How often do upsets happen in MLB playoffs? Topic

I’m a newbie to all this - still hoping for my first title. But, a few months ago, when I was trying to figure stuff out before I entered my first team, I read pretty much every thread I could find, plus all the Q & A’s. The info below is copied from the Q & A’s for SimLeague Baseball. It’s really old, but I would suspect still fairly accurately reflects “who wins” come playoff time. (By the way, my thanks to you guys who regularly post to the forums. It really helps us new guys work through the learning curve.)


Here are the actual stats as of 10/1/2003:
Theme Leagues ONLY

Seed % Playoffs Won
#1 36%
#2 26%
#3* 17%
#4* 21%

Open Leagues

Seed % Playoffs Won
#1 42%
#2 26%
#3* 14%
#4* 18%

These statistics reflect the general increase in competition level in theme leagues. Overall the top 2 seeds will win 64.2% in theme leagues, 68.3% in open leagues and 67.2% overall.

*Keep in mind that the #4 seed (wildcard winner) could have up to the 2nd best record overall in that league whereas the #3 seed (division winner with the worst record) can have no better than the 3rd best record overall.

10/12/2019 9:54 PM
Upsets happen all the time in most sports (NBA being the biggest exception though this year is an anomaly). But modern baseball? Happens all the time. Which team has the best 1-2 starting pitchers has far more impact in a 5 or 7 game series than it does over the course of 162 game season.
9/21/2020 9:47 AM
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How often do upsets happen in MLB playoffs? Topic

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