33% update

Updated through 1/9 pm2 (54 games)
Round 1 Rank	Round 2 Rank	Overall Rank	Owner	Round 2 Season									Round 1 Total	Penalty	Total
				70M	90M	100M	110M	130M	140M	Wins	Win%	Last Cycle
1	2	1	ozomatli	35	34	30	28	29	32	188	0.580	4-2	696		536
3	4	2	jfranco77	30	32	24	31	30	34	181	0.559	3-3	664		513
4	3	3	jmissirlis	34	31	26	30	32	30	183	0.565	6-0	657		511.5
2	13	4	brianjw	28	25	26	25	25	29	158	0.488	0-6	693		504.5
5	16	5	mildnhazy	23	25	23	29	30	26	156	0.481	4-2	651		481.5
7	15	6	jbohrman	26	22	28	31	20	30	157	0.485	3-3	648		481
12	4	7	justinlee_24	34	32	33	30	25	27	181	0.559	3-3	592		477
6	19	8	buddhagamer	18	25	28	31	21	28	151	0.466	1-5	649		475.5
9	12	9	wink0094	23	25	31	21	31	28	159	0.491	2-4	630		474
10	13	10	crystalao	26	24	28	28	25	27	158	0.488	2-4	621		468.5
13	6	11	rbow923	31	30	28	28	27	30	174	0.537	1-5	585		466.5
8	20	12	discodemo	25	21	20	30	22	29	147	0.454	3-3	637		465.5
19	1	13	dippedncrack / schwarze	31	39	27	32	32	28	189	0.583	4-2	548		463
11	10	14	dougpalm	24	29	29	25	27	27	161	0.497	5-1	595		458.5
25	7	15	ejstockman	28	26	28	33	32	22	169	0.522	4-2	535		436.5
16	16	16	redcped	28	27	27	24	26	24	156	0.481	4-2	559		435.5
21	10	17	Jdh34	25	27	27	33	25	24	161	0.497	3-3	546		434
23	9	18	newarkwilder	30	25	32	22	25	28	162	0.500	3-3	541		432.5
14	23	18	mpitt76	26	24	32	18	23	18	141	0.435	2-4	583		432.5
17	16	20	Donburgh	27	27	19	31	30	22	156	0.481	4-2	551		431.5
15	20	21	Humdogs	26	27	22	14	30	28	147	0.454	2-4	564		429
22	8	22	mdc2276	22	27	31	23	37	27	167	0.515	3-3	545	13	426
18	22	23	odalisgagne	27	26	25	24	18	25	145	0.448	2-4	551		420.5
20	23	24	magicdreamer	21	18	24	27	26	25	141	0.435	4-2	547		414.5

Split by 162 game increments, ordered by Round 2 wins

Round 2 Rank	Overall Rank	Owner	1st 162 Games		2nd 162 Games		Wins	Win%	Points
			Wins	Rank	Wins	Rank
1	13	dippedncrack / schwarze	97	1	92	4	189	0.583	463
2	1	ozomatli	95	2	93	3	188	0.580	536
3	3	jmissirlis	85	10	98	1	183	0.565	511.5
4	2	jfranco77	91	4	90	5	181	0.559	513
4	7	justinlee_24	95	2	86	7	181	0.559	477
6	11	rbow923	88	6	86	7	174	0.537	466.5
7	15	ejstockman	75	17	94	2	169	0.522	436.5
8	22	mdc2276	90	5	77	15	167	0.515	426
9	18	newarkwilder	85	10	77	15	162	0.500	432.5
10	14	dougpalm	83	12	78	13	161	0.497	458.5
10	17	Jdh34	87	7	74	18	161	0.497	434
12	9	wink0094	76	16	83	11	159	0.491	474
13	4	brianjw	86	9	72	20	158	0.488	504.5
13	10	crystalao	87	7	71	21	158	0.488	468.5
15	6	jbohrman	79	13	78	13	157	0.485	481
16	5	mildnhazy	69	23	87	6	156	0.481	481.5
16	16	redcped	70	21	86	7	156	0.481	435.5
16	20	Donburgh	77	15	79	12	156	0.481	431.5
19	8	buddhagamer	75	17	76	17	151	0.466	475.5
20	12	discodemo	61	24	86	7	147	0.454	465.5
20	21	Humdogs	73	19	74	18	147	0.454	429
22	23	odalisgagne	79	13	66	24	145	0.448	420.5
23	18	mpitt76	71	20	70	23	141	0.435	432.5
23	24	magicdreamer	70	21	71	21	141	0.435	414.5

Looks like we are on pace to only have five 100 win teams total, though a few others are close

Also looks like disco had a decent rebound from his disaster in the first 162

Added StDev ranks to the Google Sheet since we are now through a notable portion of the season.

Initial observations: Many experienced owners are struggling this year. This is interesting since many owners said the themes were "somewhat easier" this year than past Round 2s. It's ironic that an increase in confidence was an indicator of more parity. Also, only 8 owners have a total StDev above 0. That means 16 people are at 0 or below, and implies a bunch-up occurring under .500, with only a few owners starting to break away from the pack.

The 10 teams off to the best starts are:

1. schwarze's incredible 90M team (stdev of 2.70!)
2. mdc2276's 130M team
3. jfranco77's 140M team
4. ozomatli's 70M team
5. jmissirlis's 70M team / justinlee_24's 70M team (tie)
6. justinlee_24's 100M team
7. ozomatli's 90M team
8. ozomatli's 140M team
9. newarkwilder's 100M team / mpitt76's 100M team (tie)

The teams off to the worst starts are (starting with the worst):

1. Humdogs's 110M team
2. mpitt76's 140M team
3. Donburgh's 100M team
4. buddhagamer's 70M team
5. magicdreamer's 90M team
6. odalisgagne's 130M team
7. discodemo's 100M team
8. mpitt76's 110M team
9. jbohrman's 130M team
10. Donburgh's 140M team / ejstockman's 140M team (tie)

One other note -- as would probably be expected, there's slightly less variation among win-loss records in Round 2 compared to Round 1. So, parity is generally higher. We can measure this by looking at the coefficient of variation for each league individually and overall. A higher number here indicates a wider distribution of W-L records.

Round____	Low1___	Low2___	Mid1___	Mid2___	High1___	High2___	Total
Round 1	0.14	0.19	0.12	0.14	0.18	0.16	0.11
Round 2	0.16	0.16	0.14	0.18	0.17	0.13	0.09

disco's record in 1 run games is the chief contributor to his poor record. My record in 1 run games is bad too and a big reason why my record stinks but disco's in particular is awful.

My luck has been bad in this round but the competition is pretty damn good. Also, I spent less time building teams this round: I just wanted to get them built and be done with it. That being said, I still think I can get one or two teams into the playoffs.

We've hit a high water mark at .495 overall and 11th in R2, and every team has between 31 and 34 wins ... but none of my teams is above 3rd place so making even one playoffs will take some luck.

noticed a glitch in the Google Doc Standings...Dippedncrack/schwarze somehow have zero projected playoff teams, despite the fact that schwarze's $90m team has more wins than any other team.

Good catch. I was having it search for "dippedncrack / schwarze" rather than "dippedncrack" or "schwarze"

This is a weird round. The difference in wins between 1st and 6th is 20. Go another 20 wins down and you'd be in 20th.

Posted by bagchucker on 1/8/2019 12:27:00 AM (view original):
stick with it kid

As it happens, I did. And I've actually pushed over .500 overall, so I'm pretty happy about that. The downside is no teams currently in a playoff position despite being 7th overall in the standings. Have to hope the upward trend at least gets us a couple teams in there to have a shot at moving up the board.

Only 5 owners can really be said to be doing "well" in Round 2 so far, by having a total stdev greater than 1. No one outside this group is above 0.47, and 16 of the remaining 19 are at 0.00 or below.

What's interesting is that this is actually a higher percentage of owners being greater than 1 than we had in Round 1 (13 / 72 compared to 5 / 24) but a lower percentage of owners are above 0.00 (40 / 72 compared to 8 / 24)

Rank		Owner	Stdev
Round 2	Overall		70M	90M	100M	110M	130M	140M	Total
1	1	ozomatli	2.59	1.65	1.03	-0.27	0.99	0.88	2.04
2	2	jmissirlis	1.35	0.78	1.40	0.46	1.21	0.88	1.81
3	5	justinlee_24	1.14	1.48	1.77	1.19	-0.55	0.10	1.63
4	12	dippedncrack / schwarze	0.52	2.35	0.47	0.82	0.77	0.10	1.57
5	3	jfranco77	1.14	0.78	-1.03	0.82	0.55	1.66	1.17

ozo I'm a little confused by the google sheet. On the left there is round 1, 2 and overall rank which I get. But then on the right there is total, projected rank and projected total. Can you explain how these all relate? Is the overall rank on the left the current overall ranking including the second round points (which seems to align with the "total" column) but not including the projected playoff points which is incorporated in the projected data on the right?