Posted by brianjw on 12/7/2011 7:33:00 AM (view original):
It doesn't look like a bug to me. The league is averaging 129 pitches per game. That's on a reasonable average of 3.3 pitches per PA. My rule of thumb is that you need 11IP/162 for every pitch per game to avoid fatigue problems. So we would be doing fine if the average team had about 1420IP. But we don't have anything like that, so we are getting into fatigue problems.
129 pitches per game and 3.3 pitches per PA do sound reasonable. Could you explain how you got the 11IP/162 number? By my calculations, using 129 pitches per game (or my team's average of 125), my staff should be perfectly rested. I have 1306 IP's. 1306 * 110% usage = 1436 IP. 1436 IP * 15 pitches per inning = 21540 total pitches for the year. 21540 total pitches / 162 games = 133 pitches per game.
So it should seem like anyone with over 1306 IP's should be ok theoretically. My average of 125 pitches per game is way under the 133 mark, but still my rotation is about to collapse.