To further the example, Parrish was almost useless in Scottsdale(+2 HR to LF/RF).    He's been much better in Honolulu(-2/0 HR).

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/23/2015 6:34:00 PM (view original):
With that said, it's not a rating that should scare anyone off.   Good pitchers are good pitchers and they're always better than bad pitchers.   Just know a guy with a 16 GB will give up more homers than a 92 GB if they're comparable pitchers.    As I said, you might see a 1.23 WHIP and 4.28 ERA and think "That doesnt' look right."   If you do, look at HRA.  

That's just flat-out wrong, I'm sorry.  Your 16 gb might give up more VALUABLE homers than the 92 gb, hence the higher ERAs.  The reason for this is also related to control. If your guys with 16 gbfb and 92 gbfb each has sucky control, when each one walks the bases loaded to start an inning, the guy with high gb/fb is much more likely to minimize the damage because he is much more capable of getting 2 outs at once.  low gbfb will have to go flyout (sac fly) flyout (sac fly) flyout to get out of that inning where as high gbfb gets all kinds of crazy 3-2-3 double plays. Low gbfb has to go 3 batters to give up 2 runs, high gbfb can get 3 outs on 2 batters and allow 0 runs. Also, that third batter for the fb pitcher is one extra guy who can hit a 2-run HR which also affects ERA. That is one of the only circumstances where gbfb directly impacts ERA. 

Notice how neither of those scenarios affected slugging % or HR rate whatsoever.  Over time that stuff adds up in the ERA column, but the point remains that gbfb is an attribute that does not directly affect the game the way you think it does

It would work the way you think it did if it defined groundball EVENTS. But it doesn't. As always, you are arguing for the sake of arguing

For ****'s sake.   The numbers, in HBD, back it up.  

Don't you understand that people can look it up?   You're wrong.    It happens.   That's just a fact.

I never said GB/FB is the sole reason for home-run rate. In fact, I said the opposite: No one rating is the sole factor in determining anything, which is why you can have examples — outliers — of 19 GB/FB allowing fewer HR than 80 GB/FB. But those are outliers based on sample size, incredibly good complementary skills, park factor, or incredibly good luck.

While not sole factors, though, some individual ratings are the driving force in certain results. Power is the overwhelming driver of home runs. Control is the overwhelming driver of walks. Eye is the driving factor of OBP. And yes, GB/FB is the driving factor in home runs. Whether that's because it creates more fly balls or because it turns more fly balls into home runs is irrelevant. When people post asking why a pitcher is underperforming (in their view), I always take a look. If the ERA is inflated compared to WHIP — which is often the case in those examples — GB/FB is almost always horrible.

I could not care less how the event tree causes that to happen, but do care that it happens.

You're free to have a different opinion, but when that belief is presented as fact it should have numbers to back it up. New players don't know whom or what to believe, but anything presented with "I know" or "always" should be treated with skepticism. My skepticism caused me to take a look, and sure enough in 3 out of 3 cases GB/FB appears to be a huge factor in HR allowed. If 1 of the 3 had gone the other way, or even been close, I'd have presented the numbers with the notion that maybe GB/FB isn't the driving force. But none were close. A 20%, 29% and 31% correlation is consistent enough for me.

Best pitcher GB/FB rating on my team = 93.  He gave up 23 HRs in 206 innings last season.

Worst pitcher GB/FB rating on my team = 29.  He gave up 22 HRs in 205 innings.

It ain't just one rating doing it.

I. Never. Said. Just. One. Rating. Does. It. To quote "No one rating is the sole factor in determining anything, which is why you have ... outliers."

The 93 GB/FB pitcher has splits in the low 60s, P1-2 of 75-72. The 29 GB/FB P has low vL but superb vR (82) and VEL (87), with pitches of 88-71-76-80-30. Thus proving my point that great supplemental ratings overcome the one key rating. If you're saying that in general a pitcher with 29 GB is going to give up the same HR as a pitcher with 93, you're wrong. If you're saying 'Hey, I found one of those outliers!' then thank you.

All else being equal, pitchers with higher GB/FB will give up fewer homers. Hitters with higher power will hit more home runs. That doesn't mean you can't find a guy with 30 power who hits more HR in a given season than someone with 90 power.

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/23/2015 6:42:00 PM (view original):

Here's an example.    Two similar pitchers on my team.   Almost identical WHIP on their careers, ratings close enough with one having 25ish lower GB.

Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Wilkin Soriano
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Lewis Parrish

On their careers, a .20 difference in ERA with .01 in WHIP.   All because of homers given up by the lower GB guy.    It stands true almost thru entire HBD.

This.  Generally, throughout their careers, Parrish has the "better" ratings.

Their WHIP is very similar.    And Parrish, in a HR park, sucked balls.

Lou Hendrickson 's gbfb is 62 but his HR rate is much higher than Timothy Carreon's 35 gbfb because Hendrickson's gets chopped into pieces by LH batters, and because Carreon has slightly better control and P1 and P2.  Derrik Hayes had one of the best seasons i've ever seen, better HR rate than either of them despite having 50 gbfb and average splits, because he has 90 control with two 88+ pitches and above average p3-p5s. Similar story for Adrian Sparks, his control is only 77 but his pitches are as good as any player in the league. His 83 gbfb is a bonus in the sense that when he walks guys he gets extra double plays. Melky Quixote is only 62 vR but with his combo of pitches and 95 control he's virtually unhittable. For the hell of it you can even go into your minors for pointless guys like Yimi Lee, gbfb of 12 but 1 career HR in 50 IP because his control, splits, and P1-P2 are all way higher than average for his level.

Similar logic applies to Reggie Page, his gbfb is a whopping 98, but he gives up tons of HR (S32 18 HR in 82 IP) because his control is 64 and his weakside split is 64. Players like Page can be serviceable for long periods of time because they have the ability to get in and out of jams thanks to high pitches and gbfb, but to say that gbfb itself has anything to do with slugging percentage and/or HR rate is utterly false because WIS defines gbfb as groundball OUTS rather than groundball EVENTS

Next time just say thanks for the free help I'm giving you

Lewis Parrish gives up HR because batters are taking his 73 P1 with 83 control to the yard on a consistent basis

Wilkin Soriano gives up HR because 55 control and sub-50 P3 and P4, that control rating doesn't just mean he misses in the dirt, he's missing over the plate also. Tater city

Yeah, that's how this game works.





Quit equating HBD to MLB.    Dumbass.