I think that comment in parenthesis makes the key point...
The divisional races are key.... I think the luck of the teams in your division matters MUCH more than the AAA players you draw. In a tight division, I'm playing my key players more, and a little tired, to make sure I win. If I have a big lead, my AAA guys will get more PA. If I am losing badly... I might not give the league my full attention, adjusting it every couple of days instead of nearly every day.
I think the AAA draw has, at best, a 1-2 wins impact on the entire season. The division line up is more like 4-5 games (playing 36 games against .600 teams versus 36 against .400 teams)
I also think manager/gm abilities have a 2-3 game impact on the season. Who you bring up, when, how you prepare for the season...
Just my view... You see things differently, and I don't expect to change your opinion.