Time for another rant... Topic

AlCheez
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Posted by 98greenc5 on 8/30/2011 11:09:00 AM (view original):
The only other quasi-solution I can think of is to reverse the way FA signings occur

Right now, the "best" FAs tend to not sign until the end of the signing period. I don't know if the engine is programmed that way (best guys wait the longest), or an indirect result (the engine waits longer if there are more offers, which tend to happen with the best guys). The less-than-perfect guys sign earlier, so if you miss the stud (and all but one will) you could be left out.

If they changed the logic so that the studs signed early, people would know where they stand and everybody could move on to the next-best-thing.

I'm sure this creates other issues I haven't thought about, but it does address some of the issues in the original rant
I think it's indirect - one year when we had a really loaded FA in class in one of my worlds, several top end free agents signed as soon as they could, while a bunch of similar free agents waited to the end, and signed for a lot more - presumably because those were the ones people chose to battle over.

Regardless, this seems like a decent idea, if it could be implemented well - which I doubt.
8/30/2011 11:33 AM
MikeT23
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Posted by 98greenc5 on 8/30/2011 11:23:00 AM (view original):
ctg

CAT TURD GUM!!!!

8/30/2011 11:38 AM
silentpadna
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Posted by tomhighway on 8/30/2011 2:53:00 AM (view original):
That's how FA works... Real life is no different.
That's not how it works in real life, as stated further down the thread.  FA's may sign late or last minute, but that doesn't prevent teams from having multiple offers out and either choosing from those that bite, or choosing not to move forward.  The element of competition between players to get to certain teams is missing from HBD. 

For example if Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez were FA's and there were multiple teams after them, both may want to sign with the Cubs.  The Cubs have money for one, but offers to both. 

When teams negotiate with players, one of their negotiating tactics is that "if you don't sign soon, we're going to have to go another direction".  Here, all it is is an auction with a deadline.  And, as Mike pointed out, it doesn't prevent teams like the Yankees from driving up prices for their competition.

The fact that you cannot put multiple offers out there is what makes the FA NOT like real life.

8/30/2011 11:57 AM
mhulshult
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This is one of those cases where real life doesn't translate into a good thing for the internet game.  If I've got $10MM left over in player payroll in the middle of free agency and don't plan on signing anyone else (or may be looking for a 25th man), I may think it's worth it to put out an offer of $10MM to 20 different guys so that $10MM becomes the new price point to beat.  Sure I'll get stuck with overpaying one of them, but in the mean time I've taken a bunch of $3-6MM players and forced their price up to at least $10MM.

The other issue is what happens after your 1 player signs and your other 19 offers get voided.
8/30/2011 12:19 PM
MikeT23
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I wonder if limiting the times you can counter-offer would work?    One bid, one counter and that's it.   That would stop owners from "gauging" the market by increasing their bids by 200k over and over again.    That way, Owner A wouldn't lose the player on the last cycle to another owner using that strategy.    If you're sitting there with high bid at 12m for 9 cycles, you won't be beaten by some clown who started at 10m and finally bids 12.1m just before the player signs.  He could obviously still offer 10m and then 12.1m as his counter but he wouldn't be able to move incrementally until he gets there.
8/30/2011 12:20 PM
Jtpsops
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Posted by MikeT23 on 8/30/2011 10:20:00 AM (view original):
He wants to make multiple offers.   IOW, if he has 10m, he wants to make 9.8m offers to every FA he wants(or something along that line) so he can get a player rather than get shut out. 
Actually that's not what I said at all. If you read my post, it suggests putting a limit on it. E.G., you can bid $10mil more than your available cap space.  That doesn't allow you to bid on every FA out there.

But in cases like my example, it would allow guys to still have a contingency plan on the table if a FA bails at the last second. I had no reason to believe my FA would receive a better offer when no one had topped mine in over 24 hours.  I bid high and apparently someone lost out on a bigger name guy and decided at the last possible second to go after my guy, who I'd wisely targeted from the beginning to avoid the top FAs.  That's not strategy on the other owner's part, that's luck of the draw.  The FA he was after happened to sign first, so he scooped mine.

(And PS: It could also backfire.  If I have $15mil in cap space and put it towards a top FA, then put out an additional $10mil as a contingency plan, and that guy happens to sign first, then maybe I just screwed myself out of the better guy who would have signed with me.)

To me, it doesn't create a good, competitive game when you have to isolate one FA at the beginning and put everything in to him, and then hope that if he doesn't sign with you, you still have time/options to sign someone else.  That's musical chairs, not competitive baseball.
8/30/2011 12:31 PM (edited)
MikeT23
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So 10m works for you?  Well let's change the game so you're happy!!!

Maybe somebody else thinks 20m in a good number.  Or maybe 30m(the max you can bid on a single season).    Why not those numbers?
8/30/2011 12:31 PM
shobob
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I've read all of the arguments against going over your cap with free agent offers, but I don't see a problem with it.  Artificially raising the price of free agents is a bit of a dirty move, but it happens in real life, so why not here?
8/30/2011 12:31 PM
MikeT23
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Because we have enough dirty moves already?
8/30/2011 12:32 PM
mhulshult
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It's not unrealistic for a MLB team to go after a high-profile free agent, have lower-tier guys sign with other teams during those negotiations, only to then lose out on the high-profile guy and have to settle for guys on the scrap heap.  That part of the equation applies in real life.
8/30/2011 12:34 PM
MikeT23
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I'm not even sure "real-life" can be applied here.   In real-life, we know who the teams are.     When was the last time a big-time FA signed with KC or Pitt?   When was the last time a big-time FA signed with anyone and we thought "Whoa!  I didn't even know they were in the running?"  HBD doesn't always mirror real-life.

But, if you want a "real-life" situation, go back no further than last season.   It was a gimme that Lee was signing with the Yanks.  Their back-up plan didn't exist.  When he signed with Philly, the Yanks moved to Colon, Prior and Garcia because they were the "best" options left. 
8/30/2011 12:41 PM
Jtpsops
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Posted by MikeT23 on 8/30/2011 12:41:00 PM (view original):
I'm not even sure "real-life" can be applied here.   In real-life, we know who the teams are.     When was the last time a big-time FA signed with KC or Pitt?   When was the last time a big-time FA signed with anyone and we thought "Whoa!  I didn't even know they were in the running?"  HBD doesn't always mirror real-life.

But, if you want a "real-life" situation, go back no further than last season.   It was a gimme that Lee was signing with the Yanks.  Their back-up plan didn't exist.  When he signed with Philly, the Yanks moved to Colon, Prior and Garcia because they were the "best" options left. 
Funny that you mention Lee in the second part of that post, because he's the answer to your question in the first part.  No one even knew Philly was in the mix when Lee signed with them. I also recall the Marlins shocking everyone when they snagged Delgado after he left the Jays.

And how many guys with HBD ratings like Colon would have had pre-season perform as well as he has this year?  We don't luck out like that in this game.
8/30/2011 1:36 PM (edited)
tufft
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Posted by mhulshult on 8/30/2011 12:20:00 PM (view original):
This is one of those cases where real life doesn't translate into a good thing for the internet game.  If I've got $10MM left over in player payroll in the middle of free agency and don't plan on signing anyone else (or may be looking for a 25th man), I may think it's worth it to put out an offer of $10MM to 20 different guys so that $10MM becomes the new price point to beat.  Sure I'll get stuck with overpaying one of them, but in the mean time I've taken a bunch of $3-6MM players and forced their price up to at least $10MM.

The other issue is what happens after your 1 player signs and your other 19 offers get voided.
I'm not following this argument at all.

You bid $10MM for a bunch of players asking for $3-6MM. 

If the algorithm worked better, since you way overbid their request and there is no other offer close to yours, one of them would accept on the next cycle.

If there's a new high bidder on one of the other players, that owner get an email that tells them they are now the high offer.

If there's no high bidder on the other players, they remain on the market with no change to their asking price.

An email could go to every owner who ever got a "You were outbid" email from every player you bid on & didn't sign with you saying the offer has been pulled and all offers are being considered.

The algorithm now is very simplistic.  IMO, it would not be hard to improve it by making it more realistic.  But since WIS seems to have stopped development, doubtful it will happen.

8/30/2011 1:49 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by Jtpsops on 8/30/2011 1:36:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 8/30/2011 12:41:00 PM (view original):
I'm not even sure "real-life" can be applied here.   In real-life, we know who the teams are.     When was the last time a big-time FA signed with KC or Pitt?   When was the last time a big-time FA signed with anyone and we thought "Whoa!  I didn't even know they were in the running?"  HBD doesn't always mirror real-life.

But, if you want a "real-life" situation, go back no further than last season.   It was a gimme that Lee was signing with the Yanks.  Their back-up plan didn't exist.  When he signed with Philly, the Yanks moved to Colon, Prior and Garcia because they were the "best" options left. 
Funny that you mention Lee in the second part of that post, because he's the answer to your question in the first part.  No one even knew Philly was in the mix when Lee signed with them. I also recall the Marlins shocking everyone when they snagged Delgado after he left the Jays.

And how many guys with HBD ratings like Colon would have had pre-season perform as well as he has this year?  We don't luck out like that in this game.
No one knew Philly was in the mix?   Do you follow baseball?
8/30/2011 2:18 PM
Jtpsops
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Yes sir, I do.  And if you followed anything at that time, it was "down to NY and Texas".  No one expected him to go to Philly.

So, the answer to your first question is:  Cliff Lee.  Keep up.

8/30/2011 2:31 PM
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