Round 1 110M Roster Analysis, 2018 Topic

I'll use pitching as an example since things are more obvious there. Most of this is just deductive reasoning on my part, and the actual math behind it may differ somewhat.

The 1950's have one pitcher with over 200 IP and a raw WHIP under 1.00 (it's 0.99), and his HR/9 is an unusable 1.11. It's the same story with ERC, with no starters being under 2.00 (lowest is 2.24). For context, the deadball era (both decades together) has 79 starters under 1.00 WHIP and 104 under 2.00 ERC.

The question is about normalization though, and the answer is in how normalization is applied. A pitcher with a 200 ERC+ from both decades did the same relative to their season, but this does not mean that they will perform the same. Rather, it describes how they will perform relative to their year's averages (I am not sure if this is median or mean). So, the 200 ERC+ pitcher from 1950 vs 1910 will perform equally well compared to other pitchers from that year.

Additionally, the sim does not just use these normalized weights, it also looks at raw stats.

Combined, with the fact that deadball pitchers (and pretty much every other decade) has better raw stats than the 1950's, and the related fact that those league averages are worse to begin with, it renders 1950's guys really tough to use effectively unless they are extreme outliers like Jim Hearn or Barry Latman (and, even then, there are better values from a $/IP with respect to ERC# perspective).

One could argue that this should be reflected more in their $/IP (I would agree with this), but that's a different discussion.

Last callout is that most 1950's pitchers have average-at-best HR/9# rates, relative to other decades. I take this into serious consideration when I build teams to avoid dumb losses.
9/4/2018 5:54 PM (edited)
Midway notes:

This team wasn't hitting at all, and for the longest time wasn't wining many games as a result. The pitching has been solid as I expected, and that kept them from falling out of it totally. Eventually some players have started to get it going and they've been able to get above .500 and only 2 games out. I didn't give up on this crew and they've given me reason to believe even more as they've fought back into the race. I'm really hopeful that they have a strong second half waiting for them. It's going to be a great race!
9/16/2018 12:20 PM
In 4A, 5 1915 teams made the playoffs and 3 are in the final 4. Seems like it was a good year choice.
10/16/2018 9:29 AM
in 4B, 3 of our 5 teams from 1915 made the playoffs, along with 2 from 1911, 1 from 1914, and 1 from 1916.

Final four is 1911, 1915, 1916 and 1986. I'm the last 1915 standing.
10/16/2018 12:22 PM
1915 was a great choice but, looking at disco's team, 1911 was the best choice
10/16/2018 12:27 PM
Posted by ozomatli on 10/16/2018 12:27:00 PM (view original):
1915 was a great choice but, looking at disco's team, 1911 was the best choice
You mean the team I upset in the division series? Clearly 1915 was superior. (jk)
10/16/2018 12:29 PM
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Round 1 110M Roster Analysis, 2018 Topic

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