in MLB, 2 players were thrown out at 3rd trying to get there from first. And I can't ever recall seeing a guy in HBD get thrown out trying to stretch a double, which I've certainly seen in MLB.

So I guess the OF assists even out overall.  But I can't help but hate to see runs/baserunners taken away on the stupid choice to go for home when you're not pretty sure to make it. Of course I like it when my guys get those assists in terms of the game, but it still tweaks me in terms of realism. 

Like I said, it's my pet peeve.

Did you mean runners trying to stretch a double into a triple?  I'm not sure I've seen that, I'd have to keep my eyes open for it.  But I've definitely seen players get thrown out at second trying to stretch a single into a double.  Happened just yesterday to one of my players.

I do sometimes feel like OF assists, of any flavor, "feel" high, but like Mike says, it's just because you get some flare-ups and you start to hone in on them and you notice every last one.  I have turned my baserunning aggressiveness down from time to time with success.  I don't really think it impacted my W-L that much but certainly helped my peace of mind.

6/13/2011 10:28 AM
rocketcy
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I checked about 20 games and had 3 runners thrown out at home over that span and I mostly set my baserunning to "aggressive."  

My personal feeling has always been that there are too many HBP, but that's probably because I'm leading my league in HBP and one of my top starters w/ 84 Control is leading the league in HBP and because it's cost me a few games, but if compare our league rates, 8.8 HBP/1000PA, to MLB I find out that...well look at that...8.4 HBP/1000PA, it's even more similar than I expected.  
6/13/2011 10:45 AM
MikeT23
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HBP seems to be decided by batter's temper.   Pitcher control doesn't seem to play a part.
6/13/2011 10:50 AM
rocketcy
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Interesting.  I thought about pitcher's temper, but didn't find a correlation and never considered batter's temper.  The same teams seem to be somewhat bunched together from year to year for pitcher HBP...I guess that means they just have another team in their division, i.e. that they play more frequently, that's loaded w/ angry young men. 
6/13/2011 11:21 AM
MikeT23
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Check player records in your world.  Single season or career.  The HBP leaders will have two things in common.  1.  A lot of AB   2.  A low temper rating.

The pitcher list will probably just be a lot of IP.
6/13/2011 1:29 PM
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