Posted by dedelman on 4/15/2020 5:55:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tlowster on 4/15/2020 5:43:00 PM (view original):
Right now you are about 55 games into the regular season. I bet you a six pack of cold beer that if you put him in there as a tandemB after a left handed starter for the rest of the season and give him the innings that he can pitch (35 target/45 max; with a pull of 2), he will give up an OPS of about 700. And that is more than passable at the MLB level.
I mean, anything can happen over the 70 IP trial you're proposing. But his major league ERA, in Rochester, in the no-DH league, would be in the low 5's given a 400-500 IP trial. You can find guys like him, perhaps a little better, every year in the Rule 5 draft, even in a good world.
Speaking of cold beeer, I may have had a few already so i apologize if this comes off as being an AZZ.
I admit that I cheated a little bit -- right now the guy is having a pretty good season despite the ERA above 5.00, he has given up an OPS of below 700. Respectfully, I don't know if i agree with the above and i will give two reasons why.
1. I think this game punishes low inning relievers. The above guy is not a low inning reliever, but he was played as a low inning reliever [I assume] because of his uniqueness and uncertainty regarding how he'll perform. I have seen highly rated guys with with the Dur of 50 and stamina of less than 20 under perform consistently across the Worlds in which i participate.
2. I think most veteran owners know you can get away with one wart on a pitcher as long as that wart isn't R split. Since this guy has two warts, most owners would steer clear of him. However, since his two warts are control and L split, if you can limit his exposure to Left handed hitters by putting him in situations where there are less left handed hitters (i.e. middle relief after a left handed pitcher has started the game is a good example because the starter lures out the right handed hitters and the if the starter doesn't go deep into the game, it is still too early for pinch hitters with the exception of the pitcher in the NL). This way, you have minimized one wart and the other wart isn't terrible at 50 -- basically a 50 control means that whatever batting average the pitcher gives up, you add 100 to that to end up at the OBP. I think if this pitcher is given the opportunity, he will will be an average MLB pitcher. Especially this year. I think he has under performed long enough and if given the opportunity this season, he will do fine.
Also, I am not sure what the situation is with the owner right now, but if the owner is running a team where he is expecting to get 90+ wins this season, I definitely keep this guy in a low inning role if you can afford to do so. However, if the team is only expected to win 75-85 games or less, I would tinker a bit. I think if you limit his exposure to left handed bats, he has the capacity to be an average pitcher. The point might be moot soon because he is about to hit Arb1 and you most likely don't pay a guy like him to stick around for 1.2 million. However, if it were me and he was still there as a free agent after rule 5, I would pick him up again for $600k and tinker with him again because I don't think he had a fair shake and his ratings are unique enough to where many owners are torn on him (based on many of the posts above).
Finally, each owner has their own set of opinions based on their experience in the game. I have met owners that have had 95+ win teams consistently and those owners wouldn't touch a guy like this because the rest of their team is so good that they don't need to worry about tinkering with a guy like this. However, for owners that are always looking to tinker and looking to find efficiencies, this guy is unique enough to offer some lessons.
Does anybody have an example of a guy that has dominant pitches like this, but similar splits and control? I would like to see what his stats show over a 400-500 IP sample.