I ignored this thread as soon as I saw the players posted without W-L records.

SABRmetrics hates W-L, whereas the rest of the world kind of feels it's important to win more than you lose.

The 81 extra innings that Ducey gives Nashville results in:

94 hits
45 runs
41 earned runs
(-3) home runs
25 walks
64 strikeouts
5-5 W/L record

Also, approximately a .288 OAV, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 4.56 ERA.

I can't possibly understand how what you're getting from Ducey's extra 81 IP's make him a more viable CYA candidate than Sheldon.

I think, in real-life, the W/L would matter.    Not so much in HBD.   We utilize players in "odd" ways and really have very little control over what inning a guy is pulled.   If I put the PC at 70-80, he's throwing no more than 82-83 pitches.  If that gets him thru 4 2/3 with a 9 run lead, he's still coming out.   In the real world, the manager would never pull him until he qualifies for the win.   Same thing with PH ratings.   A pitcher losing 1-0 in the 7th will be PH for if the settings indicate that it should happen.  If a pitcher has a one-hitter(solo shot) in the 7th, most managers leave him in if he's not close to his PC.   Not so in HBD.

Posted by mchalesarmy on 2/21/2012 10:36:00 PM (view original):
But why use a "predictive" stat to compare a season that is already complete? They are useless to evaluate what ACTUALLY OCCURRED. Those are the stats that matter in award voting.

That is the problem. What the "advanced stats" show ME, is that Ducey had the season of his career, while Sheldon had a slightly "down" year. 

I vote for Ducey, due to his park and I think if he doesn't win it this year he may never win it at all. I am not the norm though. Most owners who bother to vote, look at straight line stats. I reward Ducey for having his career year.

He's actually already won one, and based on his ratings he will win another one.

Posted by tecwrg on 2/22/2012 8:35:00 AM (view original):
The 81 extra innings that Ducey gives Nashville results in:

94 hits
45 runs
41 earned runs
(-3) home runs
25 walks
64 strikeouts
5-5 W/L record

Also, approximately a .288 OAV, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 4.56 ERA.

I can't possibly understand how what you're getting from Ducey's extra 81 IP's make him a more viable CYA candidate than Sheldon.

What you are missing is you are assuming that for his first 200 innings he pitched like Sheldon then pitched like this the rest of the way.  His value is in his 3.00 era OVER 281 innings.  Not a 2 something over 200 and a 4.5 over 81.  In other words..
1) He is finishing games that Sheldon is not.  Would you rather have your bullpen pitcher pitching or your starter?
2) He is pitching in more games that Sheldon is not.  Would you rather have your #2 starter or #1 starter pitching?

You can add/subtract the stats, but the bottom line is Duceys value comes from his ability to be really really good over a longer period, rather then great over a shorter period.

You seem to be incapable of understanding that Honolulu had 1320 innings from it's staff that were better than .288 OAV/1.47 WHIP/4.56 ERA.    That's what they needed for the magical 81 innings that Sheldon didn't pitch to match Ducey's.   They didn't "lose" anything because Sheldon came out.   They were just much better when Sheldon was out there.

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 9:33:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 2/22/2012 8:35:00 AM (view original):
The 81 extra innings that Ducey gives Nashville results in:

94 hits
45 runs
41 earned runs
(-3) home runs
25 walks
64 strikeouts
5-5 W/L record

Also, approximately a .288 OAV, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 4.56 ERA.

I can't possibly understand how what you're getting from Ducey's extra 81 IP's make him a more viable CYA candidate than Sheldon.

What you are missing is you are assuming that for his first 200 innings he pitched like Sheldon then pitched like this the rest of the way.  His value is in his 3.00 era OVER 281 innings.  Not a 2 something over 200 and a 4.5 over 81.  In other words..
1) He is finishing games that Sheldon is not.  Would you rather have your bullpen pitcher pitching or your starter?
2) He is pitching in more games that Sheldon is not.  Would you rather have your #2 starter or #1 starter pitching?

You can add/subtract the stats, but the bottom line is Duceys value comes from his ability to be really really good over a longer period, rather then great over a shorter period.

I'm not assuming anything about the distribution of Ducey's additional IP's.  All those extra hits and runs are in there somewhere.  It doesn't really matter where.  It just matters that they are somewhere.

The gist of your argument seems to be that "more" is "better".  It's not.  It's just "more".  Maybe it adds value to your pitching staff, there's no question about that.  I'd love to have 286 IP's of an ERA around 3.00.

But the bottom line is that Sheldon's 205 IP's were of higher quality than Ducey's 286 IP.  It's that simple.

Posted by JFerg on 2/21/2012 11:06:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/21/2012 10:57:00 PM (view original):
There are certain numbers to use that we know work within the HBD world.   And there are numbers that have been brought into the conversation that may or may not have any place within the HBD world.

This:
I'm sure NONE of these people build their HBD while concentrating solely on Control, Velocity and GB/FB even though those EXACT pitchers would have the best FIP.

Does ERA and IP count as stats that work within the HBD world?  Does comparing a pitcher's actual earned runs allowed to what an average pitcher would have done in the same playing time work within the HBD world?  Does using a replacement level work?  Park effects?  'Cause that's all you need to make a case that the wrong guy won the award.  I just want to know at what point does that cross the line and no longer work.

Bobzilla

No, replacement level works differently here, and replacement level is WAR, an Advanced Metric. Believe me, I'm a Saber-Geek. I understand the real-life magic of WAR. But the shape of the talent pool is different here in many ways (example- the way Free Agents go about making contract demands), and the formula for valuing WAR, if one were to create one for HBD, would certainly give less weight to IP than in real life, because the constraints on bullpens here are far more sequential (needing to have enough guys to have a few available for all 162 games) than cumulative (needing to have enough guys to eat all the innings you will need your bullpen to throw) compared to real life. Also, the talent acquisition markets are less efficient here because (a) some owners are really bad at this game in ways no ML GM is, (b) you don't get fired if you lose for a bunch of years in a rebuilding effort, so some owners take a long-term approach that you just don't/can't see in real life, and (c) prospect development is a lot more certain than in real life. As a consequence, opportunities to acquire league-average or better players at very reasonable prices abound.

In other words, those 81 IP are worth far less here than they would be in real life, for a wide variety of reasons.

Also, you have not once mentioned OAV as a stat (a stat which works against Ducey) in part because, in real life, you've been trained (correctly) to filter it out because it's heavily loaded with fielding-dependant white noise and random variation, via BABIP. Here, it's a whole different ballgame. There's still white noise in BABIP, of course, but there's a lot less of it, and a lot more actual data, such that ignoring it doesn't make the picture clearer, as it does in real life. It makes the picture cloudier, because you're losing vital data without which an informed opinion cannot be rendered.

Posted by tecwrg on 2/22/2012 9:51:00 AM (view original):

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 9:33:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 2/22/2012 8:35:00 AM (view original):
The 81 extra innings that Ducey gives Nashville results in:

94 hits
45 runs
41 earned runs
(-3) home runs
25 walks
64 strikeouts
5-5 W/L record

Also, approximately a .288 OAV, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 4.56 ERA.

I can't possibly understand how what you're getting from Ducey's extra 81 IP's make him a more viable CYA candidate than Sheldon.

What you are missing is you are assuming that for his first 200 innings he pitched like Sheldon then pitched like this the rest of the way.  His value is in his 3.00 era OVER 281 innings.  Not a 2 something over 200 and a 4.5 over 81.  In other words..
1) He is finishing games that Sheldon is not.  Would you rather have your bullpen pitcher pitching or your starter?
2) He is pitching in more games that Sheldon is not.  Would you rather have your #2 starter or #1 starter pitching?

You can add/subtract the stats, but the bottom line is Duceys value comes from his ability to be really really good over a longer period, rather then great over a shorter period.

I'm not assuming anything about the distribution of Ducey's additional IP's.  All those extra hits and runs are in there somewhere.  It doesn't really matter where.  It just matters that they are somewhere.

The gist of your argument seems to be that "more" is "better".  It's not.  It's just "more".  Maybe it adds value to your pitching staff, there's no question about that.  I'd love to have 286 IP's of an ERA around 3.00.

But the bottom line is that Sheldon's 205 IP's were of higher quality than Ducey's 286 IP.  It's that simple.

Actually your wrong.  They were about the same when innings were factored in, but I dont expect you to understand that.

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 9:39:00 AM (view original):
You seem to be incapable of understanding that Honolulu had 1320 innings from it's staff that were better than .288 OAV/1.47 WHIP/4.56 ERA.    That's what they needed for the magical 81 innings that Sheldon didn't pitch to match Ducey's.   They didn't "lose" anything because Sheldon came out.   They were just much better when Sheldon was out there.

The fact that they were much better when Sheldon was out there is what they lost.

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 9:54:00 AM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 2/22/2012 9:39:00 AM (view original):
You seem to be incapable of understanding that Honolulu had 1320 innings from it's staff that were better than .288 OAV/1.47 WHIP/4.56 ERA.    That's what they needed for the magical 81 innings that Sheldon didn't pitch to match Ducey's.   They didn't "lose" anything because Sheldon came out.   They were just much better when Sheldon was out there.

The fact that they were much better when Sheldon was out there is what they lost.

Incorrect.   Even without his out there, they only had 150 innings on their entire that that wouldn't equal Ducey's production less Sheldon.

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 9:54:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 2/22/2012 9:51:00 AM (view original):

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 9:33:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 2/22/2012 8:35:00 AM (view original):
The 81 extra innings that Ducey gives Nashville results in:

94 hits
45 runs
41 earned runs
(-3) home runs
25 walks
64 strikeouts
5-5 W/L record

Also, approximately a .288 OAV, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 4.56 ERA.

I can't possibly understand how what you're getting from Ducey's extra 81 IP's make him a more viable CYA candidate than Sheldon.

What you are missing is you are assuming that for his first 200 innings he pitched like Sheldon then pitched like this the rest of the way.  His value is in his 3.00 era OVER 281 innings.  Not a 2 something over 200 and a 4.5 over 81.  In other words..
1) He is finishing games that Sheldon is not.  Would you rather have your bullpen pitcher pitching or your starter?
2) He is pitching in more games that Sheldon is not.  Would you rather have your #2 starter or #1 starter pitching?

You can add/subtract the stats, but the bottom line is Duceys value comes from his ability to be really really good over a longer period, rather then great over a shorter period.

I'm not assuming anything about the distribution of Ducey's additional IP's.  All those extra hits and runs are in there somewhere.  It doesn't really matter where.  It just matters that they are somewhere.

The gist of your argument seems to be that "more" is "better".  It's not.  It's just "more".  Maybe it adds value to your pitching staff, there's no question about that.  I'd love to have 286 IP's of an ERA around 3.00.

But the bottom line is that Sheldon's 205 IP's were of higher quality than Ducey's 286 IP.  It's that simple.

Actually your wrong.  They were about the same when innings were factored in, but I dont expect you to understand that.

"I don't expect you to understand that".

Quite arrogant and dismissive of you.  No wonder this thread has gone on for 20 pages.

Whatever, dude.

 

This is interesting stuff....until oriolemagic disregards all points and says "my guy threw more innings so he was better!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Sheldon pitched better.  ERA/Whip/OAV shows this quite obviously.  The extra 81 innings don't matter, Sheldon was the better pitcher.  No one is denying that they would like to have the extra innings.  But those innings don't make him better than Sheldon, just more durable.

Posted by tecwrg on 2/22/2012 10:01:00 AM (view original):

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 9:54:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 2/22/2012 9:51:00 AM (view original):

Posted by oriolemagic on 2/22/2012 9:33:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 2/22/2012 8:35:00 AM (view original):
The 81 extra innings that Ducey gives Nashville results in:

94 hits
45 runs
41 earned runs
(-3) home runs
25 walks
64 strikeouts
5-5 W/L record

Also, approximately a .288 OAV, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 4.56 ERA.

I can't possibly understand how what you're getting from Ducey's extra 81 IP's make him a more viable CYA candidate than Sheldon.

What you are missing is you are assuming that for his first 200 innings he pitched like Sheldon then pitched like this the rest of the way.  His value is in his 3.00 era OVER 281 innings.  Not a 2 something over 200 and a 4.5 over 81.  In other words..
1) He is finishing games that Sheldon is not.  Would you rather have your bullpen pitcher pitching or your starter?
2) He is pitching in more games that Sheldon is not.  Would you rather have your #2 starter or #1 starter pitching?

You can add/subtract the stats, but the bottom line is Duceys value comes from his ability to be really really good over a longer period, rather then great over a shorter period.

I'm not assuming anything about the distribution of Ducey's additional IP's.  All those extra hits and runs are in there somewhere.  It doesn't really matter where.  It just matters that they are somewhere.

The gist of your argument seems to be that "more" is "better".  It's not.  It's just "more".  Maybe it adds value to your pitching staff, there's no question about that.  I'd love to have 286 IP's of an ERA around 3.00.

But the bottom line is that Sheldon's 205 IP's were of higher quality than Ducey's 286 IP.  It's that simple.

Actually your wrong.  They were about the same when innings were factored in, but I dont expect you to understand that.

"I don't expect you to understand that".

Quite arrogant and dismissive of you.  No wonder this thread has gone on for 20 pages.

Whatever, dude.

 

If you read through any of the previous 20 pages and understood it you wouldnt be making these arguments, therefore I wouldnt expect you to understand where you are wrong.

Posted by frankum on 2/22/2012 10:06:00 AM (view original):
This is interesting stuff....until oriolemagic disregards all points and says "my guy threw more innings so he was better!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Sheldon pitched better.  ERA/Whip/OAV shows this quite obviously.  The extra 81 innings don't matter, Sheldon was the better pitcher.  No one is denying that they would like to have the extra innings.  But those innings don't make him better than Sheldon, just more durable.

I thought we moved past this already...  People please go back and READ the previous threads before you make a comment that sends us back 15 pages.